Trump talk will exacerbate North Korean insecurity

Significance Although North Korea’s nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are still rudimentary by international standards, Pyongyang’s threats of striking targets in the continental United States have more credible technological underpinnings than before. The development of North Korean ICBMs threatens to ‘decouple’ Washington from Seoul and Tokyo, whereby US security commitments to allies become less credible because Pyongyang could attack the US homeland. Impacts Budget battles in Washington preclude extensive investment in mainland US ballistic missile defence systems. However, further integration of Japan and South Korea into the US regional missile defence network is likely. State Department vacancies for ambassadorships and Washington-based Asia policy officials will hinder US reassurance efforts. US interception of North Korean smuggling vessels or overflying missiles risk military-to-military armed clashes.

Subject Hypersonic missiles and their implications. Significance Russia and China claim to have hypersonic weapons with near-global reach, capable of delivering nuclear warheads with certainty and overcoming US anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The implication is that both countries are ahead of the United States in the technology race. Impacts Hypersonic technology poses a new challenge just as the future of the New START arms treaty is due for renewal in 2021. While the Kremlin highlights future hypersonic weapons, broader procurement of new defence systems is lagging. US and Chinese designers are investigating potentially cheaper methods of accelerating artillery shells to hypersonic velocities.


Significance Presumptive presidential election winner Joe Biden is reputed not to have trusted Suga’s predecessor, while Democratic governments in general are seen in Tokyo as giving Japan a low priority. Impacts A US return to multilateralism will begin to rebuild Japan’s diminished respect for the United States. East Asia specialists may return to the US State Department, making for better informed and probably more consistent policy towards Japan. Talks on repairing Japan-South Korea relations are reportedly underway behind the scenes; a creative solution may be found. Together with European partners, Japan and the United States would make a powerful alliance at the COP26 climate talks in November 2021.


Subject US relations with North and South Korea under the incoming Trump administration. Significance The period of transition to Donald Trump's presidency in the United States has displayed neglect and misunderstanding of Korean peninsula affairs, adding to risks for the region as it approaches a period of significant strategic challenge. Impacts Until Trump's team enunciates policy on the Koreas, responses to events will be unprepared and reactive. Trump's policy will influence presidential elections in South Korea, where left-of-centre candidates question the value of the US alliance. The Trump administration’s policy and communication via Twitter heightens risk of misunderstanding within the region.


Author(s):  
J. Yu. Parshkova

The article reflects the US officials' point of view on the development of its national missile defense. The major threat to international security is the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. The United States and the former Soviet Union made huge efforts to reduce and limit offensive arms. However, presently the proliferation of ballistic missiles spreads all over the world, especially in the Middle East, because of the ballistic missile technology falling into the hands of hostile non-state groups. Missile defenses can provide a permanent presence in a region and discourage adversaries from believing they can use ballistic missiles to coerce or intimidate the U.S. or its allies. With the possible attack regional missile defense systems will be promptly mobilized to enhance an effective deterrent. The ultimate goal of such large-scale missile defense deployment is to convince the adversaries that the use of ballistic missiles is useless in military terms and that any attack on the United States and its allies is doomed to failure. The United States has missile defense cooperative programs with a number of allies, including United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Israel, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Poland, Italy and many others. The Missile Defense Agency also actively participates in NATO activities to maximize opportunities to develop an integrated NATO ballistic missile defense capability. The initiative of the development of US BMD naturally belongs to the United States. That country has enormous technological, financial, economic, military and institutional capabilities, exceeding by far those of the other NATO members combined.


Subject Potential US adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons policy. Significance The administration of US President Barack Obama is reportedly considering the adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons posture in his final months in office. A no first use policy would involve the United States declaring that it would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack, never as a preliminary move in escalating tensions. This shift would be a significant departure from Washington's earlier posture, which maintained ambiguity as to whether nuclear weapons would be used in a hypothetical conventional attack on the United States or its allies. Impacts Arsenal upgrades and shifts in doctrine favouring tactical nuclear weapons would counteract the benefits of a restrained declaratory policy. Technological breakthroughs with hypersonic missiles are likely to undermine existing legal and diplomatic arms control arrangements. Obama may take up the pursuit of nuclear arms reductions with an ex-president's public profile. Eastern NATO allies will react strongly against any hint that their security does not fall under the US nuclear umbrella.


