US dollar has firm fundamentals despite market doubts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
First Time ◽  
High Uncertainty

Subject The Dow Jones US stock market index rose above 20,000 for the first time on January 25 but in contrast the dollar has weakened recently, betraying investor nerves about upcoming US policies. Significance After surging by more than 5.5% in the seven weeks following the US election, the dollar has fallen by 2.7% since December 20 amid signs that investor enthusiasm for the shift to reflationary policies is waning. US President Donald Trump’s protectionist and anti-establishment inaugural address on January 20 reinforced the downturn. Trump has also questioned the United States' long-standing ‘strong dollar’ policy -- clouding the outlook further as more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate rises will increase the attractiveness of the dollar, potentially setting the Fed on a collision course with Trump. Impacts Fears of an abrupt end to the 30-year bull market in government bonds have eased because of high uncertainty over Trump’s economic policies. The yen has plunged 9% since the US election, leading to a double-digit rise in equities -- and restoring some confidence in ‘Abenomics’. The spread between the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds and its German equivalent is 187 basis-points, reflecting monetary divergence.

‘Trumpflation’ trading may run out of steam in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
President Elect ◽  
International Investors ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject The Fed’s more hawkish stance underpins ‘Trumpflation’ trade. Significance The US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled a faster-than-anticipated pace of 2017 monetary tightening in its interest rate meeting earlier this month, driving the dollar and US Treasury yields higher. International investors are positioning themselves to take advantage of reflationary economic policies once President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month. The policy-sensitive yield on two-year US Treasury bonds has risen to the highest level since late 2009 while the dollar index has surged to a 14-year high. Impacts The euro is likely to remain weak, keeping it on course to reach parity with the dollar for the first time since 2002 next year. Having peaked at 13.4 trillion dollars in August, the stock of negative-yielding debt is likely to continue to fall. Relations between the Fed and the Trump administration could deteriorate if the two criticise each other’s policies. If public investment does rise sharply, encouraging faster tightening, this could discourage and crowd out private investment.

Subdued inflation attenuates bond market strains

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Bubbles ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Bond markets outlook. Significance Eurostat today reported that the euro-area economy grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in October-December 2017, and by 2.6% in the whole of 2017, outpacing growth of 2.3% in the United States and 1.8% in the United Kingdom. The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds has surpassed the level it reached after Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory when investors positioned themselves for higher growth and prices. The tax bill and modestly rising prices have reinvigorated the ‘trumpflation trade’ of investors shifting from bonds to equities. Signs that the ECB may start withdrawing monetary stimulus faster than expected, coupled with robust global GDP growth, are putting further upward pressure on global yields. Impacts The US treasury secretary’s Davos remarks that a weaker dollar helps US activity could fuel further euro strength, challenging ECB policy. This month’s IMF update upgraded its global growth forecasts but warned of risks, especially asset bubbles and financial vulnerabilities. Global equity fund inflows are surging, fuelling dangerous overvaluations in certain sectors including technology.

Amid many unknowns, EM assets will remain strained

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics

Subject Emerging markets under strain from dollar rally. Significance The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on January 6 that average hourly earnings grew at the fastest pace since 2009 in December -- a further fillip to the ‘trumpflation trade’ that has gripped financial markets since the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Expectations of further Fed rate increases have driven the dollar index and the ten-year Treasury bond yield higher, straining emerging market (EM) assets. EM mutual equity funds have suffered a wave of uninterrupted outflows since Trump’s victory. The Mexican peso and the Turkish lira have plumbed record lows against the dollar. Impacts Many EMs are preparing to sell dollar-denominated debt in anticipation of higher borrowing costs, including Argentina, Brazil and Nigeria. Speculative bets against US Treasury bonds have risen to a record high amid expectations of higher US inflation and further rate hikes. The stock of negative-yielding government bonds stands at 10.8 trillion dollars, fuelling demand for higher-yielding securities. In April, the US Treasury’s next Foreign Exchange Report could label China a currency manipulator though the criteria would need to change.

Fed and ECB will ease Central European policy dilemmas

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Push Down

Subject Impact of global policy shifts on monetary policy in Central Europe. Significance The dramatic decline in euro-area government bond yields has helped push down yields across Central Europe, with bond markets now pricing in interest rate cuts in the Czech Republic, only a month after the Czech National Bank (CNB) increased borrowing costs to 2%. However, the scope for monetary stimulus in Central Europe is limited, thanks to inflationary pressures. Impacts MSCI’s index for Polish, Hungarian and Czech equities is rising, despite a slight loss for the broader emerging market index. Government bonds are rallying sharply in both developed and developing economies as ten-year US Treasury bonds fall. The Brent crude international oil benchmark has reached 65 dollars/barrel thanks to escalating US-Iranian tensions and dollar weakness.

