Post-US-midterm dynamic could ease China trade spat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Immediate Release ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Telephone Conversation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Trade War ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows high-level China-US trade talks restarting after a November 1 Trump-Xi telephone conversation, November 6’s US midterm elections that delivered a Democrat-majority House of Representatives from January 2019 and US-China trade-related frictions at the APEC Summit (November 15-17) preventing a joint communique’s immediate release. These frictions have sparked fears of a US-China ‘trade war’, or worse, and what scenarios and drivers might see this avoided. Impacts China may eye further trade renegotiations with the next US president, from 2021 or 2025. Democrats would want any trade deal to include human rights and environmental protections; Beijing would certainly resist the former. China might offer intellectual property concessions on paper, since there are multiple ways to circumvent such restrictions. Trump could sell a ‘partial’ deal politically, but he may calculate that ‘China-the-adversary’ rhetoric will win more 2020 votes.

Canada-China trade ties face domestic opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Agricultural Industries ◽  
High Level

Subject Prospects for a Canada-China trade agreement. Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed interest in negotiating a trade agreement with China, and will lead a high-level delegation to China this March to secure opportunities for Canadian business. Increased trade with China could prove a significant boost to sectors of Canada's flagging commodities-driven economy, such as agri-business, finance and aerospace, but the domestic politics of trade in Canada remain controversial. Impacts Canada's oil, lumber and agricultural industries will lobby hard for any potential agreement. Political fallout surrounding the Energy East pipeline may hinder the Trudeau government's ability to meet Chinese preconditions elsewhere. Canadian criticism of China's human rights record and espionage activities may present complications if trade negotiations are undertaken.

US Republicans will eye 2020 ‘red wave’

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance She was originally appointed in April when Thad Cochran resigned and will serve to January 2021. The win means the Republicans will have 53 Senate seats for 2019-21, a net gain of two after the November 6 midterm elections. However, the Democrats will be the House of Representatives majority party. Impacts Democrat-led states will pass laws to protect voters’ voting rights. Republican-led states will push voter identification-related laws. Preparing for 2020, Congress Republicans could distance themselves from Trump, running different political messaging.

US firms will feel pressure in China, trade war or not

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Integrated Circuits ◽  
The United States ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.

Prospects for US politics to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Lame Duck

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2018 Significance The midterm elections on November 6 will see the full 435-seat House of Representatives elected and one-third of the 100-seat Senate. Elections will also be held for most state legislatures and 36 of 50 governors. The onset of the midterms will influence what legislation is passed beforehand, what the outgoing Congress pursues in its 'lame duck' period after November and the political arithmetic post-January 2019, when the new 116th Congress convenes.

Malaysia will be main test for Singapore’s leaders

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War

Subject Singapore's political challenges. Significance The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has begun what will be a lengthy leadership handover from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Heng Swee Keat, currently finance minister and the PAP’s first assistant secretary-general. Speculation is mounting that Lee could bring forward the general election due by January 2021. In recent months, Singapore’s relations with Malaysia have soured. Impacts Turbulent relations with Malaysia will have no impact on the PAP’s leadership handover. Malaysia-Singapore ministerial ties will mitigate the effects of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s erratic foreign policy. Judicial verdicts against legislators from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) could worsen the WP’s already weak position in parliament. A prolonged US-China trade war would lead to a further decline in exports to China from Singapore.

Weak forint will not shift Hungary’s monetary policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Bond ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Chinese Trade ◽  
Roll Back

Significance It dropped to 332.2, a decline of 5.7% since March 10, when the forint reached its strongest level against the euro this year. While the forint has fallen steadily against the single currency over the past several years -- it has lost 18% since November 2012, with half the decline occurring since mid-2017 -- it has come under more strain since March, owing to a combination of fallout from the US-China trade war and the persistently dovish policy stance of Hungary’s Central Bank (MNB). Impacts Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects for the euro-area. A technical recession is increasingly probable in Germany, where the benchmark ten-year government bond yield is at a near-record low. Central Europe’s economies are decoupling from the industrial slowdown in the largest EU economy, although divergences are narrowing. Renewed hopes of a US-Chinese trade truce, including a possible roll-back of existing tariffs, are improving sentiment towards EM.

