Germany will face long-term housing problems

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Social Housing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Housing Investment ◽  
Will Force ◽  
German Cities

Subject Germany's housing dilemma. Significance Demographic changes and the shift from publicly to corporately owned housing have led to accommodation shortages and rising rents in West German cities. Despite the government's plans for large-scale social housing investment, these trends will have long-term implications for Germany's housing market. Impacts Over-priced real estate will force developers to invest overseas. Accommodation shortfalls and rising prices will result in mass mobilisation and protests of young people across Germany. Lack of social housing will increase rates of homelessness in German cities.

Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sviatlana Engerstam
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
German Cities

PurposeThis study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control.Originality/valueIn distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of housing market: a role of financial crises in developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman ◽  
Md Al Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
House Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

Purpose This study aims to examine the house price fluctuations in G7 countries by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) for the years 1970–2019. The study examined the market efficiency between the short-term and long-term in the full sample period, before and after the global financial crisis period. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the MF-DFA to analyze house price fluctuations. Findings The findings confirmed that the housing market series are multifractal. Furthermore, all the markets showed long-term persistence in both the short and long-term. The USA is identified as the most persistent house market in the short run and Japan in the long run. Moreover, in terms of efficiency, Canada is identified as the most efficient house market in the long run and the UK in the short run. Finally, the result of before and after the financial crisis period is consistent with the full sample result. Originality/value The contribution of this study in the literature is fourfold. This is the first study that has examined the house prices efficiency by using the MF-DFA technique given by Kantelhardt et al. (2002). Previously, the house market prices and efficiency has been investigated using generalized Hurst exponent (Liu et al., 2019), Quantile Regression Approach (Chae and Bera, 2019; Tiwari et al., 2019) but no study to the best of the knowledge has been done that has used the MF-DFA technique on the housing market. Second, this is the first study that has focused on the house markets of G7 countries. Third, this study explores the house market efficiency by dividing the market into two periods i.e. before and after the financial crisis. The study strives to investigate if the financial crisis determines the change in the degree of market efficiency or not. Finally, the study gives valuable insights to the investors that will help them in their investment decisions.

scholarly journals Chromosomal Rearrangements in Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhi Strains Isolated from Asymptomatic Human Carriers

mBio ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. David Matthews ◽  
Wolfgang Rabsch ◽  
Stanley Maloy
Keyword(s):  
Salmonella Enterica ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Chromosomal Rearrangements ◽  
Growth Conditions ◽  
Genetic Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Term Storage ◽  
Bacterial Chromosomes ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTHost-specific serovars ofSalmonella entericaoften have large-scale chromosomal rearrangements that occur by recombination betweenrrnoperons. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these rearrangements: (i) replichore imbalance from horizontal gene transfer drives the rearrangements to restore balance, or (ii) the rearrangements are a consequence of the host-specific lifestyle. Although recent evidence has refuted the replichore balance hypothesis, there has been no direct evidence for the lifestyle hypothesis. To test this hypothesis, we determined therrnarrangement type for 20Salmonella entericaserovar Typhi strains obtained from human carriers at periodic intervals over multiple years. These strains were also phage typed and analyzed for rearrangements that occurred over long-term storage versus routine culturing. Strains isolated from the same carrier at different time points often exhibited different arrangement types. Furthermore, colonies isolated directly from the Dorset egg slants used to store the strains also had different arrangement types. In contrast, colonies that were repeatedly cultured always had the same arrangement type. Estimated replichore balance of isolated strains did not improve over time, and some of the rearrangements resulted in decreased replicore balance. Our results support the hypothesis that the restricted lifestyle of host-specificSalmonellais responsible for the frequent chromosomal rearrangements in these serovars.IMPORTANCEAlthough it was previously thought that bacterial chromosomes were stable, comparative genomics has demonstrated that bacterial chromosomes are dynamic, undergoing rearrangements that change the order and expression of genes. While mostSalmonellastrains have a conserved chromosomal arrangement type, rearrangements are very common in host-specificSalmonellastrains. This study suggests that chromosome rearrangements in the host-specificSalmonella entericaserovar Typhi, the causal agent of typhoid fever, occur within the human host over time. The results also indicate that rearrangements can occur during long-term maintenance on laboratory medium. Although these genetic changes do not limit survival under slow-growth conditions, they may limit the survival ofSalmonellaTyphi in other environments, as predicted for the role of pseudogenes and genome reduction in niche-restricted bacteria.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

scholarly journals Lost in migration: document quality for batch conversion to PDF/A

