Mexico security policy shows mixed results by state

Subject The government's security policy. Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto's December trip to the border city of Ciudad Juarez -- once 'the most dangerous city in the world' -- was designed to highlight an area where the government's security policies seem to have garnered impressive results. Pena Nieto claimed that since the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) took power two years ago, homicides in the city had decreased by 50%. However, this improving situation is not representative of Mexico as a whole. Impacts Homicide, extortion, and kidnapping rates in Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana and Monterrey will continue to drop. Implementing the same security policy in states with warring organised crime groups remains much more problematic. In Guerrero, Michoacan and Tamaulipas, homicide, kidnapping and extortion rates will stay stable or rise.

Subject Corruption scandals. Significance On April 15, Interpol captured the fugitive former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte (2010-16), in Guatemala. He had fled Mexico in October, accused of having embezzled over 45 billion pesos (2.4 billion dollars). His arrest followed that of former Tamaulipas Governor Tomas Yarrington (1999-2005) in Italy on April 9. He had been at large for five years, wanted in both the United States and Mexico for corruption and organised crime. Both were members of Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Impacts Recent arrests will do little to advance the wider fight against corruption because underlying drivers remain intact. There is no evidence to suggest that others suspected of corruption will be brought to justice in the short-to-medium term. Key elements of the new SNA will be delayed by partisan struggles in Congress.


Significance The closure of border crossings since March 2020 has fuelled violent competition for control of lucrative informal crossings (trochas) and frontier towns. However, the Venezuelan military is ill-prepared to deal with the expanding presence of Colombia’s irregular armed groups. Recent incursions highlight weaknesses in the Venezuelan armed forces, which have suffered casualties. Impacts The penetration of organised crime groups into Venezuela’s disintegrating state and economy will continue to intensify. Organised criminal violence coupled with the violence of military operations will fuel displacement, COVID and civilian casualties. A speedy, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s political impasse is needed to preclude fusion with Colombia’s own protracted insurgency.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 951-961
Author(s):  
Yara El Siwi

Purpose The gruesome attacks of 11 September 2001 signalled a powerful paradigm shift in international politics: governments previously accustomed to military menaces were now being increasingly threatened by independent, non-state actors. Consequently, a plethora of literature emerged, looking to better understand the nature of these actors. An aspect that has attracted substantial interest is the inter-relation between terrorism and organised crime (OC). This paper aims to answer the question as to whether, for the purpose of controlling and mitigating the threat they pose to society, there is meaning in differentiating between terrorist organisations (TOs) and organised crime groups (OCGs). Design/methodology/approach The first section of the paper will provide an account of the various kinds of threats posed by OCGs and TOs. The subsequent section will question whether it is possible, in today’s globalised era, to distinguish between these two actors, while the last sections will ask if such a differentiation is desirable. Findings OCGs and TOs display a clear divergence: the former’s motivation is financial while the latter’s political. With the end of the Cold War, however, each type of organisation has been building up the capabilities of the other, helped by the force of global networks. As such, these two actors now exist within the same body – a continuum – that renders their separation difficult. As to the question of desirability, the separation of the two phenomena has often led to the adoption of highly disproportionate militarised and securitised measures, resulting in a dangerous blending of law enforcement and security service methodology. Originality/value Many have argued for the separation of the “terrorist” from the “criminal”, on the grounds that the former is particularly heinous and deserving of more severe measures. Others have studied the evolution of these two phenomena to understand whether the lines separating them have been blurring and the extent to which this affects law-enforcement. This paper goes beyond notions of feasibility and poses the following question: has the traditional separation of these phenomena led to a desirable regime?


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 626-646
Author(s):  
Li Huang ◽  
Rong Tan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the causality between social security policies and farmland reallocation in rural China. Design/methodology/approach It quantitatively analyzes the impact of each ongoing social security policy on farmland reallocation based on a data set from the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 2011). Findings The study finds that the inclination of a village farmers’ collective to reallocate farmland due to changes in the village population increased if social security policies do not effectively cover the village because farmers rely primarily on income from farmland to cover their basic living expenses. However, if social security policies provide adequate coverage, then farmers do not rely entirely on on-farm income and the likelihood of farmland reallocation decreases. Furthermore, the effectiveness of social security policies includes not only coverage but also the sufficiency of the security policies provided. Research limitations/implications First, the authors use only cross-sectional data in this study, which may result in biased estimation and also limit temporal examination of the impact of social security systems, farmland reallocation and related policy variables. This limitation may be especially important in China because the country is undergoing a rapid socioeconomic transition. However, the research is constrained by the available data. Furthermore, there could be endogeneity problems that are difficult to address, given the current data set. These problems could involve the impacts of village-level economic, natural and social variables, the implementation of related public policies (land development and consolidation, land expropriation, etc.) and other economic variables. Practical implications These findings may provide implications for related policy reform in the near future. Originality/value These findings may facilitate a recognition and understanding of the causality between social security policies and farmland reallocation in rural China.


