India's ruling party will lose support in north-east

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Other ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Ethnic Communities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Politics in India's north-east. Significance In the forthcoming general election, 25 seats in the parliamentary lower house will be contested in the north-east. Four of the region's eight states have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while the other four have ones representing parties aligned with the BJP. However, BJP policies aimed at appeasing certain ethnic communities have provoked protests across the area. Impacts Muslim Rohingya refugees in India will increasingly attempt to cross into Bangladesh, further damaging relations between Delhi and Dhaka. Delhi will encourage Tokyo to increase investment in India's north-east, hoping to push back on Beijing's ambitions in the region. Modi, if re-elected, will step up his 'Act East' policy, seeking enhanced connectivity between the north-east and South-east Asia.

Modi's citizenship policies will cost him support

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Mob Violence ◽  
National Register ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Illegal Migrants ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Controversial citizenship policies in India. Significance Home Minister Amit Shah last week said the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will aim to implement a National Register of Citizens (NRC) across India. Authorities in August released an updated NRC for Assam in the north-east that excludes nearly 2 million of the state's residents, most of whom are probably Muslims with origins in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party wants to reintroduce into parliament a Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB), designed to facilitate the claiming of Indian citizenship by non-Muslim illegal migrants from neighbouring South Asian countries. Impacts Despite Modi's assurances that the NRC will not involve deportations to Bangladesh, the matter will put strain on Delhi-Dhaka ties. The CAB will prompt popular protests across the north-east. India's Muslims will likely feel increasingly vulnerable and, in parts of the country, could be susceptible to mob violence.

India-Bangladesh ties will overcome turbulence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East India ◽  
North East ◽  
The North

Subject Turbulence in India-Bangladesh relations. Significance Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this week cancelled a scheduled visit to Bangladesh, due to concerns over the spread of COVID-19. India-Bangladesh relations have grown stronger since Modi came to power in 2014. In recent weeks, though, Dhaka has expressed concerns over India’s Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), which fast-tracks claims to Indian citizenship by non-Muslim migrants from three majority-Muslim South Asian countries including Bangladesh. Impacts By investing in infrastructure development in the north-east, India will strengthen connectivity with South-east Asia as well as Bangladesh. India will step up cooperation with the United States and EU to execute development projects in Bangladesh. Delhi-Dhaka relations will be a key issue in Bangladesh’s next general election, likely to take place in 2023.

Indian opposition parties will find it tough to unite

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The dialogue centred on how to work more cooperatively to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government ahead of the next general election, due in 2024. The National Democratic Alliance, led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had landslide wins in the 2014 and 2019 polls. Impacts The BJP will try to destabilise rival parties by encouraging their lawmakers to quit them. West Bengal state’s ruling All India Trinamool Congress, a major BJP opponent, will become more influential in the north-east. Muslims may feel increasingly vulnerable to verbal and physical attacks.

Bangladesh’s drug war helps ruling party in short term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Illegal Trade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
High Commissioner ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Bangladesh's narcotics crackdown. Significance Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is overseeing a ‘drug war’, with security personnel targeting illegal trade in yaba (methamphetamines). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has criticised the campaign, in which an estimated 150 people have been killed and at least 13,000 arrested since mid-May. The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to retain power in the general election, due by late December. Impacts The yaba trade will worsen social conditions in Rohingya refugee camps. India’s north-east could face an increasing problem of yaba trafficking. Bangladesh’s election campaign is likely to involve widespread use of undeclared money.

Caste unrest will help Modi's party retain Dalit vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Caste Politics

Subject Caste politics in India. Significance In a sign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to shape the political agenda, the National Democratic Alliance's candidate Ram Nath Kovind was sworn in as India's 14th president on July 25. With attacks on Dalits (low castes) in the north Indian heartlands of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surging, the nomination of a Dalit for the presidency was designed to strengthen the party's appeal to the community ahead of state elections. Impacts Support for the main opposition Congress party among Dalits will decline in Gujarat. Beef and leather exports will fall despite the Supreme Court suspending the ban on trading cattle for slaughter. Anti-Muslim violence may increase across the country.

Spread of Modi’s BJP may play on civil violence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Expansion of India's ruling party across the country. Significance Victories for candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent elections for the president and the vice-president of India signal the consolidation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authority. Modi and party President Amit Shah aim not only to win the general election in 2019 but also to control as many states as possible and make the BJP the ‘party of the nation’. Impacts India’s Election Commission may have to investigate increasing claims of electoral impropriety. If Modi is re-elected, the BJP may attain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) in his second term. Shah's popularity will rise, though he is unlikely to want to succeed Modi in the long term.

Modi’s party will not yet seek uniform civil code

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Women ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Marriage Contract ◽  
Personal Law ◽  
Cow Protection

Subject Indian government's efforts to criminalise triple talaq. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking to outlaw Muslim men’s right to terminate a marriage contract by thrice pronouncing “talaq” (divorce). The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in December mobilised its majority in parliament’s lower house to pass the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, though the legislation was blocked in the upper house last month. The bill, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi championed personally, is regarded by some as overdue protection for Muslim wives and by others as an attack on Muslim personal law. Impacts The BJP’s Hindu nationalism will help it to win upcoming polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and hold power in those states. Elections in states with sizeable Muslim populations are likely to see outbreaks of communal violence ahead of polls. Further attacks on Muslims by cow protection vigilantes are likely.

Indian state polls modestly boost Modi's reform plan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Indian State ◽  
A Minor

Significance They represent a minor triumph for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), after several difficult months, and promise to restore political momentum to his government. Yet progress is still likely to be slow. Impacts Uttar Pradesh polls will test whether the BJP's electoral campaign can avoid communal polarisation and conflict. Infrastructure investment in Assam is likely to rise, advancing Indian ambitions to improve connectivity with South-east Asia. Ties with Bangladesh will suffer as the new Assam government delivers on promises made to anti-Muslim ethic groups.

Singapore-US economic ties could suffer

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Initial Move ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Singapore-US relations. Significance On April 30, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke with US President Donald Trump. For Trump, the call was an initial move to strengthen ties with Washington’s partners in South-east Asia amid the North Korean crisis. Lee accepted an invitation to Washington. For Singapore, the call was about gauging a new, thus far mercurial US administration which, to Singapore’s concern, has expressed protectionist trade sentiments and relatively limited detail about its foreign policy aims in East and South-east Asia. Impacts The current lack of a US ambassador to Singapore is not unprecedented and will not greatly affect bilateral relations. China-Singapore ties are warmer, but any overly assertive Chinese efforts to gain South-east Asian influence could change this. Singapore will push for a reworked version of the TPP to be devised, with Japanese leadership.

Nepal’s Oli may soon pass on power to partner

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Strong Influence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Tensions between the co-chairs of Nepal's ruling party. Significance In recent weeks, tensions have grown between the Nepal Communist Party (NCP)’s co-chairs, Prime Minister KP Oli and PK Dahal (‘Prachanda’). Ahead of the NCP’s formation early last year through a merger of the two leaders’ erstwhile parties, Oli and Prachanda reportedly agreed to lead the government for equal periods. As Oli comes under pressure to ensure he complies, former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who wields strong influence within Oli’s faction in the NCP, has spoken out against the incumbent. Impacts Oli and Prachanda will in the short term probably put on a show of solidarity, aiming to dispel any notion of governing instability. The main opposition Nepali Congress may try to form closer links with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, hoping for its tacit support. If Prachanda takes power, he may face calls to take a harder line on former comrades within the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

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