Russian metal exports adjust to tariffs and sanctions

Subject Russia's metals sector and its prospects. Significance Russia's metals sector is second in importance only to oil and gas. Steel is much more important in volume and value terms than non-ferrous metals, including sanctions-hit aluminium. Overcapacity in the sector means that investment is likely to be restricted to capacity maintenance and some new projects offering high value-added opportunities. Rusal, the largest Russian aluminium producer, has until November 12 to extricate itself from the US sanctions list, otherwise its domestic production will be hard hit, even though the government will try to increase domestic consumption of the metal. Impacts Volatility in the metals sector poses risks to employment and incomes in 84 of Russia's 319 single-industry towns ('monograds'). Taking aluminium processing to a higher stage in Russia will boost revenues at less environmental cost than that incurred at earlier stages. A dearth of expert personnel acting as 'innovation advocates' is hampering broader industrial application of aluminium-based technologies.

Significance Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has created worries in Ottawa that a more protectionist line from Washington could further dampen weak Canadian business investment and export growth. The government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced additional fiscal measures to stimulate economic growth, strengthen long-term economic competitiveness and provide more inclusive economic opportunities. Impacts Increased US oil and gas production could keep prices low, crimping the benefits of Canadian midstream investments. Backsliding on emissions reductions by Washington could sap political support for activist policies by Ottawa and other jurisdictions. US failure to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership would see Canada pursue bilateral arrangements with the Pacific Rim.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zia Wahdat ◽  
Michael Gunderson

PurposeThe study investigates whether there is an association between climate types and farm risk attitudes of principal operators.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits temperature variation in the diverse climate types across the US and defines hot- and cold-climate states. Ordered logit and generalized ordered logit models are used to model principal operators' farm risk attitudes, which are measured on a Likert scale. The study uses two datasets. The first dataset is a 2017 survey of US large commercial producers (LCPs). The second dataset provides a Köppen-Geiger climate classification of the US at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin for a 25-year period (1986–2010).FindingsThe study finds that principal operators in hot-climate states are 4–5% more likely to have a higher willingness to take farm risk compared to principal operators in cold-climate states.Research limitations/implicationsIt is likely that farm risk mitigation decisions differ between hot- and cold-climate states. For instance, the authors show that corn acres' enrollment in federal crop insurance and computers' usage for farm business are pursued more intensely in cold-climate states than in hot-climate states. A differentiation of farm risk attitude by hot- and cold-climate states may help agribusiness, the government and economists in their farm product offerings, farm risk management programs and agricultural finance models, respectively.Originality/valueBased on Köppen-Geiger climate classification, the study introduces hot- and cold-climate concepts to understand the relationship between climate types and principal operators' farm risk attitudes.


Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.


2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Delima Hasri Azahari

<p>Palm oil is one of the main commodities in Indonesia’s economy as it plays an important role in export market of the non-oil and gas sector. Palm oil industry at farm level deals with lack of replanting, low yield, low quality, and undeveloped downstream industry. Indonesia is relatively potential to develop the palm oil downstream industry given the existing market. Global palm oil demand keeps increasing despite negative campaigns against crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivative products. Land availability, labor supply and cultivation technology are supportive. This paper discusses and evaluates national palm oil performance, especially opportunities and challenges in creating value added to this industry. There are four main challenges, i.e. limited infrastructure and financing, lack of access to local authorities, land use conflict, and environment pressure. The government needs to implement policy priority on palm oil downstream industry which is more competitive, integrated, and sustainable.</p><p> </p><p>Abstrak</p><p>Komoditas kelapa sawit merupakan salah satu komoditas andalan perekonomian nasional dan sebagai penghasil devisa negara terbesar di sektor nonmigas. Permasalahan yang dihadapi industri kelapa sawit pada tingkat usaha tani adalah terbatasnya investasi untuk peremajaan, rendahnya produktivitas dan kualitas hasil, dan belum berkembungnya industri hilir secara maksimal sehingga produk-produk turunan kelapa sawit masih terbatas. Sementara itu, Indonesia masih memiliki potensi yang besar untuk meningkatkan nilai tambah melalui industri pengolahan turunan kelapa sawit jika dilihat dari sisi permintaan pasar maupun penawarannya. Dari sisi permintaan, permintaan kelapa sawit global terus meningkat walalupun dalam kondisi adanya kampanye negatif (black campaign) terhadap produk minyak sawit atau CPO (Crude Palm Oil) dan produk-produk turunannya. Dari sisi penawaran, ketersediaan lahan, tenaga kerja dan teknologi budi daya sangat menudukung. Tulisan ini membahas dan mengevaluasi kinerja industri sawit nasional, khususnya bagaimana peluang dan kendala penciptaan nilai tambah industri sawit. Tulisan ini menekankan empat kendala utama dalam pemanfaatan peluang tersebut, yaitu keterbatasan infrastruktur dan sumber pendanaan, akses otonomi daerah, konflik lahan, dan tekanan isu lingkungan. Dalam hal ini, pemerintah dituntut untuk dapat menerapkan berbagai kebijakan yang memprioritaskan pada hilirisasi kelapa sawit dengan pendekatan klaster/kawasan guna membangun struktur industri kelapa sawit yang berdaya saing, terpadu dan berkelanjutan. </p>


Significance This continues the policy preference -- out of line with Poland’s peers -- for indirect taxes on goods and services, including a relatively high value-added tax (VAT) rate. The government says the sugar tax aims to curb rising obesity, but critics suspect it is a new way of raising revenue. Impacts Corporate taxes could be raised as an alternative source of revenue. Left unaddressed, the regressive trend in taxes and rising inequality may create an opening for the leftist Spring and Together parties. If UK taxes rise post-pandemic, the relative fall in disposable income could encourage Polish immigrants to return to Poland.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngozi Adeleye ◽  
Evans Osabuohien ◽  
Simplice Asongu

PurposeThe study aims to analyse the role of finance in the agro-industrialisation nexus in Nigeria using annual data on manufacturing value added, agricultural value added and volume of finance availed to the agricultural sector from 1981 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachTo establish the presence of a long-run relationship, the error correction model and bounds cointegration techniques are employed. Likewise, the model is augmented to test whether the associated relationship between industrial output and agricultural output depends on access to finance by farmers with the inclusion of an interaction term.FindingsSome salient contributions to the literature are as follows: agriculture and finance are strong and positive predictors of industrialisation in the long run; in the short run, past realisations of industrial output and finance have significant asymmetric effects on industrial output; the explanatory power of agriculture decreases with the growth of the financial system; and the long-run results validate the role of finance in the agro-industrialisation nexus.Originality/valueGiven these findings, achieving growth in the agricultural sector that will induce desired industrialisation should be prioritised by the government through agencies such as the central bank, financial intermediaries and other stakeholders with a view to making agricultural financing a major concern for sustainable domestic consumption and industrial growth.


Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.


Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.


Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.


Subject Developments on transparency in the extractives sector. Significance Transparency legislation on the extractives sector progressed in December 2015 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission published a revised proposal to enhance the transparency of extractive (ie, mining and oil and gas) industries' payments to governments in producing countries. The aim is to provide information on financial transfers which can then be used by civil society, media and other stakeholders to hold those governments to account. The United States was a pioneer in this area, but litigation against its original initiative delayed its progress. Impacts Low commodity prices shift the balance of power from producing countries to consuming ones. That makes producer countries more susceptible to pressures for reform and may be a good time to push for greater transparency. However, opaque and inaccessible power structures in producer states could still limit NGO capacity to use more data to reduce corruption. A test of this will be whether the issue of resource transparency gains traction within the G20.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document