Arrests will not help Mexico's anti-corruption efforts

Subject Corruption scandals. Significance On April 15, Interpol captured the fugitive former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte (2010-16), in Guatemala. He had fled Mexico in October, accused of having embezzled over 45 billion pesos (2.4 billion dollars). His arrest followed that of former Tamaulipas Governor Tomas Yarrington (1999-2005) in Italy on April 9. He had been at large for five years, wanted in both the United States and Mexico for corruption and organised crime. Both were members of Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Impacts Recent arrests will do little to advance the wider fight against corruption because underlying drivers remain intact. There is no evidence to suggest that others suspected of corruption will be brought to justice in the short-to-medium term. Key elements of the new SNA will be delayed by partisan struggles in Congress.

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.


Subject Sending high-level criminals to face incarceration in the United States is a perpetual source of controversy in both Colombia and Mexico. Significance The Colombian peace process has revived debate over extradition, raising questions of justice, sovereignty and national pride. Meanwhile, the escape of Sinaloa Cartel drug lord Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman from a Mexican high-security prison in July gave further weight to the arguments of those in Mexico advocating extradition to the United States. Impacts Prison systems and facilities are unlikely to improve significantly in the short-to-medium-term. Mexico will extradite more high-profile cartel members to the United States. Colombian paramilitaries are less likely to be extradited if implicated in human rights abuses. Colombian guerrillas will not be extradited.


Subject Spain's political and economic involvement in Latin America. Significance In the two decades leading up to the 2008 crisis, Spain saw its economic presence in Latin America grow rapidly as a result of investments in sectors such as banking, telecoms and public utilities. However, the crisis resulted in Spanish investment stagnating along with its political influence. With China having pledged as much as 250 billion dollars in investment by 2025, it is unlikely that Spain will maintain its position as the region’s second most important economic partner after the United States into the medium term. Impacts The unlikelihood of major divestments by Spanish companies will limit opportunities for domestic firms to acquire profitable assets. More market-friendly regional governments than in previous decades will help mitigate the risk of renationalisations. China’s abundant capital for state-to-state financing will give it significant political leverage which Spain will be unable to match. The scope of Chinese financing is likely to broaden beyond its currently limited destinations.


Significance This also comes as indirect US nuclear talks with Iran resume in Vienna, despite concerted Israeli opposition. US President Joe Biden is in effect withdrawing the unconditional backing his predecessor Donald Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Impacts The Gaza ceasefire will be fragile, with a significant chance of renewed hostilities in the short-to-medium term. The appointment of a new Mossad chief, David Barnea, may lower the profile of but will not materially change Israeli-US intelligence ties. The United States will further increase financial support to both Gaza and the West Bank. In a more serious possible future war against Hezbollah, Washington might not back a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon.


Author(s):  
Roderic Ai Camp

Mexico’s democratic transition provides a revealing case study of a semi-authoritarian political model evolving incrementally into an electoral democracy over two decades. One of the special features of that transition was its slow progress compared to its peers in Latin America, especially given its proximity to the United States, the most influential democracy in the last half of the 20th century. The first attempt to introduce fair, competitive elections occurred under the leadership of Miguel de la Madrid in 1983, but he reversed direction when he was opposed by leading politicians from his own party. His successor, Carlos Salinas (1988–1994), chose to pursue economic liberalization, opening up Mexico to greater competition globally, and negotiating an agreement with Canada and the United States (North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA), while maintaining an authoritarian presidency. During this era, proactive actors that fomented significant political change came from numerous sources. The following were particularly noteworthy in explaining Mexico’s shift to a democratic model: dissident elites who pushed for democracy inside the dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI); dissident elites who left PRI to form the most successful opposition parties in the 20th century, including the founding of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) in 1989; social and civic movements originating from government incompetence in addressing the results of the 1985 earthquake in Mexico City, the widespread fraud during the 1988 presidential election, and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation uprising in 1994; the altered composition of political leadership from the establishment and the opposition characterized by stronger backgrounds in local, elective offices, party leadership, and nonpolitical careers; new electoral laws reinforcing independent decision-making regarding electoral practices and outcomes in the 1990s; and the introduction of new political actors supportive of democratic change, such as the Catholic Church.


