Warmer China-Myanmar economic ties risk future unrest

Significance Most notable are those on the China-Myanmar oil pipeline and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ). Impacts Continuation of the Myitsone dam impasse will compound Myanmar’s shortfall of electricity generation capacity. Resuming Chinese megaprojects in Myanmar risks more protests, with the NLD government caught between China and Myanmar’s people. The next test of Myanmar’s ethnic minorities peace process will be at the next Panglong peace talks in May.

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.


Significance His comments follow the NLD’s performance in by-elections held on April 1: the party that stormed to election victory in November 2015 won just nine of the 18 seats it contested in 19 constituencies. It lost to the former governing Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and to ethnic minority parties. Impacts Difficult dialogue with some ethnic minorities will hinder the peace process. China will be concerned about any further military-ethnic minority fighting on Myanmar’s border. Border-area conflicts will also hinder mining sector development. Infrastructure development activities will expand in Rakhine State.


Significance Another 20,000 were gathering near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday following Rohingya militia attacks on police and military installations. The situation in Rakhine State was already tense: the same group attacked nine police posts in October 2016, prompting a crackdown by Myanmar’s military. A further security operation is now under way, posing more social and political dangers. An estimated 400 have died so far in renewed fighting. Impacts International aid agencies in Rakhine may have to withdraw their personnel. Myanmar’s neighbours will experience further refugee inflows. Instability may threaten Myanmar’s place in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Other Myanmar ethnic minorities will see even less reason to trust the military, further impeding the Panglong peace process. The Rakhine controversy will likely cause further rifts within ASEAN.


Significance In the last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team has hinted that elections in these areas -- a Russian demand -- might be possible. In the last month, Zelensky has clarified his position by saying there can be no elections as long as Russian-backed forces are present. Today he said the free economic zone would be one of five questions in a non-binding poll held on election day. Impacts Zero progress on peace may erode Zelensky's formerly overwhelming support and undermine his party's parliamentary majority. Too many compromises could spark large protests by the opposition. As Russia has crises in Belarus and Nagorno-Karabakh to manage, it may want to avoid a higher level of conflict in Ukraine at present. Zelensky's non-binding five-question 'referendum' may be designed to resuscitate public excitement about his Servant of the People party.


Significance Once finished, the projects will make up 6% of Tunisia’s electricity generation capacity. Although new projects promise increased renewable energy development, a combination of political and economic uncertainty, combined with cumbersome investment requirements, mean foreign investor interest remains limited. Impacts The country’s climate change targets are unlikely to be met. The decline of domestic gas production will leave Tunisia exposed to high international prices. The lack of a foreign investment track record in electricity suggests only small projects are likely to proceed in coming years.


2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
CB Herman Edyanto

Special Economic Zone has been introduced as a new approach in Indonesia for regional development purposes on the basic of economic activities concentration. Some countries have run such project as part of national income and thus opening new job opportunity for the local people. A concept for its development need to be established since it also affects to the government’s expenditure. This is a chance for the government to open mind in creating new investment from other countries to Indonesia. Two cities have been chosen as cases of study namely Bitung – north Sulawesi Province and Dumai – Riau Province. The first is known as fish processing industry city whereas the second one is known as CPO processing industry city. This study has proved that Dumai has a good prospect as a special economic zone based on the application of Powersim dynamic programming model for its analysis.


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