2018 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Erwin Suri ◽  
Mohamed El-Saad
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Batch Processing ◽  
Digital Archives ◽  
Adobe Acrobat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Text Document ◽  
File Formats ◽  
Long Term Preservation

PurposeChanges in file format specifications challenge long-term preservation of digital documents. Digital archives thus often focus on specific file formats that are well suited for long-term preservation, such as the PDF/A format. Since only few customers submit PDF/A files, digital archives may consider converting submitted files to the PDF/A format. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approachThe authors evaluated three software tools for batch conversion of common file formats to PDF/A-1b: LuraTech PDF Compressor, Adobe Acrobat XI Pro and 3-HeightsTMDocument Converter by PDF Tools. The test set consisted of 80 files, with 10 files each of the eight file types JPEG, MS PowerPoint, PDF, PNG, MS Word, MS Excel, MSG and “web page.”FindingsBatch processing was sometimes hindered by stops that required manual interference. Depending on the software tool, three to four of these stops occurred during batch processing of the 80 test files. Furthermore, the conversion tools sometimes failed to produce output files even for supported file formats: three (Adobe Pro) up to seven (LuraTech and 3-HeightsTM) PDF/A-1b files were not produced. Since Adobe Pro does not convert e-mails, a total of 213 PDF/A-1b files were produced. The faithfulness of each conversion was investigated by comparing the visual appearance of the input document with that of the produced PDF/A-1b document on a computer screen. Meticulous visual inspection revealed that the conversion to PDF/A-1b impaired the information content in 24 of the converted 213 files (11 percent). These reproducibility errors included loss of links, loss of other document content (unreadable characters, missing text, document part missing), updated fields (reflecting time and folder of conversion), vector graphics issues and spelling errors.Originality/valueThese results indicate that large-scale batch conversions of heterogeneous files to PDF/A-1b cause complex issues that need to be addressed for each individual file. Even with considerable efforts, some information loss seems unavoidable if large numbers of files from heterogeneous sources are migrated to the PDF/A-1b format.

Early impact of Covid-19 on private sector employees finance homeownership in Kingdom of Saudia Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raed Khamis Alharbi
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Housing Finance ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Uncertainty ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Future Policy

Purpose For almost two years, the economic shocks and financial uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic have affected all sectors. The private sector employees may be the worst hit. This is because of the lockdown across many countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), leading to income irregularities. Studies exploring private-sector employees concerning housing finance for the houses purchased and how the lockdown has affected their sources of income for repayment plans are scarce. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the possible early negative impacts of Covid-19 on private sector employees’ housing finance homeownership in KSA. Design/methodology/approach A phenomenology type of qualitative research was used. Data were sourced from three cities (Riyadh, Al-Qassim and Medina) and three mortgage banks across KSA. Virtual interviews via Zoom and WhatsApp video calls were conducted with engaged participants (bankers, government agencies and private sector employees). Thematic analysis was adopted, and the analysed data was presented in themes. Findings Findings show that the partial and full lockdown resulted in income irregularities in many private businesses. Also, findings identified downsizing, leading to large-scale unemployment, half-monthly income for employees, loss of profit, human resources wastage, etc. Findings reveal that because of the economic shock, many homeowners have not been able to meet up with their monthly mortgage repayment obligation. Also, the absence of financial support in form of socioeconomic needs has not helped the matter. Research limitations/implications The paper is limited to the early negative impacts of Covid-19 on private sector employees’ housing finance homeownership in KSA and data collected via Zoom and WhatsApp video calls across the three main cities. The recommendations that will emerge from this study may be adopted by other Gulf and Islamic countries with similar homeownership repayment challenges. Practical implications This study would stir key stakeholders, especially the policymakers and mortgage institutions to consider future policy principles that focus on who is at the highest risk for housing-related hardships because of the Covid-19 or future pandemic. The outcome can be used to develop an equitable housing policy framework to foster long-term economic mobility and be validated in the future by scholars. Originality/value Similar research in this area is limited, which makes this study one of the pioneering attempts to investigate the early negative impacts of Covid-19 on private sector employees’ housing finance homeownership in KSA. The paper sheds light on the emerged early negative impacts and proffer feasible possible solutions to promote homeownership amongst Saudi citizens.

