Iran deal's foreign investment impact would be limited

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Access To Technology ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Government

Significance Indirect negotiations with the United States over a mutual return to the 2015 nuclear deal are facing delays while the transition team of President-elect Ibrahim Raisi moves into place. Meanwhile, questions are mounting over the likely impact on foreign investment, even if most sanctions are lifted. Impacts The government will prioritise efforts to invite investment in sectors where it has inadequate access to technology. The government's reported use of frozen assets as central bank borrowing collateral would limit the fiscal impact of their release. If it remains unblocked, the Clubhouse app could increase popular involvement in economic debate.

Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Trade Agreements ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Reform

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

Nicaragua election criticism will not shake Ortega

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Political Repression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Increased Pressure

Significance The outcome comes as little surprise, given the repressive tactics used by the Ortega administration in the run-up to the vote, which included the disqualification or imprisonment of numerous opposition candidates. The United States and other international actors are now poised to put increased pressure on the re-elected government. Impacts The prospect of extended sanctions will act as a further disincentive to foreign investment. Ortega’s efforts to boost regional support through increased alignment with Honduras may lead to greater bilateral trade. More undocumented Nicaraguan migration looks inevitable, whether due to continuing political repression or worsening economic hardship.

Turkish-US talks may limit Armenian genocide damage

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Armenian Genocide ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.

Iran gas can diversify European supplies in long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 negotiating group (UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany) on July 14 promises to end most sanctions on the country, in return for suspension and monitoring of its nuclear programme. If ratified by all parties, it will create opportunities for an expansion of Iran's gas production and exports. Iran is the holder of the world's largest gas reserves, according to BP estimates. It is also the third-largest producer (after the United States and Russia, and probably having overtaken Qatar during 2015), and the fourth-largest consumer. Impacts Iran could increase gas exports by advancing projects stalled by sanctions, although most of these will take some years to come to fruition. Iran would seek to attract foreign investment into its gas industry to increase production and exports in the longer term. If this occurs, Iran will compete with other gas exporters, particularly Russia, into the 2020s.

UK Syria airstrikes strategy carries risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Security ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

China will press on with financial reform and opening

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Reform ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type

Subject Financial reform and opening in China. Significance Despite trade disputes with the United States and risks in emerging markets, China's leaders are showing determination to open the country's financial sector further to foreign businesses. Impacts Local governments and banks will come under pressure from waves of corporate defaults, but wider panic is unlikely. Struggling enterprises will be less able to rely on debt to survive. The strong supervision of the financial sector seen in 2017 will persist as the authorities seek to reduce systemic risk. The precise timeline given by the central bank shows policymakers' confidence that risks are adequately contained.

Mexico’s brain drain to continue unabated

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Brain Drain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Agency ◽  
National Council ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University

Subject Mexico's brain drain. Significance Recent studies suggest increasing numbers of skilled professionals are emigrating from Mexico. A report by the University of Zacatecas (UAZ) published in March shows more than 1.4 million Mexicans with postgraduate degrees left the country between 1990 and 2015 due to a lack of professional development opportunities. According the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT), the government agency responsible for policy in this area, 46% of skilled emigrants live in Europe, 30% in the United States, 12% in Latin America and 7% in Canada. Impacts Emigration of skilled workers will be a fiscal burden as it annuls the benefits of investing in human resources. Policies to attract foreign talent could mitigate the problem, but there is no evidence that this is being considered. A contentious election outcome could trigger instability, further fuelling the outward flow of highly skilled Mexicans.

Election reinforces the regime’s control of Algeria

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Liberation Front ◽  
The Government

Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.

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