Neurosurgical workforce trends in the United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 102 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oren N. Gottfried ◽  
Richard L. Rovit ◽  
A. John Popp ◽  
Kristin L. Kraus ◽  
Arlene Stolper Simon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Mean ◽  
First Time ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Fine Print

Object. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the US neurosurgery workforce by reviewing journal recruitment advertisements published during the past 10 years. Methods. The number of available academic and private neurosurgical staff positions was determined based on recruitment advertisements in the Journal of Neurosurgery and Neurosurgery for the 10-year period from 1994 to 2003. Advertisements were evaluated for practice venue, subspecialization, and location. The numbers of active neurosurgeons and graduating residents also were reviewed. The number of advertised neurosurgical positions increased from 141.6 ± 38.2 per year from 1994 through 1998 to 282.4 ± 13.6 per year from 1999 through 2003 (mean ± standard deviation, p < 0.05). The mean number of academic positions increased from 50.6 ± 11.1 to 95 ± 17.5 (p <0.05), and the mean number of private positions rose from 91 ± 30.4 to 187.4 ± 6.8 (p <0.05). Subspecialty positions represented a mean of only 15.6 ± 5% per year during the first time period and 18.8 ± 3% per year in the second period (p = 0.22), and therefore the majority of positions advertised continued to be those for generalists. The number of practicing neurosurgeons declined after 1998, and by 2002 it was less than it had been in 1991. The numbers of incoming and matriculating residents during the study period were static. Conclusions. The number of recruitment advertisements for neurosurgeons during the last 5 years has increased significantly, concomitant with a severe decline in the number of active neurosurgeons and a static supply of residents.

An affordable, sustainable tourist QoL model: the case study of Appalachian mountain towns

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. McGrath
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Appalachian Mountain ◽  
The Us ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Index Value ◽  
First Time

PurposeThis article proposes a model for benchmarking tourism quality of life (QoL) that is practical and affordable to implement by communities of all sizes. The model is tested on a group of 30 mountain towns in the Appalachian region of the United States.Design/methodology/approachAn existing model measuring resident QoL from Roanoke, Virginia, is discussed and a new model for tourist QoL is proposed. Both models employ secondary data from free sources to calculate a practical, affordable and quantifiable QoL index.FindingsAnalysis of the data indicates the Appalachian mountain town with the highest tourist QoL score is Lynchburg, Virginia, with a composite QoL index value of 128, followed closely by Charlottesville, Virginia, with an index of 126 (where an index of 100 = the US national average).Practical implicationsA tourist QoL model has practical value because it can be used by local policymakers to benchmark their region's QoL, make comparisons with other destinations, and ultimately, as a tool to help market their community – all using free and readily available data.Originality/valueThis case study adds value to the hospitality and tourism literature by sharing the Roanoke QoL model for the first time with the academic and practitioner community and extends its methods to propose how a tourist QoL model would work. It also addresses the research gap noted by Uysal et al. (2016) who observed a dearth of tourism research studies that utilize objective measures.

scholarly journals AN ANALYSIS OF HERDING BEHAVIOR IN THE STOCK MARKET: A CASE STUDY OF THE ASEAN-5 AND THE UNITED STATES

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-318
Author(s):  
R. Eki Rahman ◽  
Ermawati Ermawati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Herding Behavior ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Global Factor ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Us

We construct a new dataset to examine herding behavior in the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) and the US stock market. Our dataset consists of daily closing prices on the most liquid stock indices in the ASEAN-5 and the US stock market. Based on the Newey–West estimator, we show that the dominant global factor influencing herding behavior is the US federal funds rate, while the cross-market herding of the Singaporean stock market is the dominant regional factor that influence the other ASEAN stock markets. We find that herding behavior, caused by stock market index, spikes only occur in the Philippine stock market.  

Evaluating the link between commercial governance ratings and firm performance in a cross-European setting

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (10) ◽  
pp. 2089-2110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel E. Núñez Izquierdo ◽  
Josep Garcia-Blandon
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Standard And Poor's ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the ability of commercial governance ratings (CGR) to predict firm performance. Design/methodology/approach Based on the review of the corporate governance literature, the authors pose five hypotheses on the relationship between CGR and firm performance. Then, the authors test these hypotheses for the latest version of the Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (ISS) index (Quickscore) with a sample of firms formed by the constituents of the Standard and Poor’s Europe 350 stock market index. Findings The authors have not found a consistent significant relationship between Quickscore ratings and firm performance. This main result holds across a variety of checks. Research limitations/implications Some of the additional analyses are conducted with rather small samples. The results of these analyses have to be carefully taken. Recommendations for further research are offered. Practical implications The results call into question the usefulness of CGR, marketed by influential consultant companies, and which are becoming increasingly popular among investors, as reliable predictors of firm performance. Originality/value Despite an increasing body of research on the use of CGR as predictors of firm performance, the available research is heavily concentrated in the US market. No previous study has explored this relationship using the recently developed ISS index Quickscore in a cross-European setting. The use of a cross-country sample of companies allows the authors to address the impact of institutional factors on the CGR-firm performance relationship. Moreover, the authors do not limit the study to the overall scores of the index but examine also the partial scores (pillars) which intend to assess specific dimensions of governance. This makes the evaluation of the relationship more complex and challenging.

Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Cross

Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

Washington will rethink its foreign chip strategy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Controls ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Technology Competition ◽  
Business In China

Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.

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