Prospects for US politics for 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Midterm Elections

Subject Prospects for US politics for 2019. Significance The next US Congress convenes on January 3, 2019, after the November 6 midterm elections saw Democrats win the House of Representatives and Republicans keep, and likely expand, their Senate majority.

US Republicans will eye 2020 ‘red wave’

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance She was originally appointed in April when Thad Cochran resigned and will serve to January 2021. The win means the Republicans will have 53 Senate seats for 2019-21, a net gain of two after the November 6 midterm elections. However, the Democrats will be the House of Representatives majority party. Impacts Democrat-led states will pass laws to protect voters’ voting rights. Republican-led states will push voter identification-related laws. Preparing for 2020, Congress Republicans could distance themselves from Trump, running different political messaging.

Post-US-midterm dynamic could ease China trade spat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Immediate Release ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Telephone Conversation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Trade War ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows high-level China-US trade talks restarting after a November 1 Trump-Xi telephone conversation, November 6’s US midterm elections that delivered a Democrat-majority House of Representatives from January 2019 and US-China trade-related frictions at the APEC Summit (November 15-17) preventing a joint communique’s immediate release. These frictions have sparked fears of a US-China ‘trade war’, or worse, and what scenarios and drivers might see this avoided. Impacts China may eye further trade renegotiations with the next US president, from 2021 or 2025. Democrats would want any trade deal to include human rights and environmental protections; Beijing would certainly resist the former. China might offer intellectual property concessions on paper, since there are multiple ways to circumvent such restrictions. Trump could sell a ‘partial’ deal politically, but he may calculate that ‘China-the-adversary’ rhetoric will win more 2020 votes.

Prospects for US politics to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Lame Duck

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2018 Significance The midterm elections on November 6 will see the full 435-seat House of Representatives elected and one-third of the 100-seat Senate. Elections will also be held for most state legislatures and 36 of 50 governors. The onset of the midterms will influence what legislation is passed beforehand, what the outgoing Congress pursues in its 'lame duck' period after November and the political arithmetic post-January 2019, when the new 116th Congress convenes.

Trump will tilt further towards US religious right

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Private Life ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Term

Subject The US political influence of the religious right. Significance By determining which party holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, November's midterm elections will influence the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. Given the historically relatively low voter turnouts in off-presidential-election-cycle election years, Trump’s fortunes depend heavily on his ability to mobilise core conservative voters on behalf of the Republican Party. The religious right is currently Trump’s most intensely loyal constituency and his best hope for retaining Republican majorities in Congress. Impacts Trump will nominate more social conservatives to federal judgeships. Recent gains in special elections do not prove a Democratic resurgence but imply turnout will be higher in November than normal. A Democratic gain of one or both houses of Congress would dent the religious right’s national influence. If the Republicans retain Congress, the religious right will increase its influence further at the federal level. So far, allegations against Trump over his private life do not appear likely to diminish his core support.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

Impasses likely to persist in 116th US Congress

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Justice Reform ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Mexico Border ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
The Military ◽  
Us Mexico Border

Significance The impasse has bedevilled the 115th Congress that is now in its ‘lame duck’ period after November 8’s midterm elections, already causing two government shutdowns this year. Impacts The outgoing Congress is considering criminal justice reform measures; this could win bipartisan agreement in 2019. Trump could push for the military to strengthen US-Mexico border infrastructure, but that would divert military funds. Any fiscal legislation impasse could contribute to risks that US economic growth will slow in 2019-20. House Democrats will push to impeach Trump if Mueller’s report reveals information that would similarly shock Senate Republicans. House Democrats will likely initiate multiple investigations of Trump and his administration.

Some cooperation is possible in next US Congress

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Executive Orders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Political Appointees ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
President Elect

Significance At best, Democrats can tie the Senate 50-50, controlling it after January 20 with the Democratic US vice-president’s vote. Otherwise, Republicans will have a small majority to frustrate much of President-elect Joe Biden’s legislative agenda; but a blanket refusal to cooperate with Biden could threaten chances in the midterm elections. Impacts A divided Senate would see Biden use executive orders and ‘whole-government’ rulemaking more often. Post-Trump, Senate Republicans will be more fiscally conservative, thwarting Biden spending plans. Some Trump political appointees may break with precedent and refuse to resign when Biden begins. Senate blocking of progressive House-passed legislation risks worsening the divide between moderate and progressive Democrats.

US Congress will challenge deterrence strategy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Significance Trump and his immediate predecessors have made extensive use of powers granted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to deploy armed force widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives seeks to curtail this. For the administration, this is a direct challenge to its ability to rebuild deterrence, in an age of rising inter-state competition, through greater military capability and convincing rivals that it can and will be used. Impacts Trump will campaign electorally on rebuilding the US military and deterrence capability. The administration will continue ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran but avoid new highly provocative steps. Trump will seek to reinvigorate North Korea talks and push his Middle East peace deal, to boost re-election prospects. Congress, especially Democrats, will try to limit Trump’s foreign policy powers, unsuccessfully, without veto-proof majorities. Unless and until Trump is re-elected, US allies and adversaries will be less likely to bow to administration policy pressure.

US voting rights controversies will grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Voter Suppression ◽  
Elected Representatives ◽  
Medicaid Expansions

Subject US voting rights controversies and risks. Significance When the Democrats become the House of Representatives majority in January, one of their priorities is pushing easier access to voting. This responds to concerns that races in this month’s midterm elections, and others, were tainted by voter suppression. Currently, norms surrounding voting rights and the certainty of elections are eroding, with potential long-term negative effects on US democratic processes, including increasing perceptions that elected representatives and the policy they produce might be illegitimate. Impacts Balloting this November will add momentum to calls for US nationwide marijuana legalisation, which is likely within ten years. Washington State’s failed carbon tax referendum suggests referenda are not yet a means by which climate policy will advance. Approval of Medicaid expansions in states that had resisted it will add momentum for this nationally.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document