Russia to survive but not thrive on current sanctions

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trickle Down

Significance The government insists it can ride out broader US and EU sanctions dating from 2014, a view supported by the Standard & Poor's (S&P) rating agency's July assessment that the Russian economy is strong enough to withstand new sanctions. Impacts While its food import ban will continue, Russia's ability to hit back with further counter-sanctions is limited. Sectoral sanctions against banks will trickle down to the real economy, impeding its expansion. Pro-Western, liberal voices will be marginalised as long as sanctions are in place.

Brazil impeachment battle will do short-term damage

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
First Year ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Government ◽  
Legal Grounds ◽  
Deep Recession ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

Significance This comes near the end of a tremendously challenging first year of Rousseff's second term, marked by collapsing popularity, mass protests and deep recession. However, impeachment is far from a foregone conclusion. The legal grounds are unclear and the government seems more likely than not to have enough congressional support to stave off the process. Indeed, the timing could increase the odds that Rousseff will complete her term. Impacts Financial markets will be especially volatile in the coming months. At best, a recovery in the real economy will not start before late 2016 or even 2017. Nevertheless, impeachment turbulence could gradually lead to more stable politics.

Crisis Reactions and Their Consequences for the Real Sector of the Russian Economy

2011 ◽  
pp. 39-50
Author(s):  
V. Lushin
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Acute Phase ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
The Real ◽  
Balanced Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Modernization

The author analyzes factors that led to a deeper fall in output and profitability in the real sector of the Russian economy in comparison with other segments during the acute phase of the financial crisis. It is argued that some contradictions in the government anti-recession policy, activities of the financial sector and natural monopolies lead to pumping out added value created in manufacturing and agriculture, increase symptoms of the «Dutch disease», etc. It is shown that it may threaten the balanced development of the Russian economy, and a set of measures is suggested to minimize these tendencies and create a basis for the state modernization policy.

Dynamic interactions between stock markets and the real economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 715-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikiforos T. Laopodis ◽  
Andreas Papastamou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between a country’s aggregate stock market and general economic development for 14 emerging economies for the period from 1995 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach The methodological approach of the paper is multifold. First, the authors use cointegration analysis to determine the simple dynamics among the variables. Second, the authors utilize vector autoregression analysis to study the dynamics among the variables for the 14 countries. Third, the authors employ panel analysis to determine common variations among the variables and across countries. Findings When examining the linkage between the stock market and economic development, proxied by gross domestic product growth or with gross fixed capital formation growth, the authors did not find a meaningful relationship between them. However, when the authors included additional control variables strong, dynamic interactions between the two magnitudes surfaced. Specifically, it was found that the stock market is positively and robustly correlated with contemporaneous and future real economic development and, thus, it directly contributed to a country’s economic development either through the production of goods and services or the accumulation of real capital. Thus, it can be inferred that the stock market alone is not capable of boosting economic development in these countries unless being part of a comprehensive financial system (which includes banks) as well as investment in real capital. Research limitations/implications The policy implications are clear. Government authorities must recognize that the stock market alone is not a driver of economic development and that a sound, efficient financial system (which includes banks) must be present in order to contribute and foster economic development. Originality/value The study is original in the sense that it examines various financial and economic variables to determine the degree of (or dynamic interactions among) the stock market and the real economy for each and all emerging markets in the sample.

Real effects of real estate: evidence from unemployment rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-623
Author(s):  
Can Dogan ◽  
John Can Topuz
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Estate Price ◽  
Real Effects ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a long time-series of MSA-level quarterly data from 1990 to 2018. It uses an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates using the geography-based land constraints measure of Saiz (2010) as the instrument. Findings The results show that changes in residential real estate prices do not have a causal effect on unemployment rates in the same quarter. However, it takes 9-12 months for an increase (decrease) in real estate prices to decrease (increase) unemployment rates. This effect is significant during both pre- and post-financial crisis periods and robust to control for the economic characteristics of MSAs. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to the emerging literature that studies the real effects of real estate. Particularly, the methodology and the findings can be used to investigate causal relationships between housing prices and small business development or economic growth. The findings are also of interest to policymakers and practitioners as they illustrate how and when real estate price shocks propagate to the real economy through unemployment rates. Practical implications This study’s findings have important implications for academics, policymakers and investors as they provide evidence of a snowball effect associated with shocks to real estate prices: increasing (decreasing) unemployment rates following a decrease (increase) in real estate prices exacerbates the real estate price movements and their economic consequences. Originality/value This paper analyzes a significantly longer period, from 1990 to 2018, than the existing literature. Additionally, it uses the MSA-level land unavailability measure of Saiz (2010) as an instrument to explore the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates and when those effects are observed in the real economy.

