Brain drain negates remittances in Latin America

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mexican Families ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Money Transfers ◽  
Outward Migration

Subject The mixed impacts of outward migration. Significance Mexico saw a record inflow of money transfers in May and is set to register another year of fairly strong growth in family remittances in 2017. However, a report from the IMF on the economic impact of migration and remittances shows that while Mexico is benefiting on both fronts, other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are negatively affected. Impacts Increasing remittances will benefit millions of poor Mexican families at a time of sluggish growth and higher interest rates. Economic benefits of remittances will not be fully offset by the losses posed to some Caribbean countries by migrant outflows. The US labour market, and remittance- and immigration-related policy uncertainty, will be key drivers of remittances this year.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

Consumers’ redemption behavior of recommended mobile coupons in social network sites

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 2477-2500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Tang ◽  
Fen Liu ◽  
Shan Liu ◽  
Yunfeng Ma
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Social Network Sites ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Social Recommendation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coupon Redemption ◽  
Mobile Coupons ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Trust Propensity

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the key factors that affect consumer redemption intention toward mobile coupons recommended in social network sites (SNS). Design/methodology/approach A research model that integrates recommendation trust, positive utilities, and negative utilities of coupon redemption is developed. With the important role of trust in social recommendation taken into consideration, the key drivers of recommendation trust were analyzed in the model. Data were collected from 210 users with mobile coupon recommendation experience in one of the largest SNS (i.e. WeChat) in China. The authors used partial least squares technique to analyze the model. Findings Recommendation trust and positive utilities (economic benefits and perceived enjoyment) positively affect the intention of mobile coupon redemption. Perceived risk, as a negative utility, negatively influences coupon redemption intention. In addition, swift trust (structure assurance, perceived similarity, trust propensity, and expertise of the recommender), knowledge-based trust (familiarity with the retailers), and emotion-based trust (social tie strength) are key drivers that promote recommendation trust. Originality/value While prior research investigated mobile coupon redemption behavior in which coupons were issued by merchants, limited research analyzed consumer responses toward mobile coupons in social recommendation. This study examines the effects of recommendation trust, positive utilities, and negative utilities on mobile coupon redemption in the context of social recommendation and recognizes the key drivers of recommendation trust.

scholarly journals Investigating academic library responses to predatory publishing in the United States, Canada and Spanish-speaking Latin America

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jairo Buitrago Ciro ◽  
Lynne Bowker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Academic Library ◽  
Scholarly Communication ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comparative Investigation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spanish Speaking ◽  
The Us ◽  
Predatory Publishing

PurposeThis is a comparative investigation of how university libraries in the United States, Canada and Spanish-speaking Latin America are responding to predatory publishing.Design/methodology/approachThe Times Higher Education World University Rankings was used to identify the top ten universities from each of the US and Canada, as well as the top 20 Spanish-language universities in Latin America. Each university library's website was scrutinized to discover whether the libraries employed scholarly communication librarians, whether they offered scholarly communication workshops, or whether they shared information about scholarly communication on their websites. This information was further examined to determine if it discussed predatory publishing specifically.FindingsMost libraries in the US/Canada sample employ scholarly communication librarians and nearly half offer workshops on predatory publishing. No library in the Latin America sample employed a scholarly communication specialist and just one offered a workshop addressing predatory publishing. The websites of the libraries in the US and Canada addressed predatory publishing both indirectly and directly, with US libraries favoring the former approach and Canadian libraries tending towards the latter. Predatory publishing was rarely addressed directly by the libraries in the Latin America sample; however, all discussed self-archiving and/or Open Access.Research limitations/implicationsBrazilian universities were excluded owing to the researchers' language limitations. Data were collected between September 15 and 30, 2019, so it represents a snapshot of information available at that time. The study was limited to an analysis of library websites using a fixed set of keywords, and it did not investigate whether other campus units were involved or whether other methods of informing researchers about predatory publishing were being used.Originality/valueThe study reveals some best practices leading to recommendations to help academic libraries combat predatory publishing and improve scholarly publishing literacy among researchers.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

Central bank action will drive global equity markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Significance This volatility is driven by expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to a slowing economy. Despite persistent concerns about the fallout from the anticipated tightening in US monetary policy and many country-specific risks, such as the standoff between Greece and its creditors, equity market sentiment remains supported by accommodative monetary policies worldwide and expectations of the US monetary policy tightening being gradual. Impacts Market volatility could increase further, as better-than-expected economic data in the euro-area vies with weaker-than-anticipated US data. Decoupling of surging equity prices and weak economic fundamentals threatens the rally's sustainability, increasing scope for volatility. This decoupling is most pronounced in China, where weak economic data prompt buying of equities in anticipation of stimulus measures. The greatest risk in equity markets is uncertainty surrounding US interest rates and their impact on emerging markets.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

US election will roil Latin American outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Central America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weak Support ◽  
Policy Debates ◽  
The Us

Subject The US election impact in Latin America. Significance Donald Trump's victory in the US elections was received with concern in Latin America, where most governments informally supported Hillary Clinton's campaign and were expecting continuity in US foreign policy. Trump's positions on migration are particularly worrying for Mexico and Central America. His agenda in other areas is not clear: during the campaign, he made few statements about the region and maintained some contradictory positions on several issues, including relations with Cuba. Impacts Trump's victory will have an impact on domestic policy debates in many countries. Backpedalling on climate change would represent a major regional concern. Already weak support for economic orthodoxy and reduced trade barriers will decline further.

Low rates facilitate private equity's global spread

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis

Subject Private equity trends. Significance With global interest rates close to record lows, new private equity (PE) firms are opening at record rates, raising the most money since the 2008 financial crisis. However, with banks facing stricter supervision and higher capital requirements, PE firms are less able to use leverage to increase their returns. Impacts More PE funds will mean heightened competition and higher prices for new investments. The surge in PE investment may mean the top of the cycle is near. The upcoming US presidential election could affect carried interest taxation, decreasing the net returns to PE GPs. Increased PE investment in the US petroleum industry should prevent a significant dip in US oil production.

US Fed will struggle to raise rates much in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.

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