Political forces advance China's footballing ambitions

Subject The outlook for professional football in China. Significance Ahead of the start of the new season today, China's football clubs have spent a record 400 million dollars buying players from abroad. Lavish spending on foreign stars raises concerns that the development of Chinese footballers is being held back, putting at risk official ambitions for the national team to repeat at FIFA World Cups the country’s soft-power-projection success with the 2008 Beijing Olympic games. However, China’s leaders also want the domestic game to be the core of a sports-entertainment industry that will help rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption. This requires a kick-start from star power. Impacts China could contest the United States’ eventual challenge to the commercial primacy of Europe’s ‘big five’ leagues. Hosting international football tournaments will bring unwelcome scrutiny in non-sporting areas such as human rights. A chronic shortage of coaches offers business opportunities to foreign-owned football academies. Chinese investment in European clubs to gain operational expertise will continue. Acquiring foreign football brands will add more to Chinese acquirers' domestic value than the European value of the asset.

Significance UAE military engagement abroad since the 1990s has earned it the nickname ‘Little Sparta’. Its activities included a lengthy mission alongside NATO forces in Afghanistan and special forces-led interventions in Libya and Yemen. Impacts Increased COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy could be an important component of the Emirati soft power approach. UAE purchases of expensive weapons and maintenance of Red Sea basing options will focus on the Iran threat. Defence industrial ties will strengthen with the United States and Israel.


Author(s):  
Courtney J. Fung

Chapter 4 analyzes China’s decision to shift its position on intervention in Sudan over the Darfur crisis. China went from viewing Sudan’s problems as domestic affairs not for the UN Security Council’s purview, to actively supporting intervention. China wrangled and effectively “enforced” consent from Khartoum for a UN Charter Chapter VII peacekeeping mission, and acquiesced to a referral of the Sudan case to the International Criminal Court, which led to an indictment of sitting President Omar al-Bashir. Though this case is popularly understood as being determined by material drivers—like shielding the Sino-Sudanese economic relationship, or addressing the reputational threat of the “Genocide Olympics” to the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games—the chapter demonstrates that status is the key variable to explain China’s shifting position. Under mounting pressure from both the great powers (the “P3” of the United States, the United Kingdom, France) and the African Union, in particular, China gravitated to supporting and permitting intervention with a yes vote for the UN-AU Hybrid Peace Operation (UNAMID) and an abstention vote for an International Criminal Court referral in 2005, and again in 2008.


Significance Rosatom’s nuclear energy contracts with Iran, Egypt, Turkey and Jordan signal a growth in Russian soft power in the region. Meanwhile, the United States is conspicuous by its absence in both reactor sales and nuclear cooperation. Impacts Russian hegemony in regional uranium supplies could offer political leverage. Nuclear energy programmes will give leaders further justification to strengthen state security mechanisms. The presence of nuclear material in the Middle East region will increase Western concerns over regime security and survival. Civil nuclear power could contribute to anxieties over a nuclear arms race. US disengagement from civil nuclear power in the Middle East may weaken its influence over non-proliferation.


Subject Chinese investment in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port. Significance China has long viewed Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka as a potential nodal point in its maritime silk route project. Sri Lanka is seeking investment to alleviate its foreign debt. Yet its feelers to China risk antagonising its neighbour India. Impacts A free trade agreement between Colombo and Dhaka will enable Bangladesh to use the Colombo port. India, the United States and Japan may step up their annual naval drills in the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka’s new Inland Revenue Act should help to increase tax receipts in the long term.


Subject Nigeria's foreign policy priorities Significance Nigeria’s foreign policy priorities are shaped by four key drivers: counterterrorism operations against Boko Haram; diversification of the economy away from oil; infrastructural development; and promoting local industrialisation in line with the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP). However, the absence of ill President Muhammadu Buhari risks obscuring broader diplomatic goals. Impacts The United States is likely to remain the largest foreign investor in Nigeria in the near term -- despite growing Chinese investment. Despite diversification plans, oil export revenue will be the country’s main foreign exchange earner in the short-to-medium term. Tensions over the detention of the Shia Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) leader are unlikely to lead to a break in Iran-Nigeria relations.


Significance The hearing was part of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer’s investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, initiated in August. The US delegation to the WTO submitted in September a request for China to delay implementation of its Cybersecurity Law, citing its anticipated impact on cross-border technology transfers. Both of these developments reflect increasing technology trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Impacts US allies are likely to face pressure from Washington over procurement of Chinese ICT in government facilities. The US government is likely to use power over contracts, regulation and informal pressure to shape tech companies’ behaviour. Espionage fears will drive harsher US and European scrutiny of Chinese investment in their domestic tech sectors.


Significance Having led the polls throughout the race, Cortizo’s victory is unexpectedly narrow. He is due to take office in July, when he will press ahead with an electoral programme that pledged to crack down on corruption and boost economic growth. Impacts Cortizo’s election will boost business confidence in Panama as he has pledged to maintain pro-business policies. Cortizo plans to strengthen links with the United States, which should reap investment benefits. Varela’s decision to cut ties with Taiwan will pay off during Cortizo’s presidency, helping to attract substantial Chinese investment. Cortizo’s cabinet appointments over the next two months will indicate his key policy priorities for the first months of his term.


Significance The region’s states try to avoid being drawn in, individually and under the aegis of ASEAN. If tensions between Washington and Beijing were to get out of hand, they could come under greater pressure to take sides. Impacts Washington is unlikely to press the region’s states to allow it to establish military bases in their territories. If Donald Trump is re-elected US president next month, he will continue to take a hard line on Huawei and other Chinese tech companies. China and the United States will struggle to increase their soft power in South-east Asia.


Subject Chinese projects in Balkans. Significance China’s growing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) footprint in South-Eastern Europe has put the EU and the United States on alert. Coupled with traditional Russian and Turkish influence in the region, Beijing’s economic diplomacy fuels fears of escalating geopolitical competition. Impacts Chinese investment projects will face greater EU scrutiny. Infrastructure development remains central to China’s presence but also raises concerns about high-level corruption and the rule of law. Unlike Russia, China will keep a low profile on political issues such as Kosovo.


Subject Chinese investment in the United States. Significance The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) enacted on August 13 expands the remit of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which reviews incoming foreign investment deals for possible national security implications. China is the implicit target. Since its peak of 46 billion dollars in 2016, Chinese direct investment in the United States has steadily declined, falling to 29 billion dollars in 2017 and dropping another 90% year-on-year in the first half of 2018. Impacts Uncertainty regarding new US regulations will hold some Chinese investors back from entering the market. Chinese businesses will face greater pressure from US policymakers and regulators to clarify their relationship with the Communist Party. Chinese investments in ICT, semiconductors and other advanced technologies will come under sustained scrutiny from US regulators. Chinese greenfield investments might increase as investors seek ways around tariffs and the Trump administration seeks to create jobs.


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