US Republicans will eye 2020 ‘red wave’

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance She was originally appointed in April when Thad Cochran resigned and will serve to January 2021. The win means the Republicans will have 53 Senate seats for 2019-21, a net gain of two after the November 6 midterm elections. However, the Democrats will be the House of Representatives majority party. Impacts Democrat-led states will pass laws to protect voters’ voting rights. Republican-led states will push voter identification-related laws. Preparing for 2020, Congress Republicans could distance themselves from Trump, running different political messaging.

US voting rights controversies will grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Voter Suppression ◽  
Elected Representatives ◽  
Medicaid Expansions

Subject US voting rights controversies and risks. Significance When the Democrats become the House of Representatives majority in January, one of their priorities is pushing easier access to voting. This responds to concerns that races in this month’s midterm elections, and others, were tainted by voter suppression. Currently, norms surrounding voting rights and the certainty of elections are eroding, with potential long-term negative effects on US democratic processes, including increasing perceptions that elected representatives and the policy they produce might be illegitimate. Impacts Balloting this November will add momentum to calls for US nationwide marijuana legalisation, which is likely within ten years. Washington State’s failed carbon tax referendum suggests referenda are not yet a means by which climate policy will advance. Approval of Medicaid expansions in states that had resisted it will add momentum for this nationally.

Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010?

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 639-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred G. Cuzán
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Similar Model ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Successful Model ◽  
Midterm Elections

Historically, statistical models for forecasting the outcome of midterm elections to the United States House of Representatives have not been particularly successful (Jones and Cuzán 2006). However, in what may have been a breakthrough, most models correctly predicted that the Democrats would re-emerge as the majority party in 2006 (Cuzán 2007). One successful model was estimated using 46 elections, beginning with 1914 (only the second time that 435 representatives, the present number, were elected). The model was relatively simple, making use of national-level variables only (Cuzán and Bundrick 2006). Using a similar model, I generated a forecast for the 2010 midterm election.

Post-US-midterm dynamic could ease China trade spat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Immediate Release ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Telephone Conversation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Trade War ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows high-level China-US trade talks restarting after a November 1 Trump-Xi telephone conversation, November 6’s US midterm elections that delivered a Democrat-majority House of Representatives from January 2019 and US-China trade-related frictions at the APEC Summit (November 15-17) preventing a joint communique’s immediate release. These frictions have sparked fears of a US-China ‘trade war’, or worse, and what scenarios and drivers might see this avoided. Impacts China may eye further trade renegotiations with the next US president, from 2021 or 2025. Democrats would want any trade deal to include human rights and environmental protections; Beijing would certainly resist the former. China might offer intellectual property concessions on paper, since there are multiple ways to circumvent such restrictions. Trump could sell a ‘partial’ deal politically, but he may calculate that ‘China-the-adversary’ rhetoric will win more 2020 votes.

Prospects for US politics to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Lame Duck

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2018 Significance The midterm elections on November 6 will see the full 435-seat House of Representatives elected and one-third of the 100-seat Senate. Elections will also be held for most state legislatures and 36 of 50 governors. The onset of the midterms will influence what legislation is passed beforehand, what the outgoing Congress pursues in its 'lame duck' period after November and the political arithmetic post-January 2019, when the new 116th Congress convenes.

Trump will tilt further towards US religious right

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Private Life ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Term

Subject The US political influence of the religious right. Significance By determining which party holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, November's midterm elections will influence the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. Given the historically relatively low voter turnouts in off-presidential-election-cycle election years, Trump’s fortunes depend heavily on his ability to mobilise core conservative voters on behalf of the Republican Party. The religious right is currently Trump’s most intensely loyal constituency and his best hope for retaining Republican majorities in Congress. Impacts Trump will nominate more social conservatives to federal judgeships. Recent gains in special elections do not prove a Democratic resurgence but imply turnout will be higher in November than normal. A Democratic gain of one or both houses of Congress would dent the religious right’s national influence. If the Republicans retain Congress, the religious right will increase its influence further at the federal level. So far, allegations against Trump over his private life do not appear likely to diminish his core support.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

US House Democrats eye ambitious agenda from January

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Party Leaders

Subject Outlook for the Democrats' policy plans in the House of Representatives from January 2019. Significance In January, the Democrats become the House of Representatives majority. Party leaders are drafting their legislative programme but need to balance the ambitions of the party's left-wing activist base, which made gains in the November 6 midterms, with the party's desire to strengthen its congressional position and win the White House in 2020. The party also faces pressure from progressives for leadership positions, with some incoming representatives pledging to vote against Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's return as House speaker. Impacts A push to impeach Trump is unlikely, despite calls from the Democratic base, as it could look too politically motivated. Senate Republicans will appoint further tranches of conservative judges (and would bar any Trump impeachment). Democrats will conduct expansive investigations into the Trump team, assessing whether foreign agents influenced US policy.

Summit for Democracy raises more policy questions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance The online meeting, which included civil society groups and representatives from the business sector, was ostensibly a forum for considering strategies to bolster democratic institutions. However, it also offered implicit criticisms of China and Russia while playing to Biden’s domestic agenda, in particular efforts to strengthen voting rights and bolster social spending. Impacts The second summit is expected soon after the November 2022 US midterm elections, when further claims of electoral fraud are likely. Criticism of Washington’s choice of participants will spark calls for a multinational committee to set the invitation list. Controversy over Taiwan’s inclusion in the Summit for Democracy will increase during 2022.

Prospects for US politics for 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Midterm Elections

Subject Prospects for US politics for 2019. Significance The next US Congress convenes on January 3, 2019, after the November 6 midterm elections saw Democrats win the House of Representatives and Republicans keep, and likely expand, their Senate majority.

Majority Party Leadership and the Committee System in the House of Representatives

1974 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 1593-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis P. Westefield
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Leadership Strategy ◽  
Explicit Theory

In this paper one party leadership strategy with respect to the committee system of the House is examined. Building on several relatively clear concepts such as compliance, quality of assignment, expectation, scarcity, and exchange, a very elementary, yet explicit, theory is constructed. It is shown that the leaders pursue a strategy of accommodation. The leaders increase the number of positions on those committees prized by the members in order to guarantee a steady supply of resources to gain leverage with the members. But a steady increase in the supply of positions reduces the scarcity of positions and hence their value to the leaders. Thus, a consequence of the strategy is the need periodically to reorganize or make adjustments in the committee system.

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