Trump talk will exacerbate North Korean insecurity
Significance Although North Korea’s nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are still rudimentary by international standards, Pyongyang’s threats of striking targets in the continental United States have more credible technological underpinnings than before. The development of North Korean ICBMs threatens to ‘decouple’ Washington from Seoul and Tokyo, whereby US security commitments to allies become less credible because Pyongyang could attack the US homeland. Impacts Budget battles in Washington preclude extensive investment in mainland US ballistic missile defence systems. However, further integration of Japan and South Korea into the US regional missile defence network is likely. State Department vacancies for ambassadorships and Washington-based Asia policy officials will hinder US reassurance efforts. US interception of North Korean smuggling vessels or overflying missiles risk military-to-military armed clashes.