Russia will manage terror threat despite vulnerability

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Face

Significance The apparent suicide attack on an underground train on April 3 killed 14 people and wounded 50, but could have been far worse as a second, larger bomb failed to explode. Impacts Russians will be resilient in the face of attacks as long as these are sporadic rather than concerted. Security measures may be misused to squeeze the political opposition. All five Central Asian governments will step up checks on suspected militants returning from the Middle East.

New Tanzania leader may face resistance to reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economic Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Face ◽  
Low Cost Carrier

Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.

Islamic State will face obstacles to Afghan relocation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Large Expansion ◽  
Central Asian Republics

Subject The Islamic State group's ambitions in Afghanistan. Significance In a bid to offset its reverses in Syria and Iraq, Islamic State (IS) is strengthening its Afghan presence with members arriving from abroad to join local recruits. Despite having a presence in Afghanistan since 2015, IS has not achieved the swift and large expansion it saw in the Middle East as it is competing with the long-established Taliban. Impacts If IS grows stronger in northern Afghanistan, it might revive plans to infiltrate Central Asian republics. Differences on how to deal with IS will divide the Taliban leadership. Russia and Iran will engage with parts of the Taliban and encourage them to fight IS.

Central Asia drives Syria repatriations to reduce risk

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Women And Children ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Reduce Risk

Subject Central Asian policies on repatriating nationals associated with Middle East insurgency. Significance Central Asian governments' concerns about radicalisation among Muslim-majority populations were amplified when hundreds of nationals went to Syria and Iraq in 2014-15 to join Islamic State (IS) and other jihadist groups. They are prioritising the repatriation of women and children, in contrast to European governments' reluctance to approve blanket returns. Impacts The security drive against local extremists will be sustained across Central Asia. Policies towards returning women will not be affected by IS-attributed attacks unless a direct link is made. In Russia, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is leading on repatriation efforts focused on children.

Central African Republic heads into tense elections

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Technical Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Register ◽  
Regional Leaders

Significance However, the Constitutional Court must still approve the contested electoral register and rule on the eligibility of candidates, including former President Francois Bozize. Impacts Bozize's exclusion may prompt the main opposition platform, the Coalition for Democratic Opposition (COD-2020), to boycott the polls. Instability may compromise the deployment of international, independent experts to observe or provide technical support to elections. Dissatisfaction among the political opposition, armed groups and regional leaders over the lack of dialogue may grow after the elections.

Morena pressure on Mexico’s INE raises democracy risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Council ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
General Secretary ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Government-INE tensions. Significance The National Electoral Institute (INE) on February 6 ratified Edmundo Jacobo Molina as its general secretary for another six-year term. The decision, taken with the support of eight of the INE’s eleven-member General Council, has reignited tensions between the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the INE leadership, particularly Council President Lorenzo Cordova. Several government officials have accused Cordova and his fellow councillors of undemocratic behavior for having brought forward the vote, which was originally scheduled for April 10 -- six days after the Chamber of Deputies is due to appoint four new members to the Council. Impacts The fact that AMLO’s name will not be on the ballot in next year’s legislative elections could be a disadvantage for Morena. In its current weakened state, the political opposition is unlikely to put up an effective fight to uphold the INE’s independence. The four new INE Council members appointed in April will help organise elections in 2024 and 2027, as well as the 2021 midterms.

International Rentierism in the Middle East Africa, 1971–2008

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Craig Jenkins ◽  
Katherine Meyer ◽  
Matthew Costello ◽  
Hassan Aly
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The Political ◽  
Rentier State ◽  
Popular Resistance ◽  
The Face ◽  
International Transactions

What is the trend in rentierism in the Middle East and North Africa? Defining a rentier state as one that extracts a significant share of its revenues from rents extracted from international transactions, we examine a range of such transactions that together constitute a third or more of the Middle East/North Africa economies. Outlining a rentierism index that is based on the share of GDP stemming from oil/mineral exports, foreign military and economic aid, worker remittances, and international tourism, we show that rentierism is growing and that 18 of the 22 Middle East/North Africa states depend for over a third of their GDP on these international transactions. Some depend on direct rents stemming from oil/mineral exports and foreign aid, while others rely increasingly on indirect rents from remittances and tourism. This split between direct and indirect rents has implications for the political stability of these states, because it creates states that are more or less able to maintain control in the face of popular resistance and insurgency.

scholarly journals National and Cultural Identity in Iraq in the Face of the Formation of the New Order in the Middle East. Philosophical Reflection and the Political Reality

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-81
Author(s):  
Paulina Jagoda Warsza
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Historical Change ◽  
Social Awareness ◽  
The Political ◽  
New Order ◽  
Philosophical Reflection ◽  
Political Reality ◽  
The Face

After Arab Spring many hopes were dashed. However historical change must be happening now in the area of social awareness. The rise of ex­tremism limits awareness and also endangers the Arab identity. The Arab revolution has to be more than the overthrowing of dictators. Bennabi created the concept of Post- Almohad Man and its “Colonsability” – a ten­dency to be colonized which allows the aggressor to be transformed into the colonizer. Is Bennabi’s theory applicable to Iraq? Should killing a Post- Almohad Man be the aim, as Bennabi postulated, and only this will allow society to develop? Although Bennabi rather had in mind liberation from auto-stereotype and reconstruction of identity, many still interpret his words literally.

Tensions will simmer in Ecuador despite subsidy U-turn

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The move, designed to help meet IMF loan conditions, triggered two weeks of protests by indigenous movements, trade unions, students and others, which brought the country to a halt and threatened to topple the government. Heavy-handed police and military action exacerbated the violence, which resulted in hundreds of arrests and at least eight deaths. Moreno’s U-turn has put an end to the unrest for now but deep divisions (and IMF requirements) remain. Impacts Correa and his supporters will seize on Moreno’s inability to maintain order and his decision to back down in the face of protests. Indigenous groups will be emboldened by Moreno’s U-turn and will continue resisting key elements of the government’s economic programme. Relations with the IMF have returned to centre stage and will shape the political landscape as the 2021 presidential elections approach.

Garcia's death will not revive APRA's fortunes in Peru

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Judicial Activism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Face ◽  
Car Wash ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Garcia’s death removes from the political scene one of Peru’s most influential politicians. The twice former-president had been closely identified as a recipient of bribes from the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht, although he consistently denied allegations against him. He was one of several senior political figures, both in Peru and in Latin America more broadly, to be embroiled in the so-called ‘Car Wash’ investigation. Impacts APRA’s ability to rebuild political support in the country is doubtful. The Peruvian and Brazilian examples of judicial activism will not necessarily be paralleled elsewhere. President Martin Vizcarra will push ahead with his reform agenda in the face of congressional opposition.

Muslim states will turn a blind eye to China's abuses

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Face ◽  
International Activism ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of repression in Xinjiang on China's relations with Muslim-majority countries. Significance The silence of Muslim-majority countries in the face of human rights abuses in Xinjiang contrasts with their international activism on behalf of Palestine, Kashmir and the Rohingya minority in Myanmar. Impacts Governments in the more repressive Muslim-majority countries, especially in the Middle East, will censor discussion of the Xinjiang issue. Where public pressure forces the governments of Muslim-majority countries to act, responses are unlikely to go beyond rhetoric. Beijing would not hesitate to use limited economic sanctions to punish Muslim-majority countries that criticise its internal policies.

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