Colombia’s Duque eyes presidency after rightward shift

Significance The 4 million votes secured by Ivan Duque of the Democratic Centre (CD) in a presidential primary, held the same day, affirmed that group as the country’s leading electoral force. Right-leaning parties are, at best, ambivalent about the country’s peace processes, but the strengthening of their position was not sufficiently conclusive to suggest a reversal of the peace process under the next Congress. Impacts No significant shift away from Colombia’s pro-investment policies is likely in 2018. The FARC’s poor election results will provide little incentive for the ELN to follow them down the path of democratic politics. The crisis in neighbouring Venezuela, and the wave of migrants that it has caused, are likely to push Colombian voters further to the right.

Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.


Significance The recent state elections demonstrate that German voting patterns are becoming increasingly flexible. The right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) achieved double-digit results in all three elections and became the second-strongest party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The election results also increase the intra-party pressure on Merkel and highlight the tensions within the coalition, but at the moment, neither a radical change in Merkel's refugee policies nor early federal elections seem likely. Impacts In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Greens will form a coalition government with the weakened CDU. In Rhineland-Palatinate, a 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Liberal Democrats and Greens) is the most likely outcome. In Saxony-Anhalt, a 'Kenya coalition' (CDU, SPD and Greens) is the only politically feasible option. In two states a CDU-SPD coalition would not have a sufficient majority to govern, which is a first in the Federal Republic's history.


Subject Rightward shift of the Supreme Court. Significance The Supreme Court has historically checked political power through judicial review. However, under the present government its independence has been challenged by a battle with Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked of the ultra-nationalist Jewish Home party. The right-wing-dominated Knesset (parliament) has in recent months passed several controversial laws affecting the rights of Arab Israelis and Palestinians, which are likely to come before the court. Impacts Expanded Israeli control over the West Bank would reduce the likelihood of a political agreement with the Palestinians. Unchecked pro-settler legislation could create diplomatic crises with partners in Europe and potentially with the Trump administration. Conservative legislation could also constrain minority and individual rights, over such issues as gender, sexuality and freedom of religion. Ultra-nationalist legislation will further alienate US Jewish supporters who believe it undermines democracy in Israel.


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 343
Author(s):  
MA. Bilbil Kastrati

The conflicts of the past three decades have shown that the major problems which peace processes face are the spoilers. Spoilers are warring parties and their leaders who believe that peaceful settlement of disputes threatens their interests, power and their reputation; therefore, they use all means to undermine or completely spoil the process. Spoilers of peace processes can be inside or outside of the process and are characterized as limited, greedy or total spoilers. Their motives for spoiling can be different, such as: political, financial, ethnic, security, etc. Furthermore, it is important to emphasise that spoilers are not only rebels and insurgents, but can often be governments, diasporas, warlords, private military companies, etc.In order to counteract the spoilers, the international community has adopted and implemented three methods: inducement, socialization and coercion. Often all three methods are used to convince the spoilers to negotiate, accept and implement peace agreements. Hence, this paper will examine the methods used to deal with peace process spoilers through an assessment of the strategies employed, impact, success and failures.This paper will also argue that the success or failure of the peace process depends on the method(s) used to deal with spoilers. If the right method is chosen, with a persistent engagement of the international community, the peace process will be successful; on the contrary, if they fail to do so, the consequences will be devastating. 


Significance The results show a waning interest in the right-wing populist Freedom Party (PVV), which until mid-February was leading the polls. The PVV had been an unlikely candidate to enter government -- even if it had emerged as the strongest party -- as no other political party was willing to cooperate with it. However, the significance of the vote lies in the fact that it could reflect wider trends in Europe ahead of the French and German elections taking place later this year. Impacts The election provided a significant boost to the Green Left Party with its up-and-coming young leader Jesse Klaver. The PvdA, Rutte's coalition partner, alienated voters with its support for unpopular austerity measures. Senior party members have come forward suggesting that the PvdA should dissolve. Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem may have to stand down as Eurogroup president if his PvdA is not involved in the new coalition. The election results have been welcomed by most European countries and are widely regarded as an anti-populist pro-Europe stance.


