Central African Republic heads into tense elections

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Technical Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Register ◽  
Regional Leaders

Significance However, the Constitutional Court must still approve the contested electoral register and rule on the eligibility of candidates, including former President Francois Bozize. Impacts Bozize's exclusion may prompt the main opposition platform, the Coalition for Democratic Opposition (COD-2020), to boycott the polls. Instability may compromise the deployment of international, independent experts to observe or provide technical support to elections. Dissatisfaction among the political opposition, armed groups and regional leaders over the lack of dialogue may grow after the elections.

CAR’s president will welcome dialogue on his own terms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
The Political ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Routes ◽  
The Subject

Significance However, the launch of this initiative to bring “peace, security and development” to the Central African Republic (CAR) remains the subject of many disputes within the political class. Impacts Armed groups will continue fighting in the peripheries, including over control of mineral resources and trade routes. Divisions among international actors over whether armed groups should be invited to the dialogue will reduce the pressure on Touadera. Touadera will face pressure either to involve former President Francois Bozize in the dialogue or to agree to a plan for his exile.

Alliances will shape Central African Republic election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
Mass Displacement

Subject Political outlook for the Central African Republic. Significance The Constitutional Court yesterday ruled that the second-round presidential election -- scheduled for January 31 -- will go ahead. The court also annulled legislative polls held at the same time as the first round of the presidential election, citing numerous irregularities. The new leader will have greater political clout than the oft-criticised interim president, Catherine Samba-Panza, but faces difficulties healing sectarian rifts and rebuilding institutions following the two-year civil conflict. Impacts Re-running the legislative polls will prove costly, stretching already strained donor and government budgets. Exports of rough diamonds from CAR will continue to be banned by the Kimberley Process until governance standards improve. Mass displacement coupled with irregular weather patterns will disrupt the agricultural cycle, creating a large-scale food security crisis. IMF, United Nations and other agencies will help the incoming administration to draft a development programme, given weak state capacity.

African politics and security to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
African Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Funding ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Regional Leaders

Subject African politics and security to end-2017. Significance Key regional leaders are set to step down from national and party presidencies in Angola and South Africa, presidents in Nigeria and Zimbabwe are in ill health, while growing displacement crises in the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could worsen without increased international funding and support. Although famine risks have lessened in South Sudan, conflict and instability will persist in Nigeria and Somalia as renewed insurgency threats grow.

Colombia court ruling will help extractives sector

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Veto Power ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Court Ruling ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gold Mines ◽  
Local Municipalities ◽  
Alternative Means

Subject Mining referenda. Significance The Constitutional Court on October 11 ruled that popular consultations held by local municipalities or regions do not have veto power. This ruling is important as a series of popular consultations since 2016 have voted to suspend or cancel extractives projects, concerning both current and potential investors. The new ruling should provide greater stability for such projects but is likely to spark renewed frustration in the most affected regions. Impacts The ruling may encourage more companies to invest in the extractives sector, with positive implications for economic activity. Social unrest around extractives projects may increase with the removal of an electoral outlet for popular opposition. Environmental activism may increase with mining opponents using environmental concerns as an alternative means of halting projects. Non-state armed groups will present a continuing threat of violence and extortion for mining firms, particularly those with gold mines.

Morena pressure on Mexico’s INE raises democracy risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Council ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
General Secretary ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Government-INE tensions. Significance The National Electoral Institute (INE) on February 6 ratified Edmundo Jacobo Molina as its general secretary for another six-year term. The decision, taken with the support of eight of the INE’s eleven-member General Council, has reignited tensions between the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the INE leadership, particularly Council President Lorenzo Cordova. Several government officials have accused Cordova and his fellow councillors of undemocratic behavior for having brought forward the vote, which was originally scheduled for April 10 -- six days after the Chamber of Deputies is due to appoint four new members to the Council. Impacts The fact that AMLO’s name will not be on the ballot in next year’s legislative elections could be a disadvantage for Morena. In its current weakened state, the political opposition is unlikely to put up an effective fight to uphold the INE’s independence. The four new INE Council members appointed in April will help organise elections in 2024 and 2027, as well as the 2021 midterms.

Central African Republic's path to peace will be rocky

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central African Republic's peace process. Significance President Faustin Archange Touadera’s government has been bolstered by Russian military support, with UN peacekeepers and the EU helping the state to re-establish a presence in provincial areas and African mediators drawing some armed groups into dialogue. Nevertheless, the Central African Republic (CAR) remains trapped in a profound crisis that will be difficult to escape. Impacts The retirement of 829 armed forces personnel could make room for former rebel fighters to be integrated into the military. Despite progress in rebuilding the judicial system, this is unlikely quickly to deter human rights violators on all sides. Sectarian factions in Bangui may stir new inter-communal violence and clashes with UN peacekeeping troops.

Delayed Congolese election will prompt a crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Significance Crackdowns against the political opposition have increased as the government tries to stifle political dissent. The constitution mandates presidential and national assembly elections by late November, but the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, appears unwilling to leave office despite reaching his term limit. Impacts Tshisekedi's return will raise the stakes in the country's political crisis. Instability or political violence risks shattering DRC's fragile economic recovery. The UN could expand the mandate of its mission in the DRC depending on the outcome of the political process.

Political impasse could force Rajoy to step down

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
The Political ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Political Response ◽  
Popular Party ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Coalition negotiations in Spain. Significance Attempts to form a government following the repeat election on June 26 remain fraught with difficulties. Although negotiations between the Popular Party (PP) and the Citizens party are under way, the Socialist Party (PSOE) has so far refused to support Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Assistance from both Citizens and the PSOE is essential to the success of his efforts to form a minority government. Impacts Another failure by the political parties to deliver a government outcome would prompt moves for renewal to regain public credibility. Lacking an effective political response, Rajoy will continue to use the constitutional court to punish Catalan pro-independence efforts. Regional elections in the Basque Country and Galicia on September 25 will complicate negotiations between the PP and its electoral rivals.

CAR truth commission may fail to deliver

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
International Community ◽  
Truth Commission ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Outlying Regions ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Central African Republic's Truth, Justice, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission. Significance The Central African Republic (CAR) parliament in late February passed a bill establishing the Truth, Justice, Reconciliation and Reparation Commission (TJRRC). The TJRRC is the main justice initiative envisaged under the February 2019 peace agreement between the government and 14 armed groups. However, the TJRRC will face significant political hurdles to delivering on its lofty premise. Impacts It is unlikely that victims will receive reparations without significant technical and financial backing from the international community. Due to its Bangui-centric approach, the TJRRC may neglect abuses committed by the government and armed groups in outlying regions. During the election period, the TJRRC could be employed as a political threat against opposition parties.

Russia will manage terror threat despite vulnerability

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Face

Significance The apparent suicide attack on an underground train on April 3 killed 14 people and wounded 50, but could have been far worse as a second, larger bomb failed to explode. Impacts Russians will be resilient in the face of attacks as long as these are sporadic rather than concerted. Security measures may be misused to squeeze the political opposition. All five Central Asian governments will step up checks on suspected militants returning from the Middle East.

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