Libyan economy will be slow to recover

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Business Opportunities ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject The prospects for the Libyan economy. Significance Prior to 2011, Libya's oil and gas wealth and its proximity to Europe drew major energy companies and provided large business opportunities in other sectors. The conflict in 2011 and collapse of the government led many foreign companies to freeze their activities in the country. The political crisis and conflict since 2014 have compounded business and economic difficulties, with the rival political blocs also competing for control of public finances and national institutions and companies. Impacts Demand for migrant workers in Libya will remain steady. Infrastructure spending is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels before 2017. Growth and investment will be concentrated in the private sector.

Algerian energy sector's success hinges on investment

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Taking Charge ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Algeria's economic outlook. Significance The ongoing political crisis which led to the resignation of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has not yet made any measurable impact on the economy. Yet whoever ends up taking charge of the country’s affairs will face the challenge of galvanising an economy beset with deep structural flaws, amid growing financial pressures as oil and gas revenue is in decline and popular demands for higher public spending have become more insistent. Impacts Oil companies will remain engaged, although they may delay new major investments until there is more clarity on policy. Pressure on the dinar will mount, although thus far the exchange rate has remained stable despite the political turbulence. The government and other political stakeholders’ stance not to seek external financing may not be tenable for much longer.

Divisions plague Libya's financial institutions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Unstable Libya will be haven for salafi-jihadi groups

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Extremist Groups

Significance Salafi-jihadi groups in Libya benefit from the security vacuum emanating from the political crisis. IS has been regrouping after losing its headquarters in Sirte in 2016, even as it faces serious setbacks in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaida-affiliated groups also exploit the neglected south. Impacts A stalled political dialogue will give salafi-jihadi groups like IS the space to regroup, even amid airstrikes. Salafi-jihadi groups will engage in high-profile attacks, targeting government officials and foreigners. Persistent insecurity will inhibit Libyan efforts to reverse economic decline, especially if groups attack oil and gas sites. The spread of extremist groups raises business costs and compels neighbours to close borders, contributing to Libya’s economic isolation.

Belarus will pay more for oil as Russia gets tough

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Nuclear Plant ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Broadcast Media ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Political Narrative ◽  
The Government

Significance Lukashenka has made it clear he believes Russia is using oil and gas as weapons to bend him to its will and said two weeks ago that the Belarusian nation would 'eat him alive' if he acceded to Russian wishes for closer political union. Impacts Lukashenka has identified himself as defender of Belarusian nationhood but risks being blamed for any ensuing economic troubles. The government will try to control the political narrative by curbing access to Russian broadcast media. The start-up of the first reactor at the Astravets nuclear plant this year will cut gas import requirements by 25%, the president says.

Delayed Congolese election will prompt a crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Significance Crackdowns against the political opposition have increased as the government tries to stifle political dissent. The constitution mandates presidential and national assembly elections by late November, but the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, appears unwilling to leave office despite reaching his term limit. Impacts Tshisekedi's return will raise the stakes in the country's political crisis. Instability or political violence risks shattering DRC's fragile economic recovery. The UN could expand the mandate of its mission in the DRC depending on the outcome of the political process.

Algerian efforts to reduce imports lack conviction

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Subject The car import debate and dynamics of the social contract. Significance A longstanding weakness of the Algerian economy has been its overdependence on oil and gas for income, and on imports for consumption. The risks of this dependence were exposed when oil prices halved in the final quarter of 2014. The government has responded by trying to revive investment in both the oil and non-oil economy, and by seeking to curb imports. One important aspect of this latter policy -- new restrictions on car imports -- has sparked significant public debate and raised questions about the government's competence and political will. Impacts If the oil price sustains its recent rally to 60-65 dollars per barrel, the government will have some time to adjust. It would also allow the political elite to maintain the current balance of power. Algeria will not close its markets to foreign imports so long as it continues to seek WTO membership.

Kosovo's political calm may not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Limited Success ◽  
Tear Gas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Kosovo's temporary political truce. Significance The political crisis has calmed following nine months of steadily escalating unrest, marked by violent street demonstrations and the use of tear-gas in parliament. However, the underlying issues that provoked the unrest -- devolution to Kosovo's various ethnic Serb enclaves and a border treaty that cedes 2,500 hectares of disputed land to Montenegro -- are far from resolved. Accordingly, there is a high risk of a return to unrest in the near future. Impacts Failure to agree a common border with Montenegro will complicate bilateral relations at a time of growing regional instability. Unilateral devolution of power to Serb-majority municipalities risks creating a disputed breach in Kosovo's territorial integrity. Under EU pressure, the government will try to resolve the two key political issues, but with only limited success. Resumed violence will have damaging consequences for the economy, implementing the Brussels Agreement and Kosovo's passage towards the EU.

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