Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Subject Outlook for China's oil sector. Significance China's 'big three' oil companies have this month announced changes to their top management. The three companies have been under pressure from corruption investigations, and the collapse in global oil prices has weakened them financially. The latest reshuffles reveal the importance of politics in shaping the behaviour of China's oil and gas companies, and with it the competitive landscape of China's energy industry and global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions. Impacts There will be partial consolidation of some NOC assets, but 'mega-mergers' are unlikely. China's oil and gas companies will invest overseas with more robust government backing. Sinopec and CNPC will focus on upgrading refining capacity to meet more stringent fuel quality standards. Foreign investors will find new opportunities as the NOC's sell assets and the government opens the sector to private firms.


Subject Economic outlook and the impact of conflict. Significance July 11 marks the fourth anniversary of South Sudan's independence in 2011. Although the country has the modest advantage of a larger oil sector than most neighbouring countries, the country remains severely underdeveloped, with meagre infrastructure and high levels of poverty. In 2013 a political crisis at the centre of government led to a split in the ruling party and the eruption of an armed conflict with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) which has continued up to the present. Impacts The breakdown of peace talks between the government and SPLM-IO in March have ended plans to set up a national unity government by July. The new mediation framework involves a more direct role for donors, including the United Kingdom, Norway and the United States. Progress on reuniting parts of the ruling party may ease pressure on negotiations with the SPLM-IO.


Significance The violence is indicative of growing friction between local Tripolitanian militias under the influence of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and forces now loyal to the Government of National Unity (GNU), which in 2019 rallied from across western Libya to defend the capital from eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s siege. Impacts This is a last-ditch act by the UAE’s only remaining military assets in western Libya, and could provoke conflict with Turkish proxies. Violence involving Turkish-backed forces would refocus European attention on Ankara’s role in Libya and reignite pressure for a withdrawal. Renewed violence would end a recent economic revival in Tripoli, created by a period of peace and many reconstruction contracts.


Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.


Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.


Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.


Subject Mozambican debt revelations. Significance President Filipe Nyusi’s grip on the ruling FRELIMO has been strengthened after his and his party’s convincing (albeit disputed) election victory last month. Nevertheless, the poll triumph has quickly been eclipsed by recent US court revelations surrounding a long-standing hidden debts scandal, which has implicated leading FRELIMO figures. Nyusi’s embattled government hopes that economic developments will soon dominate the headlines as it ramps up major new liquefied natural gas (LNG) investments and attempts to convince the IMF to initiate a new funding programme. Impacts The government-RENAMO peace agreement will come under increasing pressure after evidence of FRELIMO-associated election fraud. Maputo's political and fiscal woes mean oil and gas companies will have free reign to implement their preferred investment plans. Civil society pressure for greater campaign financing transparency will prove fruitless amid FRELIMO resistance over the short term.


Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.


Subject Sudan political outlook. Significance In late February, President Omar al-Bashir launched a series of reshuffles within both his government and the security forces. While the changes came amid a national crisis -- and political crackdown -- related to Sudan’s economic near-collapse, it appears that the president is more focused on consolidating his power and preparing for re-election in 2020. Impacts The government is unlikely to find quick or lasting solutions to Sudan’s deep economic difficulties. Khartoum will continue to favour a security-first response to the ongoing political crisis and popular unrest. Bashir will look to defuse international opposition to his re-election ambitions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abba Ya'u ◽  
Natrah Saad ◽  
Abdulsalam Mas'ud

Inefficient tax system causes the government to lose a huge amount of revenue. Tax administrators are primarily responsible for collecting taxes due from taxpayers following the relevant tax laws and regulation in a way that instils confidence on taxpayers through efficient tax administration. This paper aims at validating relevant and reliable measurement scale for assessing the effectiveness of tax administration efficiency in dealing with oil and gas companies operating in the Nigerian oil sector. Hence, an adapted questionnaire comprising four items was administered on 300 local and multinational oil and gas companies in Nigeria. All the items were subjected to evaluations and validations by eight experts’ reviewers with cognate experience in oil and gas activities. Evaluation of reliability and validity of the measures of tax administration efficiency was performed through Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) using SPSS version 25 and Smart PLS version 3.8. The results provide evidence that the proposed tax administration efficiency scale attained reliability and validity criteria. Consequently, Policymakers, practitioners and researchers can adapt this scale to assess the effectiveness of tax administration efficiency by companies in different jurisdictions across the globe. This study expands existing literature and contributes new ideas to the subject area. By implication, the validated scale will assist oil and gas producing countries to come up with policies that ensures efficiency in tax administration and increase government revenues.


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