Property investor decisions using income and rental ratio signals

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Billie Ann Brotman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Real Estate Prices

PurposeThis paper, a case study, aims to consider whether the income ratio and rental ratio tracks the formation of residential housing price spikes and their collapse. The ratios are measuring the risk associated with house price stability. They may signal whether a real estate investor should consider purchasing real property, continue holding it or consider selling it. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) calculates and publishes income ratios for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to measure “irrational exuberance,” which is a measure of housing price risk for a given country's housing market. The USA is a member of the organization. The income ratio idea is being repurposed to act as a buy/sell signal for real estate investors.Design/methodology/approachThe income ratio calculated by the Dallas Fed and this case study's ratio were date-stamped and graphed to determine whether the 2006–2008 housing “bubble and burst” could be visually detected. An ordinary least squares regression with the data transformed into logs and a regression with structural data breaks for the years 1990 through 2019 were modeled using the independent variables income ratio, rent ratio and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The descriptive statistics show a gradual increase in the ratios prior to exposure to an unexpected, exogenous financial shock, which took several months to grow and collapse. The regression analysis with breaks indicates that the income ratio can predict changes in housing prices using a lead of 2 months.FindingsThe gradual increases in the ratios with predetermine limits set by the real estate investor may trigger a sell decision when a specified rate is reached for the ratios even when housing prices are still rising. The independent variables were significant, but the rent ratio had the correct sign only with the regression with time breaks model was used. The housing spike using the Dallas Fed's income ratio and this study's income ratio indicated that the housing boom and collapse occurred rapidly. The boom does not appear to be a continuous housing price increase followed by a sudden price drop when ratio analysis is used. The income ratio is significant through time, but the rental ratio and Consumer Sentiment Index are insignificant for multiple-time breaks.Research limitations/implicationsInvestors should consider the relative prices of residential housing in a neighborhood when purchasing a property coupled with income and rental ratio trends that are taking place in the local market. High relative income ratios may signal that when an unexpected adverse event occurs the housing market may enter a state of crisis. The relative housing prices to income ratio indicates there is rising housing price stability risk. Aggregate data for the country are used, whereas real estate prices are also significantly impacted by local conditions.Practical implicationsRatio trends might enable real estate investors and homeowners to determine when to sell real estate investments prior to a price collapse and preserve wealth, which would otherwise result in the loss of equity. Higher exuberance ratios should result in an increase in the discount rate, which results in lower valuations as measured by the formula net operating income dividend by the discount rate. It can also signal when to start reinvesting in real estate, because real estate prices are rising, and the ratios are relative low compared to income.Social implicationsThe graphical descriptive depictions seem to suggest that government intervention into the housing market while a spike is forming may not be possible due to the speed with which a spike forms and collapses. Expected income declines would cause the income ratios to change and signal that housing prices will start declining. Both the income and rental ratios in the US housing market have continued to increase since 2008.Originality/valueA consumer sentiment variable was added to the analysis. Prior researchers have suggested adding a consumer sentiment explanatory variable to the model. The results generated for this variable were counterintuitive. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price index results signaled a change during a different year than when the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index is used. Many prior studies used the FHFA price index. They emphasized regulatory issues associated with changing exuberance ratio levels. This case study applies these ideas to measure relative increases in risk, which should impact the discount rate used to estimate the intrinsic value of a residential property.

A comparative computational and behavioral analysis of real estate performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. DeLisle ◽  
Terry V. Grissom
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
State Space ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Behavior ◽  
Market State