Subject The government's security policy. Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto's December trip to the border city of Ciudad Juarez -- once 'the most dangerous city in the world' -- was designed to highlight an area where the government's security policies seem to have garnered impressive results. Pena Nieto claimed that since the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) took power two years ago, homicides in the city had decreased by 50%. However, this improving situation is not representative of Mexico as a whole. Impacts Homicide, extortion, and kidnapping rates in Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana and Monterrey will continue to drop. Implementing the same security policy in states with warring organised crime groups remains much more problematic. In Guerrero, Michoacan and Tamaulipas, homicide, kidnapping and extortion rates will stay stable or rise.


Significance The statement is the latest in a string of similar announcements by companies fearful of obstacles to free trade being put in place between Mexico and the United States. Trump has consistently engaged in protectionist, anti-Mexican rhetoric, pressuring US firms to abandon planned investments in Mexico, demanding a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and threatening to impose a 20% border tax or selective tariffs on Mexican exports. Impacts Mexico will see diminished foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2017 due to uncertainty over the future of NAFTA. A moderate-sized hit to Mexican exports could knock around 0.5 percentage points off growth, possibly contributing to a recession. In the medium term, China could take advantage of worsening US-Mexico relations to deepen economic and political ties with Mexico.


Subject The implications of SpaceX's entry into government launches. Significance The United States Air Force (USAF) has certified SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch vehicle for military satellites. SpaceX is not granted any launches by this, but it breaks the monopoly of United Launch Alliance (ULA) on about one-third of launches. This could have significant industrial and strategic implications in the medium term. Impacts Cost savings on launches will likely stay within the space programmes, which are a priority for the US military. Technology on reusable rockets would first spread to Europe and the Ariane rocket family. This could lead to a US-Europe duopoly in the rocket industry, similar to Boeing-Airbus in the airplane industry.


2003 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chappell Lawson

Recent survey data strongly suggest that extending the franchise to Mexicans living abroad would further weaken the already ailing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Compared to their compatriots in Mexico, Mexicans in the United States are extremely ill disposed toward the PRI and particularly sympathetic to the center-right National Action Party (PAN). These differences, however, appear to be a function of education levels and media messages rather than underlying political values or self-selection through migration. Consequently, the distribution of voters across Mexico's main parties in future elections would depend in part on the dynamics of a campaign conducted partly in the United States. Algunos datos de encuestas recientes sugieren contundentemente que la ampliacióón del derecho de voto a los mexicanos que viven en el extranjero debilitaráá aun máás al doliente Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). Comparados a sus compatriotas en Mééxico, los mexicanos en los Estados Unidos estáán sumamente mal predispuestos hacia el PRI y miran con particular simpatíía al Partido de Accióón Nacional (PAN), de centro-derecha. Estas diferencias, sin embargo, parecen ser una funcióón de los niveles de educacióón y de los mensajes de los medios de comunicacióón máás que subrayar valores polííticos o una auto-seleccióón por la migracióón. Por consiguiente, la distribucióón de los votantes a travéés de los partidos principales de Mééxico en las elecciones futuras dependeráá en parte de la dináámica de una campañña conducida en parte en los Estados Unidos.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Takisha Durm

PurposeThe Girl Who Buried Her Dreams in a Can, written by Dr Tererai, profiles a cultural, yet global experience of the power of believing in one's dream. Through this study of the similarities and differences of how children in the United States and abroad live and dream of a better life, this lesson seeks to enhance students' understandings of the power and authority they possess to effect change not only within their own lives but also in the lives of countless others in world. After reading the text, students will work to create vision boards illustrating their plans to effect change within their homes, schools, communities, states or countries. They will present their plans to their peers. To culminate the lesson, the students will bury their dreams in can and collectively decide on a future date to revisit the can to determine how far they have progressed in accomplishing their goals.Design/methodology/approachThis is an elementary grades 3–6 lesson plan. There was no research design/methodology/approach included.FindingsAs this is a lesson plan and no actual research was represented, there are no findings.Originality/valueThis is an original lesson plan completed by the first author Takisha Durm.


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