scholarly journals US–China Trade War: Chinese Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Manjula Jain ◽  
Saloni Saraswat ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Intellectual Property Rights ◽  
The United States ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Trade Relationship ◽  
Trade War

The US–China trade relationship has expanded immensely after China’s reformation of its economy and liberalization in 1979. A very huge amount of trade takes place between the United States and China in terms of monetary value and quantity. China benefits the United States in several forms other than just trade, such as US firms seeking investment opportunities in China for their assembly units. Subsequently, China holds a huge amount of US treasury securities, and purchases US debt securities, which helps them to keep their interest rates low. However, even after the development of such a trade relationship, the United States has certain concerns relating to China’s intentions. From the United States’ point of view, China is not involved in a fair practice of trade. China has imposed state-directed policies that bend the flow of trade and investment opportunities. Furthermore, the United States has allegations against China pertaining to the issue of intellectual property rights along with mixed records on implementation of WTO obligations, establishment of procedures for impacting the value of its currency and restrictions on FDI. The United States claims that such policies from China’s side make a great impact on the US economy and thus is the concern of the Congress. The current president, Mr. Donald J. Trump, has pledged to promote the free and fair trade policy. So his administration has taken some severe steps to reduce the US bilateral trade deficit. The president first announced the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum at 25% and 15%, respectively. To this action of the United States, China retaliated by raising the tariffs on various goods that are imported from the United States. Furthermore, the United States claimed that it would take actions against Chinese intellectual property rights policies that could be a hindrance to the US stakeholders. Later, the United States released a two-stage plan to impose tariffs on Chinese imports that would directly affect Chinese industrial policies for which again there was retaliation by China by releasing their own two-stage plan for American imports that would adversely affect American industries. This paper is an attempt to analyze the effect of the trade war between the United States and China and briefly discusses about the impact of this war on China and the probable measures implemented by the country.

Trump will tilt further towards US religious right

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Private Life ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Term

Subject The US political influence of the religious right. Significance By determining which party holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, November's midterm elections will influence the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. Given the historically relatively low voter turnouts in off-presidential-election-cycle election years, Trump’s fortunes depend heavily on his ability to mobilise core conservative voters on behalf of the Republican Party. The religious right is currently Trump’s most intensely loyal constituency and his best hope for retaining Republican majorities in Congress. Impacts Trump will nominate more social conservatives to federal judgeships. Recent gains in special elections do not prove a Democratic resurgence but imply turnout will be higher in November than normal. A Democratic gain of one or both houses of Congress would dent the religious right’s national influence. If the Republicans retain Congress, the religious right will increase its influence further at the federal level. So far, allegations against Trump over his private life do not appear likely to diminish his core support.

US vice president to take more active foreign role

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us

Significance The investigations relate to concerns that Trump abused his office by seeking to have a political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, investigated by Ukraine, which Trump denies. It has brought into the spotlight the conduct of US policy towards Ukraine, and that has seen criticism of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It also comes as the Trump administration’s senior foreign policy team has seen personnel shifts. Impacts Pence will focus on foreign policy issues that resonate with evangelical voters, notably Israel and Middle Eastern Christians. Pence will also focus on promoting security and human rights abroad, leaving trade policy to Trump and trade officials. Pence will throw his support and influence behind getting the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed, and a US-China trade deal.

Portugal’s stable economic performance should continue

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Export Market ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Prudence ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Portugal's economic outlook. Significance Portugal has been one of the best performing euro-area economies since 2016. Last year the economy grew by 2%, while the Bank of Portugal forecasts growth to remain stable at 1.7% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021. The post-crisis turnaround continues to be powered by strong foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports, including tourism, and boosted by a decline in the real effective exchange rate. Impacts The threat of a global trade war has reduced following the 'phase one' US-China trade deal in January. A likely slowdown in the Spanish economy, Portugal’s largest export market, could weaken Portuguese growth. Portugal’s centre-left government will prioritise fiscal prudence this term, which will likely reduce the spread on bond yields.

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