Kokang conflict will damage China-Myanmar ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Culture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
National League ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
Near Term

Subject The fallout from the violence in Kokang. Significance On February 9, fighting broke out in Kokang between Myanmar's military ('Tatmadaw') and rebel group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which fights for greater autonomy within Myanmar. Kokang, in northern Shan State, borders China. Most Kokang people are ethnic Chinese and many speak Mandarin. Myanmar's government faces two problems: a peace process with ethnic armed rebel groups that is now adrift, and a sudden spike in frictions with Beijing while large numbers of refugees seek sanctuary in China. Impacts Absent a change in the institutional culture, the Tatmadaw will be wary of negotiating with the rebels. In the near term, further bilateral government-rebel peace deals are more likely than a nationwide deal. The opposition National League for Democracy will try to avoid dealing publically with Kokang if possible.

Myanmar Panglong meeting will be modest success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Adequate Response ◽  
National League ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's Panglong conference, beginning on August 31. Significance Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government will convene the '21st Century Panglong' peace conference on August 31; today, government, political party and ethnic representatives are reviewing the political dialogue framework for the conference and seeking to finalise agreements, while yesterday a Panglong convening committee was assembled. Billed as the next step in Myanmar's national reconciliation and peace process, the name invokes the 1947 Panglong conference. However, critical questions remain over the 2016 meeting's scope and attendees, and whether it will provide an adequate response to Myanmar's protracted civil conflicts. Impacts A successful conference would bolster the government politically, and encourage international donors and investors. Excluding civil society groups from future conferences could exacerbate frictions. The talks will likely reveal tough remaining obstacles to a true nation-wide ceasefire, even if non-signatory EAGs are included. Chinese influence over the peace process will be a sticking point, potentially igniting nationalist concern.

Myanmar peace process could collapse post-2020

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China And India ◽  
National League

Significance The meeting, which will be the third in the process so far, has been delayed due to disagreements among ethnic minority groups, including ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Myanmar’s next general election is due in 2020, when State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will be seeking to retain control of the civilian portion of government. Impacts While ongoing violence may dissuade Western investors, China and India will see opportunity rather than risk in Myanmar. China will encourage EMAGs to negotiate peace. Myanmar military personnel will face US sanctions over attacks on Rohingya Muslims.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

Myanmar peace conference a risk to government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Development Policy ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
Peace And Development

Subject Peace process and development policy update. Significance The new government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) is moving to address long-standing ethnic and religious fissures. A conference planned for July is intended to advance the peace process with armed ethnic minority groups (AEMGs). On May 30, President Htin Kyaw signed into existence the Central Committee for Implementation of Peace and Development in Rakhine State. The committee includes all government ministers and several Rakhine officials, and is chaired by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Impacts A rushed, non-inclusive conference could set back the peace process. Protests by religious conservatives are likely near administrative centres. Investors in development-related projects in ethnic areas face heightened scrutiny. The leadership of the Rakhine committee will not inspire international confidence, given the Rohingya controversy.

Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Myanmar six-party talks to boost ethnic peace process

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Steering Committee ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leadership Crisis ◽  
Dialogue Process ◽  
National League

Subject The outlook for subsequent rounds of six-party talks. Significance Six-party talks covering constitutional reform, the November national legislative elections and ongoing negotiations between the central government and armed ethnic groups were held on April 10. Despite the attendees' divergent agendas, this new dialogue process represents a steering committee for Myanmar's evolving political establishment. Impacts The constitutional reform referendum will probably be delayed. A leadership crisis within the National League for Democracy could follow the 2015 polls. Western support is likely to shift somewhat from Suu Kyi towards the wider electoral process.

Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Subject Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government. Significance Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process. Impacts Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats. To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas. The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

Sudan’s partial peace deal builds positive momentum

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Military ◽  
Significant Milestone

Significance The deal represents a significant milestone in both the peace process and the wider transition. However, it remains only a partial peace, given the absence of the main armed groups in Darfur (the Sudan Liberation Movement/Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM/AW)) and the ‘Two Areas’ (the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North/Abdel Aziz al-Hilu (SPLM-N/al-Hilu)). Impacts The prime minister may seek a more direct role in finalising the peace process, at the expense of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’. Integration of rebel groups will expand the bloated military, already a major drain on limited resources. Sharing of natural resource revenues may spur tensions with the military, whose affiliated companies control major mines in conflict areas.

Warmer China-Myanmar ties may reshape local politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
Corporate Social

Significance Wang is the first senior foreign official to visit Myanmar following the installation of the new government on March 30, dominated by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD). The government faces an early test in easing relations with China that have been strained since 2011. Impacts Stronger ties with Naypyidaw will strengthen China's Asia-Pacific position, as the US presidency nears transition. The government will likely demand enhanced corporate social responsibility from Chinese and other extractives investors. The government will need Chinese support to advance Myanmar's peace process. However, the government will also need to assuage Myanmar military's concern about Beijing's influence.

Myanmar will ignore West and push on towards new polls

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Military ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The army detained Suu Kyi and other National League for Democracy (NLD) officials on February 1, claiming fraud in the November 8 general election in which the NLD increased its parliamentary majority. It has declared a one-year state of emergency and promises to hold fresh polls thereafter. Impacts The coup will slow the progress of the peace process designed to end conflicts between the military and ethnically based armed groups. Naypyidaw is even less likely than before to cooperate with Dhaka over repatriating Rohingya refugees residing in Bangladeshi camps. Public opposition to the military regime will spike if the authorities fail to maintain a downward trend in COVID-19 infections.

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