China will press on with financial reform and opening

Subject Financial reform and opening in China. Significance Despite trade disputes with the United States and risks in emerging markets, China's leaders are showing determination to open the country's financial sector further to foreign businesses. Impacts Local governments and banks will come under pressure from waves of corporate defaults, but wider panic is unlikely. Struggling enterprises will be less able to rely on debt to survive. The strong supervision of the financial sector seen in 2017 will persist as the authorities seek to reduce systemic risk. The precise timeline given by the central bank shows policymakers' confidence that risks are adequately contained.

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul-Akeem Sadiq ◽  
Naim Kapucu ◽  
Qian Hu

PurposeThe purpose of this viewpoint article is to understand crisis leadership during COVID-19 by examining the decision-making with respect to implementing COVID-19 mitigation measures, collaboration with stakeholders, and communication strategies of the governors of the States of California, Texas, Florida, and New York in the United States.Design/methodology/approachThis viewpoint article employs information from the extant literature on crisis leadership and secondary sources to understand the four governor's crisis leadership strategies during COVID-19.FindingsGovernors Gavin Newsom of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York made quicker decisions regarding implementing COVID-19 mitigation measures (e.g. shutting down the economy, mandating physical distancing, issuing stay-at-home orders, mandating wearing face covering in public and issuing a state of emergency) compared to Governors Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida. In addition, all four governors collaborated with state and local governments, private entities, and nonprofits to address COVID-19. Finally, all four governors held some form of briefing on COVID-19 on a regular basis and used different media to get their information out to the public.Originality/valueThis viewpoint article uses decision-making regarding implementation of mitigation strategies, collaboration with stakeholders, and crisis communication strategy to understand governors' crisis leadership during COVID-19.


Significance Facing the region’s largest coronavirus outbreak, the authorities belatedly closed schools, banned all religious and social gatherings and asked people to stay indoors. However, since mid-April, they have loosened restrictions, reflecting the difficulties of the private sector as well as the government’s limited capacity to provide relief. Impacts The economic pressure from COVID-19 on top of sanctions may force Tehran to divert assets away from the conflict in Syria. Finance for operations in Iraq will be prioritised as a core Iranian interest as well as an arena to combat the United States. The central bank may be forced to print money to finance increased health spending and social security, risking extremely high inflation.


2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 385-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphanie Marie Stolz ◽  
Michael Wedow

Significance Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021. Few emerging markets will be widely vaccinated by end-2021, restricting, if not negating, their recoveries.


Subject Measles cases and vaccinations in the United States. Significance The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in late May there had been 971 reported cases of measles in 2019, surpassing the previous US record of 963 in 1994. Measles is highly contagious but had been eliminated in the United States in 2000. Now, however, it is back. The current outbreak is particularly affecting parts of New York City and within that, the Orthodox Jewish community. Impacts Social media firms could face government and public pressure further to help with public health campaigns. There will likely be court cases against local governments’ legal moves to compel people to be vaccinated. If vaccination levels do not increase markedly, inroads could be created into the problem by increasing US border health checks.


Significance Indirect negotiations with the United States over a mutual return to the 2015 nuclear deal are facing delays while the transition team of President-elect Ibrahim Raisi moves into place. Meanwhile, questions are mounting over the likely impact on foreign investment, even if most sanctions are lifted. Impacts The government will prioritise efforts to invite investment in sectors where it has inadequate access to technology. The government's reported use of frozen assets as central bank borrowing collateral would limit the fiscal impact of their release. If it remains unblocked, the Clubhouse app could increase popular involvement in economic debate.


Significance The passenger car market will expand by 2.7% in 2016, according to private sector estimates, with growth evenly spread between the BRICS, Europe and the United States. The industry will focus on three transformations: the push into emerging markets (EMs), exploiting the potential of data and connectivity and managing the regulatory drive towards cleaner fuels. Impacts Diesel will remain a viable fuel in European markets. However, tougher testing and lower filtering margins will strengthen the case for further hybridisation of new models. The limited response from European regulators risks diminishing the incentives for domestic manufacturers to make changes early. Volume manufacturers are squeezed between low-cost manufacturers and the premium brands when it comes to connectivity.


Subject US financial regulation outlook. Significance President-elect Donald Trump can make a decisive imprint on the financial regulatory institutions and practices of the United States. By selecting individuals who share the free-market principles he seeks to promote, he can reshape the personnel at key agencies. In tandem, he can work with the Republican-controlled Congress to enact new legislation delimiting regulatory agencies’ brief, authority and resources. Impacts Presidential appointees to head agencies will determine what issues are prioritised and how interventionist policy will be. A Trump SEC chair appointee is likely to encourage a return to industry self-policing over federal scrutiny and enforcement. Backsliding by US regulators could have a negative knock-on effect for international Basel IV negotiations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 745-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip G. Joyce ◽  
Aichiro Suryo Prabowo

PurposeThis paper reviews the response of both the national and state governments in the United States to the coronavirus pandemic and discusses budgetary challenges that are likely to be faced by the country over the next several years.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses government sources, analysis by internal and external think tanks and contemporaneous media accounts to describe both the problem and the governmental responses.FindingsSince the first cases appeared in the US in early 2020, and particularly as the numbers started to expand substantially by March of that year, governments at all levels have worked to both respond to the immediate public health crisis and mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic. This included some immediate actions by the Federal Reserve to introduce more liquidity and four separate pieces of legislation passed in March and April 2020. The effect of this legislation has been to add $2.5 tr to 2020 and 2021 deficits. State and local governments, meanwhile, face years of budget shortfalls, which will require them ultimately to raise taxes and cut spending and may also require additional fiscal stimulus from the federal government. The magnitude of the fiscal effects will be driven by whether there is a second wave, how long the recession lasts, and what additional responses will be necessary in order to get the pandemic under control and deal with its aftermath.Originality/valueThe paper is likely the first to summarize the information about the federal and state responses, and the likely future impacts, in a single place.


2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (27) ◽  
pp. 2934-2944
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Foggitt ◽  
André Heymans ◽  
Gary Van Vuuren

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