Unity deal reflects Western goals, not Libyan accord

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Congress

Significance The deal aims to create a Government of National Accord (GNA) to end the political crisis between the internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). However, there is strong opposition to the deal, not least from the presidents of the rival legislatures. Impacts The GNA will need to address concerns that it will be dominated by western Libyans, especially Misratans. Left unaddressed, this could open the door for renewed calls of autonomy or secessionism from the eastern Cyrenaica province. None of the Libyan factions will prioritise fighting ISG, but they will defend their territories.

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

New Tanzania leader may face resistance to reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economic Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Face ◽  
Low Cost Carrier

Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.

Divisions plague Libya's financial institutions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Prospects for US politics to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Lame Duck

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2018 Significance The midterm elections on November 6 will see the full 435-seat House of Representatives elected and one-third of the 100-seat Senate. Elections will also be held for most state legislatures and 36 of 50 governors. The onset of the midterms will influence what legislation is passed beforehand, what the outgoing Congress pursues in its 'lame duck' period after November and the political arithmetic post-January 2019, when the new 116th Congress convenes.

Haiti’s political crisis weighs on economic growth

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance Widespread political turmoil has prevented elections to choose new representatives and senators, as well as the approval of a budget. Protests against poverty and corruption have paralysed Haiti over the last year. The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis amid high levels of inflation, rapid currency depreciation and a contraction in GDP. The IMF put a 229-million-dollar loan on hold in June 2019 and has made its support conditional on solving the political crisis and adopting measures needed to stabilise the economy. Impacts Anti-government protests will linger as the opposition continues pressuring Moise to step down. Inflation is expected to pick up pace amid a weakening local currency and economic disruptions resulting from the political crisis. The public deficit will increase in the short term, hampered by a decline in revenue collection due to the economic downturn.

Maltese ruling party may survive murder scandal

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Government Contracts ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
To Come ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The investigation into the assassination of prominent journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia has taken a dramatic turn with the interrogation of senior Maltese government officials, the arraignment of a prominent business tycoon and the prime minister’s announcement that he will resign in January. Impacts Investigation of Caruana Galizia’s murder and large-scale corruption on government contracts will continue apace with unpredictable results. State institutions’ independence and government corruption will remain in the international spotlight. Malta will continue to come under significant scrutiny in EU institutions. Investigations into lucrative government contracts signed under the Labour administration will gain momentum and others may be opened. The political crisis will prove detrimental to business confidence.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

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