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space environment that can influence agent responses. Design/methodology/approach The analytical design uses a comparative computational experiment to address the performance of property assets in the current market based on comparison with prior structural patterns. The latent variables developed across market sectors are used to test agent behavior contingent on the perspectives of capital asset pricing conditionals (CAPM) and a behavioral momentum/herd construct. The state-space momentum analysis can assist the comparative analysis of current levels and shifts in property asset performance given the issues that have arisen with the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Findings An analytic approach is employed framed by a situation-dependent model. This frame considers risk profiles characterizing the perspectives and preferences guiding a delineated market state. This perspective is concerned with the possibility of shifts in market momentum and representativeness conditioning investor expectations. It is observed that the current market (post-crisis) has changed significantly from the prior operations (despite the diversity observed in prior market states). The dynamics of initial findings required an additional test anchored to the performance of the general capital market and the real economy across time. This context supports the use of a modified CAPM model allowing the consideration of opportunity cost in a space-time dynamic anchored with the consideration of equity, debt, riskless asset and liquidity options as they varied for the representative agents operating per market state. Research limitations/implications This paper integrates neoclassical and behavioral economic constructs. Combines asset pricing with prospect theory and allows the calculation of endogenous time-preferences, risk attitudes and formulation and testing of hyperbolic discounting functions. Practical implications The research shows that market structure and agent behavior since the financial crisis has changed from the investment and valuation perspectives operating as observed and measured from 1970 up to 2007. In contradiction to the long-term findings of Reinhart and Rogoff (2008), but in compliance with common perspectives and decision heuristics often employed by investors, this time things have changed! Discounting and expected rates of return are dynamic and are hyperbolic and not constant. Returns and investment for property assets are situational (market state-space specific) and offer a distinct asset class, not appropriately estimated by many of the traditional financial models. Social implications Assist in supporting insights to measure in errors and equations that result in inefficient resource allocation and beta discounting that supports the financial crisis created by assets subject to long-term decision needs (delta function). Originality/value The paper offers a combination and comparison of neoclassic asset pricing using a modified CAPM (two-pass) approach within the structural frame of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory. This technique allows the consideration of the effects of present bias, beta-delta functions and the operation of the Allais Paradox in market states that are characterized by gains and losses and thus risk aversion and risk seeking behavior. This ability for differentiation allows for the development of endogenous time-preferences and hyperbolic discounting factors characteristic of commercial property investment.

The housing demand analysis and prediction of the real estate based on the AWGM (1, N) model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Xiong ◽  
Huan Guo ◽  
Xi Hu
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Order ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Grey Relational

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to seek to drive the modernization of the entire national economy and maintain in the long-term stability of the whole society; this paper proposes an improved model based on the first-order multivariable grey model [GM (1, N) model] for predicting the housing demand and solving the housing demand problem.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes an improved model based on the first-order multivariable grey model [GM (1, N) model] for predicting the housing demand and solving the housing demand problem. First, a novel variable SW evaluation algorithm is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis, and then the grey relational analysis (GRA) algorithm is utilized to select influencing factors of the commodity housing market. Finally, the AWGM (1, N) model is established to predict the housing demand.FindingsThis paper selects seven factors to predict the housing demand and find out the order of grey relational ranked from large to small: the completed area of the commodity housing> the per capita housing area> the one-year lending rate> the nonagricultural population > GDP > average price of the commodity housing > per capita disposable income.Practical implicationsThe model constructed in the paper can be effectively applied to the analysis and prediction of Chinese real estate market scientifically and reasonably.Originality/valueThe factors of the commodity housing market in Wuhan are considered as an example to analyze the sales area of the commodity housing from 2015 to 2017 and predict its trend from 2018 to 2019. The comparison between demand for the commodity housing actual value and one for model predicted value is capability to verify the effectiveness of the authors’ proposed algorithm.

Exhibition destination attractiveness – organizers' and visitors’ perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 2795-2819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Jin ◽  
Karin Weber
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Destination Attractiveness ◽  
Practical Guidelines ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
Business Events ◽  
Business To Business

Purpose The purpose of this study was to provide a holistic view of exhibition destination attractiveness by examining perceptions of two of the three key stakeholders (exhibition organizers and visitors) and contrasting them with those of exhibitors. Design/methodology/approach This research used a mixed method approach, collecting 535 responses from visitors attending nine business-to-business exhibitions in four major cities in China via structured surveys. In addition, eight in-depth interviews with CEOs/owners of leading global and Chinese exhibition companies were conducted. Findings The findings revealed that exhibitors may go almost anywhere where there is potential for successful business. In contrast, visitors prefer exhibition destinations with good accessibility to minimize travel time and an attractive leisure environment that offers a degree of enjoyment in addition to taking care of business. A destination’s “economic environment” and “cluster effects” were comparatively less important to them. Organizers were cognizant of these differences, contributing to their reluctance in taking large-scale, branded exhibitions to second-tier destinations, despite considerable efforts by these cities to improve their infrastructure. Practical implications This study offers practical guidelines for destination administrators and exhibition organizers with regard to evaluating destination resources for long-term exhibition development. Originality/value In contrast to prior studies, this research identifies significant differences in perceptions of exhibition destination attractiveness among all three key industry stakeholders. It also presents a persuasive case for the need to clearly differentiate between the attractiveness of a destination for attracting/hosting exhibitions versus conventions, rather than approaching the subject from a more generic meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) segment/business events perspective.

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