Examining financial needs of banking customers for product development in Islamic banking in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 712-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimatul Yumna
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Life Cycle Approach ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Financial Products ◽  
Qualitative Approaches

Purpose This study aims at product development in Syariah banking, using the theory of Pyramid of Maslahah. Product development are important aspects of Islamic banking to realize Maqasid Al Shariah and to better serve the real economy. Design/methodology/approach To understand the needs of the customers, this study uses qualitative approaches and collects primary data from semi-structured interviews of 25 banking customers in Indonesia. Findings The study found that the group of respondents who have similar characteristics in age, marital status and number of kids tend to have similar financial needs. Some of the needs that have not been fulfilled by Sharia banking are the needs for investment in banking products, the needs for pension plan products and the needs for travelling-related financial products. Practical implications This study proposed that Islamic banking should provide financial products that cater to three needs of the society, including the needs for necessities/essentials (daruriyat), the needs of complementary requirements (hajiyyat) and the needs for beautifications or embellishments (tahsiniyat), to be able to better serve the real economy. Originality/value Financial needs and the life cycle approach can be used for product development in banking industry. However, this approach has not been widely used for consideration in the development of Sharia banking products in Indonesia. This study provides some novelty in Islamic banking customer behavior, especially in understanding financial needs based on the theory of Pyramid of Maslahah.

Loan for Manufacturers Will Become More Affordable

Auditor ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-9
Author(s):  
Е. Смирнов ◽  
E. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Syndicated Loans ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Government

Entered into force in February this year, the federal law on syndicated loans, according to analysts of the Russian Parliament and the Government of Russia, will signifi cantly increase lending in the real economy and at the same time reduce the risks of creditors.

Egypt’s slum development plan will be applied unevenly

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Priority

Subject Plans to rid Egypt of its slums. Significance Since President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi came to office in June 2014, the eradication of informal settlements has officially been a top policy priority. More than 20 billion Egyptian pounds (1.2 billion dollars) has been allocated to the development and demolition of 351 slum areas since 2014. In February, Sisi pledged to rid the country of its slums by 2030. However, concerns have been raised about the lack of consultation with the communities affected. Impacts The slum redevelopment plans will drive growth in investment in the real estate and construction sectors. Public spending will increase from subsidised provision of electricity, water and sewerage services. The government will boost revenues by selling repossessed land to the private sector. Lack of consultation with residents over relocation will drive resentment among many of the poorest segments of society.

scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Performing Loans for the EEC Region. A Financial Stability Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 621-642
Author(s):  
Luminita Roxana Tatarici ◽  
Matei Nicolae Kubinschi ◽  
Dinu Barnea
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Real ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis article investigates the determinants of non-performing loans for a panel of EEC countries and the implications for the real economy, covering the period 2005-2017. Among the determinants, the paper proposes macroeconomic factors, banking sector variables, and cost and governance indicators. Additionally, the paper explores the extensive use of macroprudential measures in these countries. Using a panel with fixed effects and a dynamic GMM estimator, the results support the existing findings that adverse macroeconomic developments are generally associated with higher non-performing loans, while increases in NPLs have a rather transitory effect on the real economy and credit. NPL ratios increase if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, while an improvement in the government effectiveness reduces them. A more profitable and better capitalized banking sector generally leads to lower NPLs. Moreover, countries with higher past credit growth rates witnessed higher NPLs in the periods that followed. These results support the use of macroprudential measures for increasing the resilience of borrowers, such as limits on the indebtedness level (such as debt service-to-income, DSTI or loan-to-value, LTV caps), as tools to temper the credit cycle.

Chad’s Deby will tighten grip amid rising challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Family Members ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Political outlook for Chad. Significance In November, the government will likely miss a self-imposed deadline for holding long-delayed legislative elections. The real challenges to President Idriss Deby’s authority, however, may come from the country’s professional classes rather than the ballot box. Impacts Despite domestic turmoil, counterterrorism cooperation will likely keep Chad in the good graces of France and the United States. As budgetary difficulties persist, Chad will become increasingly beholden to international creditors and the IMF. Over the longer term, some of Deby’s associates and family members may grow restless as they wait for their turn in power.

Investor sentiment, market competition and trade credit supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 284-306
Author(s):  
Hongbin Huang ◽  
Ran Li ◽  
Ya Bai
Keyword(s):  
Trade Credit ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Credit Supply ◽  
Virtual Economy ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of investor sentiment on the supply of trade credit, and further explores the difference of the effect of investor sentiment on the supply of trade credit in the environment of strong market competition and weak market competition. Design/methodology/approach The authors use panel estimation techniques to examine the impact of investor sentiment in the Chinese securities market on the supply of corporate trade credit. Findings This paper finds that investor sentiment has positive impact on trade credit through three channels of motivation, willingness and ability. At the same time, this paper finds that investor sentiment has stronger impact on enterprises in strong market competition than enterprises in weak market competition. Research limitations/implications This paper expands the research on the influence of virtual economy on the real economy, analyzes the difference of the influence of investor sentiment on the supply of trade credit under different market competition conditions. Practical implications The paper perfects the mechanism of trade credit decision-making at this stage, and provides more evidence for the virtual economy to act on the real economy. Social implications This paper provides a theoretical basis for the government functional departments to use the investor sentiment to play a positive role in trade credit to improve the market competition and guide the development of China’s capital market in the direction of rationalization and health. Originality/value In combination with market competition environment and industry characteristics, this paper investigates external irrational factors and studies how investor sentiment affects trade credit supply.

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