Peace process becomes US-Afghan contest

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Meeting

Significance Ghani is trying to counter what he sees as precipitate decisions made during US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad's recent meeting with Taliban representatives, which include a US troop drawdown and reportedly the formation of a transitional government. Impacts A parallel Russian-led process gives the Taliban an alternative platform, but Moscow has little to offer compared to Washington. Ghani's political opponents are using the Russian talks as a venue for bargaining separately with the Taliban. Fissures within the Taliban raise questions about whether delegates to talks are representative or empowered.

South Sudan peace process faces ingrained stagnation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Kokang conflict will damage China-Myanmar ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Culture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
National League ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
Near Term

Subject The fallout from the violence in Kokang. Significance On February 9, fighting broke out in Kokang between Myanmar's military ('Tatmadaw') and rebel group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which fights for greater autonomy within Myanmar. Kokang, in northern Shan State, borders China. Most Kokang people are ethnic Chinese and many speak Mandarin. Myanmar's government faces two problems: a peace process with ethnic armed rebel groups that is now adrift, and a sudden spike in frictions with Beijing while large numbers of refugees seek sanctuary in China. Impacts Absent a change in the institutional culture, the Tatmadaw will be wary of negotiating with the rebels. In the near term, further bilateral government-rebel peace deals are more likely than a nationwide deal. The opposition National League for Democracy will try to avoid dealing publically with Kokang if possible.

Myanmar Panglong meeting will be modest success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Adequate Response ◽  
National League ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's Panglong conference, beginning on August 31. Significance Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government will convene the '21st Century Panglong' peace conference on August 31; today, government, political party and ethnic representatives are reviewing the political dialogue framework for the conference and seeking to finalise agreements, while yesterday a Panglong convening committee was assembled. Billed as the next step in Myanmar's national reconciliation and peace process, the name invokes the 1947 Panglong conference. However, critical questions remain over the 2016 meeting's scope and attendees, and whether it will provide an adequate response to Myanmar's protracted civil conflicts. Impacts A successful conference would bolster the government politically, and encourage international donors and investors. Excluding civil society groups from future conferences could exacerbate frictions. The talks will likely reveal tough remaining obstacles to a true nation-wide ceasefire, even if non-signatory EAGs are included. Chinese influence over the peace process will be a sticking point, potentially igniting nationalist concern.

Rural protests could quickly snowball in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Tens of thousands of farmers and indigenous people have taken part in demonstrations since May 30 in protest at the government's economic policies. At least three people are reported to have been killed and some 200 injured in clashes with police. The protesters claim that promises made following similar protests in 2013 have not been honoured and that the government's free trade policies harm Colombian workers. Impacts While protests are unlikely to threaten the government or the peace process, they could complicate and draw out talks. In guerrilla-controlled areas, the government will strive to show it is capable of providing order and prosperity. Colombian protests will have no direct impact on TPP talks but may be an indicator of trouble ahead in countries that are party to the deal.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

Colombia’s Duque eyes presidency after rightward shift

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Democratic Politics ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rightward Shift ◽  
Presidential Primary ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Right

Significance The 4 million votes secured by Ivan Duque of the Democratic Centre (CD) in a presidential primary, held the same day, affirmed that group as the country’s leading electoral force. Right-leaning parties are, at best, ambivalent about the country’s peace processes, but the strengthening of their position was not sufficiently conclusive to suggest a reversal of the peace process under the next Congress. Impacts No significant shift away from Colombia’s pro-investment policies is likely in 2018. The FARC’s poor election results will provide little incentive for the ELN to follow them down the path of democratic politics. The crisis in neighbouring Venezuela, and the wave of migrants that it has caused, are likely to push Colombian voters further to the right.

Ukraine talks will resume with glacially slow progress

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Government

Significance French President Emmanuel Macron initiated the call, signalling a determination to revive the four-party 'Normandy format' talks which had ground to a halt. Kyiv lodged a formal protest with the UN on July 21 at what it called an "intensification of Russia's aggressive actions", following an upsurge in clashes with rebel forces that left nine Ukrainian soldiers dead. Impacts Kyiv's caution on making disadvantageous concessions exposes it to external pressure to contribute more to the peace process. If the government has to make concessions on the conflict, political push-back could break up the ruling bloc and force early elections. Lack of progress in resolving the conflict will preserve but not strengthen sanctions against Russia.

Myanmar peace process could collapse post-2020

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China And India ◽  
National League

Significance The meeting, which will be the third in the process so far, has been delayed due to disagreements among ethnic minority groups, including ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Myanmar’s next general election is due in 2020, when State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will be seeking to retain control of the civilian portion of government. Impacts While ongoing violence may dissuade Western investors, China and India will see opportunity rather than risk in Myanmar. China will encourage EMAGs to negotiate peace. Myanmar military personnel will face US sanctions over attacks on Rohingya Muslims.

Extension will defer South Sudan peace deal dilemmas

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transition Period ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Guarantees

Subject Outllok for South Sudan's peace process. Significance In early May, the signatories to South Sudan’s peace deal agreed to extend the ‘pre-transition’ period (due to expire on May 12) by six months, thereby postponing the formation of a new transitional government. This averted the risk of an immediate crisis, with opposition leader Riek Machar refusing to return to government without stronger security guarantees and President Salva Kiir threatening to form a government with or without Machar. However, it has not resolved any underlying issues. Impacts Rivalries are likely to prevent a concerted opposition challenge to government actions. Calls by some activists for anti-Kiir protests, emulating neighbouring Sudan, are unlikely to transform into a sustained movement. Despite improved security, clashes will persist in some areas. Economic improvements will remain meagre.

Libyan talks have a long hard road ahead

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The Other ◽  
Rapid Progress ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Key Questions

Significance The announcement comes a day after participants in the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), which began this week, agreed a roadmap for elections to take place within 18 months. The apparent rapid progress in talks obscures the fact that key questions remain, such who will be in the transitional government that oversees elections. The forum is part of a three-pronged peace process that also includes military and economic tracks. Criticism overshadowed its opening, including complaints that the participant list is not representative, Impacts The LPDF's outcome will affect the other simultaneous tracks, military and economic. A successful process leading to fresh elections will help fill the legitimacy deficit which has long hobbled institutional progress. The LPDF is a key credibility test for the UN mission in Libya, which has struggled for years to build a viable peace process.

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