Trump will tilt further towards US religious right

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Private Life ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Term

Subject The US political influence of the religious right. Significance By determining which party holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, November's midterm elections will influence the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. Given the historically relatively low voter turnouts in off-presidential-election-cycle election years, Trump’s fortunes depend heavily on his ability to mobilise core conservative voters on behalf of the Republican Party. The religious right is currently Trump’s most intensely loyal constituency and his best hope for retaining Republican majorities in Congress. Impacts Trump will nominate more social conservatives to federal judgeships. Recent gains in special elections do not prove a Democratic resurgence but imply turnout will be higher in November than normal. A Democratic gain of one or both houses of Congress would dent the religious right’s national influence. If the Republicans retain Congress, the religious right will increase its influence further at the federal level. So far, allegations against Trump over his private life do not appear likely to diminish his core support.

Donald Trump, Nationalization, and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Midterm Results ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Representation Of Women ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us

Abstract The 2018 midterm elections resulted in record levels of turnout, campaign funding, and the representation of women and minorities in Congress. Moreover, Democrats regained control of the US House of Representatives while Republicans shored up their minimal majority in the Senate. What made such a historic outcome possible? This article examines the candidates, expectations, outcomes, and implications of the 2018 midterm elections. In doing so, it offers an analysis into the primary elections, suggesting that the 2018 midterm results in the House were largely a result of successful nominations of quality Democratic candidates who were able to capitalize on the unpopularity of President Donald Trump despite an otherwise strong national economy. It closes with an in-depth analysis into the implications of the 2018 midterm election on both the incoming 116th Congress as well as the upcoming 2020 Presidential election.

US Republicans will eye 2020 ‘red wave’

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance She was originally appointed in April when Thad Cochran resigned and will serve to January 2021. The win means the Republicans will have 53 Senate seats for 2019-21, a net gain of two after the November 6 midterm elections. However, the Democrats will be the House of Representatives majority party. Impacts Democrat-led states will pass laws to protect voters’ voting rights. Republican-led states will push voter identification-related laws. Preparing for 2020, Congress Republicans could distance themselves from Trump, running different political messaging.

US Democrats cannot assume their resurgence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Jones’s election victory in December was an upset, albeit not a surprising one, for the Republican Party, which had fielded a controversial candidate. The victory has also whetted Democratic expectations of electoral resurgence in November’s midterm elections. Impacts Even without a Democratic victory in Congress, Republicans will be divided and thus hesitant over policy. After November, Democrats will begin seeking their presidential contender for 2020. The Democrats will try to water down Trump immigration initiatives ahead of November’s midterms.

US tax reform advantages the Republicans, for now

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Drilling ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tax Returns

Significance The sweeping tax reform is US President Donald Trump’s first major legislative victory. Although the bill met strong opposition, and criticism from many leading economists, Trump secured support from his fellow Republican party legislators in Congress. The bill, the first major federal tax reform since 1986, passed on a partisan vote with no Democratic legislators’ support. Impacts Stock prices will rise on the tax legislation’s passage; overseas money could flow back into the United States. The new legislation accomplishes for many Trump’s goal of simplifying the annual tax returns filing process. The tax reform will increase the US budget deficit and the national debt, damaging financial stability over the medium to longer term. If the Democrats win the House or Senate in 2018, they will likely try pushing back on the tax reform. The tax reform will allow new oil drilling in Alaska and undermines parts of the ‘Obamacare’ health scheme.

Post-US-midterm dynamic could ease China trade spat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Immediate Release ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Telephone Conversation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Trade War ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows high-level China-US trade talks restarting after a November 1 Trump-Xi telephone conversation, November 6’s US midterm elections that delivered a Democrat-majority House of Representatives from January 2019 and US-China trade-related frictions at the APEC Summit (November 15-17) preventing a joint communique’s immediate release. These frictions have sparked fears of a US-China ‘trade war’, or worse, and what scenarios and drivers might see this avoided. Impacts China may eye further trade renegotiations with the next US president, from 2021 or 2025. Democrats would want any trade deal to include human rights and environmental protections; Beijing would certainly resist the former. China might offer intellectual property concessions on paper, since there are multiple ways to circumvent such restrictions. Trump could sell a ‘partial’ deal politically, but he may calculate that ‘China-the-adversary’ rhetoric will win more 2020 votes.

Prospects for US politics to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Lame Duck

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2018 Significance The midterm elections on November 6 will see the full 435-seat House of Representatives elected and one-third of the 100-seat Senate. Elections will also be held for most state legislatures and 36 of 50 governors. The onset of the midterms will influence what legislation is passed beforehand, what the outgoing Congress pursues in its 'lame duck' period after November and the political arithmetic post-January 2019, when the new 116th Congress convenes.

US COVID-19 census delays will mean party battles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Allocation Of Resources ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
College Towns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Systemic Factors ◽  
Us Census

Significance The US census is conducted every ten years. The survey contributes to public allocation of resources and determines how many US House of Representatives seats each state has. Although online, telephone and mail-in responses are ongoing, the census still requires face-to-face interviews and events. Impacts The 2020 census will still be susceptible to systemic factors that produce undercounting, impairing public policy effectiveness. Areas with minorities, poverty, poor internet access and college towns are at greater risk of undercounting. Republican presidential candidates could benefit from likely 2020-21 seat reapportionments from 2024.

US Democrats slowly nearing consensus on trade

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Candidates ranged in their responses, from non-committal on their use of tariffs to criticism of President Donald Trump’s tariff use. The Democratic Party is in the midst of a debate about the direction of trade policy, including whether to pass the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and how to conduct and prioritise trade policy should their nominee win the presidency in November 2020. Impacts The House of Representatives may vote on the USMCA in coming months. If the House does not vote on the USMCA before December 2019, the next window would likely be November-December 2020. The Trump administration will try to show progress in trade talks with China before November 2020, hoping to gain votes.

'New South' states can negate Trump gains for Clinton

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
New South ◽  
Us South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Voting ◽  
Southern Us ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Us ◽  
Voter Id

Subject Democratic electoral prospects in the US South. Significance With under 60 days to the November 8 US general election, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has been polling competitively with Republican Donald Trump in several southern US states. The key swing states of Florida and Virginia are both trending Democratic, and Georgia, North Carolina and perhaps even Texas are becoming contested, raising a question of whether the Republican Party can continue to rely on the South as a core area of electoral support as it has since the 1980s. Impacts The older and whiter electorates of off-year elections will benefit Republicans in congressional and subnational contests. Protectionist Democrats could widen the party's Southern appeal, but hinder national party unity on trade legislation. Voter ID legislation and restricted early voting and same-day registration could reduce turnout by Democratic-leaning voters.

Polling will proliferate despite UK 'Brexit' failure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Communication Methods ◽  
The Eu

Subject 'Brexit' polling. Significance On June 23, the pound swung wildly: final polls on whether the United Kingdom should leave the EU ('Brexit') had shown a 4-percentage-point lead for 'Remain', only for the final result to be the opposite. Pollsters have been criticised for their failure to predict both this result and the 2015 UK general election outcome, even as qualitative analysts have also been criticised for missing the results. Impacts The US presidential election is immune from most polling failures, given its hyper-coverage and the discrete decisions of swing states. US Senate and House of Representatives elections are much more difficult to poll, leading to likely market volatility in early November. Changes in communication methods are sparking debates about how a representative sample of the population can be reached best.

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