Subject Aftermath of June 3 elections. Significance The right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) has won the parliamentary elections, eclipsing its nearest rival, the List of Marjan Sarec (LMS). However, with just 25 seats in Slovenia’s 90-member parliament, the SDS falls far short of a majority. If it cannot form a government, an LMS-led coalition is possible. Impacts An SDS-led rejectionist government would create uncertainty for investors who must be prepared for a significant shift in economic policy. It would probably ramp up the border dispute with Croatia, starting with legal action on Zagreb’s non-compliance with an arbitration ruling. The emergence of yet another Eurosceptic government in a rebellious corner of Europe bodes ill for EU cohesion. An SDS-led government would further rearrange party politics, involving the probable collapse of the inchoate and unstructured LMS.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-341
Author(s):  
Rifki Ismal ◽  
Nurul Izzati Septiana

Purpose The demand for Saudi Arabian real (SAR) is very high in the pilgrimage (hajj) season while the authority, unfortunately, does not hedge the hajj funds. As such, the hajj funds are potentially exposed to exchange rate risk, which can impact the value of hajj funds and generate extra cost to the pilgrims. The purpose of this paper is to conduct simulations of Islamic hedging for pilgrimage funds to: mitigate and minimize exchange rate risk, identify and recommend the ideal time, amount and tenors of Islamic hedging for hajj funds, estimate cost saving by pursuing Islamic hedging and propose technical and general recommendations for the authority. Design/methodology/approach Forward transaction mechanism is adopted to compute Islamic forward between SAR and Rupiah (Indonesian currency) or IDR. Findings – based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Findings Based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Research limitations/implications The research suggests the authority to (and not to) hedge the hajj fund, depending on economic conditions and market indicators. Even though the assessment is for the Indonesian case, other countries maintaining hajj funds might also learn from this paper. Originality/value To the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first paper in Indonesia that attempts to simulate the optimal hedging of hajj funds.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 376
Author(s):  
Carmelo Mario Vicario ◽  
Gabriella Martino ◽  
Alex Marcuzzo ◽  
Giuseppe Craparo

Neuroscience research links alexithymia, the difficulty in identifying and describing feelings and emotions, with left hemisphere dominance and/or right hemisphere deficit. To provide behavioral evidence for this neuroscientific hypothesis, we explored the relationship between alexithymia and performance in a line bisection task, a standard method for evaluating visuospatial processing in relation to right hemisphere functioning. We enrolled 222 healthy participants who completed a version of the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), which measures alexithymia, and were asked to mark (bisect) the center of a 10-cm horizontal segment. The results document a significant rightward shift in the center of the line in participants with borderline and manifest alexithymia compared with non-alexithymic individuals. The higher the TAS-20 score, the greater the rightward shift in the line bisection task. This finding supports the right hemisphere deficit hypothesis in alexithymia and suggests that visuospatial abnormalities may be an important component of this mental condition.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia Moura e Sá ◽  
Catarina Frade ◽  
Fernanda Jesus ◽  
Mónica Lopes ◽  
Teresa Maneca Lima ◽  
...  

PurposeWicked problems require collaborative innovation approaches. Understanding the problem from the users' perspective is essential. Based on a complex and ill-defined case, the purpose of the current paper is to identify some critical success factors in defining the “right problem” to be addressed.Design/methodology/approachAn empirical research study was carried out in a low-density municipality (case study). Extensive data were collected from official databases, individual semi-structured interviews and a focus group involving citizens, local authorities, civil servants and other relevant stakeholders.FindingsAs defined by the central government, the problem to be addressed by the research team was to identify which justice services should be made available locally to a small- and low-density community. The problem was initially formulated using top-down reasoning. In-depth contact with citizens and key local players revealed that the lack of justice services was not “the issue” for that community. Mobility constraints and the shortage of economic opportunities had a considerable impact on the lack of demand for justice services. By using a bottom-up perspective, it was possible to reframe the problem to be addressed and suggest a new concept to be tested at later stages.Social implicationsThe approach followed called attention to the importance of listening to citizens and local organisations with a profound knowledge of the territory to effectively identify and circumscribe a local problem in the justice field.Originality/valueThe paper highlights the limitations of traditional rational problem-solving approaches and contributes to expanding the voice-of-the-customer principle showing how it can lead to a substantially new definition of the problem to be addressed.


1978 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 622-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Sogg ◽  
Sarah S. Donaldson ◽  
Craig H. Yorke

✓ A 9-year-old schoolgirl received 6007 rads to the suprasellar region for craniopharyngioma. Five years later, a malignant astrocytoma developed in the right temporal lobe. We cite clinical and experimental evidence to support our suspicion that the glioma may have been induced by radiation.


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