US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

How to estimate expected credit losses – ECL – for provisioning under IFRS 9

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Gubareva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Investment Grade

PurposeThis paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.FindingsThis study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.Research limitations/implicationsMany issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.Practical implicationsThe proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.Originality/valueNo previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

US manufacturing slump will hinder growth into 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Consumer Durables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Merchandise Trade

Subject Outlook for US manufacturing. Significance Decline in the US manufacturing sector has dampened the country's broader recovery from the 2007-09 recession and has significant regional implications for growth and employment. The political clout of manufacturers and their affiliated labour unions will play a significant role in the US domestic debate surrounding ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact. Impacts Faltering manufacturing production, high inventory levels and a deteriorating merchandise trade deficit will likely slow US economic growth. Consumer durables, automotive products and capital goods will benefit from low interest rates, but face competition from cheaper imports. Deteriorating profit margins will reduce industrial investment as well as overall levels of employment in manufacturing. The decline in US manufacturing will boost protectionist voices in Congress and politically bolsters TPP opponents.

Low interest rates may be the new normal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Effort ◽  
Asset Bubbles ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
New Research

Subject Modelling lower rates for longer. Significance The ‘secular stagnation' thesis argues that as population growth slows, the need of businesses to invest in plant and equipment slows and the supply of funds from households grows as they save more, putting downward pressure on interest rates. New research attempts to quantify this hypothesis and to show what it would take to go back to 'normal'. Impacts 'Forward guidance' will be of little use if there is a recession as there would be no reason to expect an increase in policy rates. Asset bubbles would likely be a feature of any sustained non-fiscal effort to engineer a deeply negative real interest rate. The US trade deficit, usually a welcome source of lower rates, will in this context exacerbate the zero-lower-bound issue in a recession.

Normalisation threatens Emerging Europe’s bond markets

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
Investment Grade

Subject The risks to Emerging Europe’s bond markets from the removal of monetary stimulus. Significance The IMF has warned that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to reduce capital inflows into emerging market (EM) economies. Emerging Europe is particularly vulnerable, thanks to the additional risks posed by the reduction of asset purchases by the ECB. Corporate bonds are most at risk because of the rapid compression in spreads on sub-investment grade debt, at their lowest levels since the financial crisis. Impacts Hawkish signals from central banks and US tax cuts are taking the benchmark ten-year US Treasury yield to its highest level since mid-March. However, dollar weakness will ease some of the strain on EM currencies and local bonds. With low core euro-area inflation reducing pressure to end QE, the ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates before 2019.

High Yield Bonds

2019 ◽  
pp. 599-620
Author(s):  
Byron C. Barnes ◽  
Tony Calenda ◽  
Elvis Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Credit Event

High yield bonds (HYBs) have become an integral part of the funding and investment landscape. HYBs are bonds rated below investment grade, indicating a potentially greater default risk and concomitant return. Although often associated with leveraged buyouts (LBOs), corporations also use HYBs to finance general corporate needs. The key drivers of HYB issuance include general economic activity, the number and size of transactions requiring financing, interest rates, and the availability of substitute financial products such as leveraged loans. Leveraged loans are another source of financing for issuers with a similar profile as HYB issuers. A key difference between HYBs and leveraged loans is that the covenants associated with a leveraged loan are typically more lender friendly. Similar to investment grade bonds, investors can purchase insurance to hedge a long HYB position against a credit event by using a credit default swap.

Remaking Retirement

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Older Persons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Older Population ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cost Of Education ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Key Aspects

Around the world, people nearing and entering retirement are holding ever-greater levels of debt than in the past. This is not a benign situation, as many pre-retirees and retirees are stressed about their indebtedness. Moreover, this growth in debt among the older population may render retirees vulnerable to financial shocks, medical care bills, and changes in interest rates. Contributors to this volume explore key aspects of the rise in debt across older cohorts, drill down into the types of debt and reasons for debt incurred by the older population, and review policies to remedy some of the financial problems facing older persons, in the United States and elsewhere. The authors explore which groups are most affected by debt, and they also identify the factors causing this important increase in leverage at older ages. It is clear that the economic and market environments are influential when it comes to saving and debt. Access to easy borrowing, low interest rates, and the rising cost of education have had important impacts on how much people borrow, and how much debt they carry at older ages. In this environment, the capacity to manage debt is ever more important as older workers lack the opportunity to recover for mistakes.

SEC permits abbreviated tender and exchange offers for non-convertible high-yield and investment-grade debt securities

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 28-29
Author(s):  
Ian B. Blumenstein ◽  
J. Eric Maki ◽  
John T. Owen
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Efficient Mechanism ◽  
Practical Guidance ◽  
Traditional Structures ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – To advise companies of a recent SEC no-action letter relating to tender and exchange offers for certain debt securities. Design/methodology/approach – Reviews various conditions allowing an issuer to use a shortened timeframe in which certain debt tender/exchange offers need be kept open for as few as five business days. Findings – The abbreviated debt tender/exchange offer structure contemplated by the no-action letter provides a more efficient mechanism for conducting debt tender/exchange offers in certain circumstances. Practical implications – Issuers conducting a debt tender/exchange offer should consider whether the new abbreviated structure is more effective in achieving their objectives than the more traditional structures. Originality/value – Practical guidance from experienced securities regulatory lawyers that gives an overview of important developments in debt tender/exchange offer practice.

Australia budget keeps defence spending commitments

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Defence Expenditure ◽  
Conducive Environment ◽  
Made In

Significance With an election due soon, the governing Liberal-National Coalition’s pledge to ring-fence the defence spending commitments made in 2016 was under some pressure. However, defence spending in fiscal year 2021/22 will grow by over 4% in real terms and stay above the symbolic level of 2% of GDP. Impacts Growing popular and bipartisan concern with Chinese aggression is a conducive environment for increased defence spending. Low interest rates and a stronger Australian dollar are also supporting sustained levels of defence expenditure. Washington may increase pressure on Australia to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. Major business groups are concerned that increased criticism of China in national politics will produce yet more punitive backlash.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

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