Moroccans face more political and economic stagnation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Working Conditions ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Better Than

Significance Although the economy is still faring better than others in North Africa, public discontent has increased. Significant segments of the population, especially in rural areas, are economically marginalised and development favours the upper middle class. Protestors blame politicians for democratic stalling, economic hardship and unequal development; the authorities attempt to address these demands with superficial reforms mostly aimed at specific economic sectors. Impacts A consumer boycott aimed at figures close to the Palace, such as Agriculture Minister Aziz Akhannouch, could intensify. Endemic economic and political instability may deter foreign investment in 2018-19. The new finance minister will seek to reduce corruption and improve working conditions, with mixed success. Former Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane is unlikely to weaken his party by standing against the current premier.

New Sudan cabinet will entrench economic stagnation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Economic Stagnation

Subject Sudan's new cabinet. Significance The prime minister has appointed a new unity government, in accordance with a disputed 'national dialogue' framework completed last year. For the past five years, Sudan has been facing the combined economic pressures of budget cuts, reduced foreign investment, a weakening currency and rising inflation. The former government pushed through some subsidy cuts, despite public protests over the ensuing economic hardship. In January, Washington announced a lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan, raising Khartoum's hopes that it will become easier to attract foreign investment. Impacts Gulf institutions will provide new financing for energy and infrastructure projects. Mining and agriculture opportunities in the north and centre of the country could also attract some new investment. However, major Western companies will remain wary of doing business in Sudan.

Algeria aims to put its finances on a sustainable path

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Investment Law ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.

Camisea nationalisation threat may hit Peru's Castillo

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secure Environment

Significance Prime Minister Guido Bellido’s threat to nationalise Camisea has further stirred debate at the heart of government, this time about implementing a campaign pledge to this end, notwithstanding the government’s professed aim to create a secure environment for foreign investment. Bellido’s announcement did not have the backing of the cabinet as a whole. Impacts Bellido’s position will suffer if he is seen to backtrack on a key issue contained in Peru Libre’s manifesto. Polarised disagreements within the cabinet will persist. Castillo’s position will suffer from the lack of clear leadership.

E-commerce set to transform India's retailers

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Online Retail ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Small Traders

Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.

Budget gains may mask Serbia's slow structural reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Just In Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
To Come ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance The cabinet enters office just in time to host a fresh visit from the IMF, expected later this month. Despite another landslide victory in parliamentary elections on April 24, Prime Minister and Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader Aleksandar Vucic has been in no rush to form his next government. With parliament dissolved in early March, this has been a wasted year for reforms, economic or other. The next government must start working effectively if it is to make up for this, even partly. Impacts Dusan Vujovic, confirmed as finance minister, will remain the focal point for implementing the SBA. A new law on financing local government is likely to be adopted in late August or early September. This will transfer a portion of revenues from income tax from local authorities to the central government. The new government will need to come up with a less ambitious plan for public sector redundancies in 2016 and 2017.

Modi will lose much rural support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Farm Debt

Significance As the 2019 general election approaches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to secure the backing of India’s rural population, which is some two-thirds of the country’s total. Modi has encouraged state governments to waive farm debt worth up to 2.8 trillion rupees (39 billion dollars); suggested a procurement formula guaranteeing farmers a return of at least 1.5 times their costs of production; and promised to double farm incomes by 2022. Meanwhile, landowning castes are increasingly demanding opportunities in education and employment away from rural areas. Impacts State governments will try to pay off farm debts by issuing bonds. In election campaigning, opposition parties will claim to champion rural interests. An average 2018 monsoon should boost agricultural output.

Future of China-UK engagement lies in Beijing’s hands

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Educational Partnerships ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Large Numbers

Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks of a “calibrated” China policy that combines toughness in particular areas with continued engagement in others. Impacts Migration of Hongkongers to the United Kingdom in large numbers would invigorate anti-Beijing activism. Chinese investments in UK nuclear power are unlikely to proceed as planned. Beijing’s extraterritorial attempts to suppress dissent in the United Kingdom will intensify. Universities and researchers should expect a push for government-mandated reviews of UK-China research and educational partnerships. Beijing may target particular firms or economic sectors to ‘punish’ London, but most bilateral trade will continue.

Malaysia will be main test for Singapore’s leaders

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War

Subject Singapore's political challenges. Significance The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has begun what will be a lengthy leadership handover from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Heng Swee Keat, currently finance minister and the PAP’s first assistant secretary-general. Speculation is mounting that Lee could bring forward the general election due by January 2021. In recent months, Singapore’s relations with Malaysia have soured. Impacts Turbulent relations with Malaysia will have no impact on the PAP’s leadership handover. Malaysia-Singapore ministerial ties will mitigate the effects of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s erratic foreign policy. Judicial verdicts against legislators from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) could worsen the WP’s already weak position in parliament. A prolonged US-China trade war would lead to a further decline in exports to China from Singapore.

Russia will prioritise economic stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister

Significance The event typically serves as a barometer of economic confidence in Russia. Last year, few significant deals were announced, and foreign delegates were fewer in number than usual. This year, the message was that the Kremlin will focus on ensuring economic stability in a time of geopolitical turbulence rather than wide-ranging reforms. Impacts Kremlin will continue to hope and gamble on a return to high oil prices. Russia will retaliate against the continuation of EU sanctions decided on June 22 with an agriculture import ban. Speculation will grow over former finance minister Alexei Kudrin's possible return to politics as prime minister.

Zambia's effort to avoid IMF bailout faces headwinds

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Outlook for the Zambian budget. Significance On October 9, finance minister Alexander Chikwanda presented the 2016 state budget. It predicts strong GDP growth (4.6%) and targets a narrower fiscal deficit (from 6.9% to 3.8% next year), both positive signals to reassure donors, investors and ratings agencies. However, with a general election looming in less than a year and a confluence of economic shocks, his optimistic outlook rings hollow. Impacts Lungu's slim (1.7%) victory in the January presidential by-election increases his vulnerability to populist expenditure pressures. However, the effects of the economic crunch (such as higher food prices) will be worst in urban areas -- not his core constituency. Social and infrastructure spending such as the roads programme will instead focus on rural areas. Opposition divisions, along with backing from former presidents and the Daily Nation newspaper, increase his chances for re-election.

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