Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Papua New Guinea may encounter 'resource curse'

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Rating agency Moody’s on March 23 shifted Papua New Guinea (PNG) to 'negative watch', a further indication of the economic challenges facing the re-elected Peter O’Neill government as it prepares to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November this year. PNG in February suffered its largest earthquake for nearly a century in areas surrounding the largest resource projects in the country. Impacts Despite a planned major expansion in LNG production, recent policy decisions suggest a troubled business environment. Reversals in economic policy, combined with the earthquake, will further depress GDP growth. Prime Minister Peter O’Neill is weaving together a large coalition which should cement his position until at least after APEC. Foreign exchange shortages will harm growth and discourage investment, due to fears that firms cannot pay dividends to foreign shareholders.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

Corruption may undermine Kenyan government credibility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political System ◽  
Zero Tolerance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions

Significance Kenya has been rocked by a string of corruption scandals in government institutions over recent weeks. The episode has served as a powerful reminder to both ordinary Kenyans and foreign investors that public-sector corruption remains pervasive -- and that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government has failed to make significant inroads on the issue despite its rhetorical claims of ‘zero tolerance’. Impacts The lack of progress in anti-corruption efforts will raise concern among donor countries. Along with other barriers, evidence of corruption will limit FDI and constrain GDP growth in the medium term. Failure to tackle graft will erode public confidence in the political system, leading to further civil society protests.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Slower Chile growth will bring electoral challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower Middle Class ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Chile's economic outlook. Significance On July 23, in an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its forecast for economic growth this year in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1.4% to 0.6%, due principally to a sharp cut for Brazil. By contrast, the reduction for Chile, from 3.4% to 3.2%, was small but may err on the side of optimism. Impacts Dependence on copper remains a key challenge for Chile as regards both GDP growth and fiscal revenues. Slower growth particularly worries the new lower-middle class, eager for further gains in living standards. In the foreseeable future, Chile’s economic performance will likely be constrained by external conditions.

Mexico's weak GDP growth will outlast Pena Nieto

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.

France’s economy will fail to accelerate in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Public ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject France’s economic outlook for 2017. Significance Since 2014, growth in France has trailed that in the euro-area as a whole. After averaging a mere 0.5% per year in 2012-14, GDP growth recovered in 2015 to 1.3%, but has failed to accelerate. In 2016, GDP expanded by 1.2%, according to official estimates. GDP growth is expected to converge towards the euro-area’s average in 2017, but this is due to the expected slowdown in the euro-area rather than France’s better performance. Impacts The country will look to the new president, elected in May 2017, to reduce unemployment and mend the public finances. Nevertheless, radical reform plans are likely to meet fierce resistance, including from trade unions. Reversing the strong and long-standing erosion of France’s external competitiveness may be difficult.

Prospects for African economies in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Prospects for African economies in 2019. Significance Sub-Saharan Africa’s gradual recovery is set to strengthen in 2019 with regional GDP growth seen accelerating to 3.1% from 2.7% in 2018, led by recoveries in the three largest economies -- Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to average around 4% over the medium term, reflecting continuing convergence between high- and low-performing countries, although wide disparities will persist.

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