US Democrats cannot assume their resurgence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Jones’s election victory in December was an upset, albeit not a surprising one, for the Republican Party, which had fielded a controversial candidate. The victory has also whetted Democratic expectations of electoral resurgence in November’s midterm elections. Impacts Even without a Democratic victory in Congress, Republicans will be divided and thus hesitant over policy. After November, Democrats will begin seeking their presidential contender for 2020. The Democrats will try to water down Trump immigration initiatives ahead of November’s midterms.

Trump will tilt further towards US religious right

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Private Life ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Term

Subject The US political influence of the religious right. Significance By determining which party holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, November's midterm elections will influence the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. Given the historically relatively low voter turnouts in off-presidential-election-cycle election years, Trump’s fortunes depend heavily on his ability to mobilise core conservative voters on behalf of the Republican Party. The religious right is currently Trump’s most intensely loyal constituency and his best hope for retaining Republican majorities in Congress. Impacts Trump will nominate more social conservatives to federal judgeships. Recent gains in special elections do not prove a Democratic resurgence but imply turnout will be higher in November than normal. A Democratic gain of one or both houses of Congress would dent the religious right’s national influence. If the Republicans retain Congress, the religious right will increase its influence further at the federal level. So far, allegations against Trump over his private life do not appear likely to diminish his core support.

Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has difficult role

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance McCarthy has a difficult role within a Republican Party that remains beholden to former President Donald Trump but has elements that wish to maintain a degree of autonomy from him. The coming months, as the Democrats’ agenda moves through the House, will also test his legislative skills. Impacts Republicans only need a net gain of five seats in the 2022 midterm elections to take control of the House. The redistricting process now beginning in all 50 states should result in more winnable seats for Republicans in 2022. McCarthy’s alignment with Trump appears sufficient to prevent any Republican challenge to his becoming Speaker. As Speaker, McCarthy would conduct constant conflict with the Biden White House on most issues, with China the main exception.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Gbagbo will return to frontline Ivory Coast politics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Instead he aims to create a new party. The FPI has since denied reports of mass defections by the party grassroots to Gbagbo. This comes in the context of broader public reconciliation efforts by President Alassane Ouattara, who seeks political stability in the aftermath of a highly controversial October 2020 third-term election victory. Impacts Ouattara is unlikely to grant general amnesty to all political actors in order to keep some of them outside the country. Gbagbo will likely win over most, though not all, of his former supporters within the FPI. Struggles within Gbagbo’s former party and other opposition formations will weaken the opposition in the short term. Gbagbo will consolidate his position as the main opposition leader, threatening the country’s stability in the lead-up to the 2025 election.

Governor is confident in California recall contest

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rural Counties ◽  
Wildfire Season

Significance Newson has managed to have the election brought forward from November to September 14, but it risks becoming a major distraction for both himself and the state over the next two months amid an early wildfire season and rising COVID-19 numbers. Impacts The fall in support for the state Republican party will accelerate if Newson can show unified backing from Democrats. Defeat would further alienate recall supporters in northern rural counties who already feel ignored by Sacramento. Running the recall will cost California several hundred million dollars, but the expense in smaller states would be lower.

Out of Step and Out of Touch: The Matter with Kansas in the 2014 Midterm Election

The Forum ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth C. McKee ◽  
Ian Ostrander ◽  
M. V. Hood
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Political Dominance ◽  
Midterm Elections

Abstract In recent years the politics of Kansas, with its strong historic ties to the Republican Party, have taken a hard right turn. This political environment mirrors many other states in which one political party effectively dominates the policymaking process. But while political dominance may aid incumbency it can also contribute to the kinds of political excess that tend to promote electoral backlashes. In this paper, we use a survey of likely Kansas voters during the 2014 midterm elections to examine opinions and voting preferences related to two state-wide races in which incumbent overreach played a prominent role. In particular, we examine the reelection campaigns of Governor Brownback, as his remarkably austere and highly unpopular budget left him ideologically out of step with most voters, and Senator Roberts, as his lack of residence in the state after years of serving in the Senate left him out of touch with a disgruntled electorate. Although both Republicans survived reelection, their actions ensured an unusually competitive midterm in an otherwise deep red state.

Prospects for Turkey in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Legitimacy Crisis ◽  
Legislative Election

Subject Prospects for Turkey in the second quarter. Significance President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have survived the political crises of the past year with little damage and, short of a substantial economic or legitimacy crisis, will likely score another legislative election victory on June 7. Businesses, the financial sector and households are all likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, and financial markets to be jittery.

New Kenya party may be formidable electoral force

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
National Alliance ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject New political party in Kenya. Significance The two main factions of the ruling Jubilee Alliance have agreed to form a new political party, to be called the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP). President Uhuru Kenyatta's The National Alliance (TNA) and Deputy President William Ruto's United Republican Party (URP) have a collective advantage with regards to election funding and political savvy. The main ethnic groups that support the parties -- the Kikuyu (TNA) and the Kalenjin (URP) -- are two of the most numerous and wealthy communities in the country. If the JAP holds together it will be difficult for the opposition to defeat it in the 2017 general elections. Impacts JAP's formation is part of a wider attempt by Kenyatta and Ruto to boost political stability. A ruling party solidifying the Kikuyu and Kalenjin alliance will strengthen their claims for assuring peace and stability. The government's consolidated power should allow for the policy continuity required to push through major infrastructure projects.

US Republicans will eye 2020 ‘red wave’

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance She was originally appointed in April when Thad Cochran resigned and will serve to January 2021. The win means the Republicans will have 53 Senate seats for 2019-21, a net gain of two after the November 6 midterm elections. However, the Democrats will be the House of Representatives majority party. Impacts Democrat-led states will pass laws to protect voters’ voting rights. Republican-led states will push voter identification-related laws. Preparing for 2020, Congress Republicans could distance themselves from Trump, running different political messaging.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

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