Significance A vote intention poll carried out by Buendia & Laredo and published on February 23 shows the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) well positioned ahead of the June 7 mid-term elections. The survey shows that support for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) plummeted by 12 percentage points since its previous poll of November 2014 and is currently only four points above the PAN's vote intention levels, which increased by three points to reach 26%. Impacts PAN voting intentions fall within its historical range, showing its inability to capitalise on the loss of support for its main rivals. However, with many voters undecided, there is some scope for the PAN's support to grow as campaigning starts in April. The election outcome will have a significant impact on the balance of power between the party's main factions. Zavala's bid to contest the PAN's leadership in November will depend largely on the party's electoral success in June.


Significance The embarrassing jailbreak tarnishes the mandate Mexico's mid-term election gave the administration of President Enrique Pena Nieto to consolidate its reform programme. Furthermore, while the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- in alliance with the Mexican Green Party (PVEM) and New Alliance Party (PANAL) -- secured a simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies, overall trends show a steady decline of the PRI, and a failure to address some serious credibility gaps. Impacts The PRI's increasing dependence on alliance-building may preclude further fragmentation of Mexico's main parties. As corruption and human rights scandals intensify, PRI-PVEM-PANAL electoral prospects may suffer. El Chapo's escape will severely damage faith in Pena Nieto's ability to tackle insecurity.


Subject Corruption and the election. Significance Former Tamaulipas Governor Eugenio Hernandez Flores (2005-10) was arrested on October 6, on suspicion of corruption. He is the latest in a string of former governors -- mostly of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- to be detained. Public indignation at corruption has increased since September 4, when Animal Politico published the findings of an investigation suggesting that in 2013 and 2014 the federal government embezzled more than 7.6 billion pesos (406 million dollars). Sensitivities about this issue have led to mounting concern regarding the potential misuse of funds donated in the aftermath of September's earthquakes. Impacts Congress’s focus on 2018 budget talks will hinder progress on implementing the National Anti-Corruption system. Public sector corruption will not be significantly reduced under the current administration. Reports of misuse of donations following the earthquakes could trigger public unrest.


Subject A profile of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Significance With presidential elections due to take place in July 2018, the leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) is the only party so far to have a confirmed candidate. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will run for a third time, having come second on both previous occasions -- in 2006 and 2012 with his former Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). With the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) losing popularity, Lopez Obrador now looks well positioned for victory. Impacts Lopez Obrador’s mayorship of Mexico City gives some indication of how he might govern. A reduction of petrol prices could quickly garner him favour. Rejection of an alliance with the PRD could lose him crucial votes in 2018.


Subject Prospects for Mexico and Central America in 2016. Significance Mexico and Central America will weather the economic slowdown that is affecting many emerging economies in 2016, with most countries doing well by broader regional standards. Security and governance are causes for concern regionwide. Both criminal and state violence will be major issues in Mexico and northern Central America, with increasing migration giving organised crime groups opportunities to diversify and potentially spread south, and heavy-handed policing exacerbating insecurity. Border security issues have the potential to strain relations between countries, while allegations of corruption will challenge governments, with numerous politicians potentially facing trial.


Subject Morena's election prospects. Significance On April 17, newspaper Reforma published the results of a poll (conducted between April 7-10) revealing the leader of the new, leftist Movement of National Regeneration (Morena) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to be the most popular candidate ahead of the 2018 presidential election. Although President Enrique Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had the greater share of preferences, all its potential candidates came third after Lopez Oberador and former First Lady Margarita Zavala (2006-12) of the conservative National Action Party (PAN). Impacts While Lopez Obrador's popularity may boost Morena, conversely the party could hold him back, hindering his presidential chances in 2018. Coalitions with the PAN will boost the PRD's election hopes, but its failure to redefine itself may see it lose support to Morena. Morena's continued refusal to enter into coalitions could cripple the Mexican left for years to come.


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