New Tanzania leader may face resistance to reform

Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.

Significance Opposition parties reject the new dates, stating that their main demand is for Nkurunziza to step down before polls take place. The new dates adhere to East African Community (EAC) recommendations to delay elections. While the regional bloc may have more influence over Burundi than other external players, it will struggle to play an effective diplomatic role in ending the political crisis. Impacts A prolonged crisis will worsen a poorly performing economy, which is heavily dependent on foreign support. Belgium, the largest donor, may cut further bilateral support should Nkurunziza secure a third mandate. Economic disruption continues to hurt agricultural supply chains across the country, risking food security.


2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Moen

Purpose – This paper aims to addresses the question how a low-cost carrier (LCC) embedded in a coordinated market economy is succeeding in a highly competitive industry with a strong cost focus. Design/methodology/approach – This paper reports the results of a case study of a LCC (Norwegian Air Shuttle). The case study draws on both organizational and institutional theory as to how the international business environment and the national institutional framework continuously impact on its strategies. Findings – It is found that home-country high wage levels and strong labour regulation have been overcome by developing firm-specific capabilities based on active employee involvement which aligns with the tradition of the national system of industrial relations. Research limitations/implications – The present case study provides an input for further research on how actors deal with conflicting pressures. It supports the varieties of capitalism (VOC) argument that national institutional arrangements influence firms and actors’ strategies and practices, but it also supports the call within institutional theories for a more malleable conceptualizing of the link between actors and institutions than is the case in the VOC models. Originality/value – The paper provides an account of a successful case in a highly competitive international business despite disadvantages linked with home-country institutions.


Subject Europe's airline industry. Significance Despite good performance over the past year, the underlying condition of the European airline industry has not changed. Major carriers are still facing competitive challenges from long-haul airlines based in the Gulf, especially Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, and from the European low-cost carrier (LCC) sector. Impacts The fallout from recent terrorist attacks could hit the industry's fragile recovery. Labour unrest in France will affect Air France, as its pilots voted on May 30 to go on strike over pay conditions. A UK exit from the EU would force its airlines, some of the most efficient in Europe, to reconsider the focus of their operations. New opportunities may arise from the Commission's efforts to negotiate aviation agreements with such countries as Brazil as well as ASEAN.


Significance The deal aims to create a Government of National Accord (GNA) to end the political crisis between the internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). However, there is strong opposition to the deal, not least from the presidents of the rival legislatures. Impacts The GNA will need to address concerns that it will be dominated by western Libyans, especially Misratans. Left unaddressed, this could open the door for renewed calls of autonomy or secessionism from the eastern Cyrenaica province. None of the Libyan factions will prioritise fighting ISG, but they will defend their territories.


Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.


Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.


Significance The airline is set to be privatised through strategic disinvestment, whereby a new minority shareholder can manage it. India’s flag carrier has in recent years incurred heavy losses. Impacts Any privatisation deal finally reached may prompt protests from Air India employees fearing job losses. The low-cost carrier IndiGo is likely to increase its dominance of the domestic aviation market. Delhi will step up plans to disinvest in other public sector undertakings (PSUs).


Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.


Significance Widespread political turmoil has prevented elections to choose new representatives and senators, as well as the approval of a budget. Protests against poverty and corruption have paralysed Haiti over the last year. The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis amid high levels of inflation, rapid currency depreciation and a contraction in GDP. The IMF put a 229-million-dollar loan on hold in June 2019 and has made its support conditional on solving the political crisis and adopting measures needed to stabilise the economy. Impacts Anti-government protests will linger as the opposition continues pressuring Moise to step down. Inflation is expected to pick up pace amid a weakening local currency and economic disruptions resulting from the political crisis. The public deficit will increase in the short term, hampered by a decline in revenue collection due to the economic downturn.


Significance The investigation into the assassination of prominent journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia has taken a dramatic turn with the interrogation of senior Maltese government officials, the arraignment of a prominent business tycoon and the prime minister’s announcement that he will resign in January. Impacts Investigation of Caruana Galizia’s murder and large-scale corruption on government contracts will continue apace with unpredictable results. State institutions’ independence and government corruption will remain in the international spotlight. Malta will continue to come under significant scrutiny in EU institutions. Investigations into lucrative government contracts signed under the Labour administration will gain momentum and others may be opened. The political crisis will prove detrimental to business confidence.


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