Significance With Bulgaria signing on October 23, 27 out of 30 NATO members have joined the pact, and only Bosnia-Hercegovina and Montenegro in the Balkans have not. According to the US State Department, the programme aims to safeguard data privacy, security and human rights from such “authoritarian malign actors” as the Chinese Communist Party. Impacts The time may have come for Balkans countries to evaluate their own needs, capabilities and interests, against what the big powers want. Signatory countries will start implementing Clean Network core principles, ultimately distancing themselves from China and Huawei. Chinese influence in the region takes various forms and will remain strong even if it loses the fight for the Balkan 5G market.


Subject China's nuclear weapons capabilities. Significance China has strengthened its nuclear weapons capabilities over the past year, but the issue has not featured prominently in international relations and the US administration has not made nuclear weapons a priority in dealings with Beijing. Unlike other nuclear weapons states, China maintains a strict 'no first use' policy, but its nuclear policies are considerably more opaque than what is seen in US or even Russian government documents. Impacts New submarine-launched ballistic missiles will provide more reliable second-strike capacity than the more vulnerable land-based missiles. China's space and cyber capabilities could amplify the effects of a nuclear strike by paralysing the adversary's response capabilities. Chinese nuclear advances will increase the danger involved in US military intervention in conflicts between China and Taiwan or Japan. China's nuclear build-up may affect its security negatively overall, prompting neighbours to develop missile defence and other capabilities.


Significance North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited China during January 7-10. He spent his 35th birthday in Beijing and met Chinese President Xi Jinping for the fourth time in ten months. Meanwhile, Pompeo implied on January 11 that sanctions on North Korea could be eased, with a focus on removing its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threat to the United States rather than full denuclearisation. Impacts Xi might make an overdue return visit to Pyongyang in April, perhaps before Kim’s promised first visit to Seoul. Other Asian leaders may visit Pyongyang too, conferring legitimacy on Kim. South Korea may once again challenge China for influence in North Korea.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Young Hoon Kim ◽  
Daniel Spears

PurposeThe primary purpose of this study is to examine hospitality and tourism undergraduate students' attitudes to work and career expectations as they prepare to enter the workforce in the hospitality industry in both the United States and South Korea.Design/methodology/approachThe measurement instrument was developed from previous studies (Chen and Shen, 2012; Kong, 2013) and included questions related to job attitudes, job satisfaction, job motivations, job involvement, and career expectations and aspirations upon graduation. T-tests were conducted first for the mean values of the constructs between the United States and South Korea to ensure the comparison of two different cultural groups.FindingsFirst, students from the United States (US) have more and better work attitude than those students from South Korea. Second, students from South Korea appear to be less motivated to work and less satisfied with their current jobs and earnings than students from the US. Third, the results also have managerial implications for both countries. It is very important to know that higher grade point average is not an answer to find the right person but more likely, positive attitudes to work and higher levels of job involvement are more likely to have higher job expectations and aspirations for employment in the industry.Originality/valueThis study adds to the hospitality literature by examining the different perspectives of hospitality and tourism undergraduate students from the US and South Korea, specifically examining their attitudes toward work, job satisfaction, work involvement and job expectations as they prepare for careers in the industry. The results of this study help stakeholders (i.e. students, educators and practitioners) in the hospitality and tourism industry gain a better understanding of their undergraduate students as they prepare for careers in the industry. In addition, the study contributed to understanding cultural differences present among hospitality and tourism students from individualist and collectivist cultures.


Subject South Korea's international relationships. Significance South Korea’s government is celebrating the success of its response to COVID-19, but the country’s four key foreign relationships all face difficulties -- those with the United States, China, Japan and North Korea. No other countries or regions are vital to Seoul, despite vaunted ‘Southern’ and ‘Northern’ initiatives. Impacts A prolonged deadlock on funding the US military presence in South Korea could push Seoul closer to Beijing. If President Xi Jinping visits South Korea later this year, Washington could easily misread this. Substantial fence-mending with Japan may have to await new leaderships in both countries. South Korean President Moon Jae-in may have tacitly given up on North Korea, which has visibly given up on him.


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