Myanmar Panglong meeting will be modest success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Adequate Response ◽  
National League ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's Panglong conference, beginning on August 31. Significance Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government will convene the '21st Century Panglong' peace conference on August 31; today, government, political party and ethnic representatives are reviewing the political dialogue framework for the conference and seeking to finalise agreements, while yesterday a Panglong convening committee was assembled. Billed as the next step in Myanmar's national reconciliation and peace process, the name invokes the 1947 Panglong conference. However, critical questions remain over the 2016 meeting's scope and attendees, and whether it will provide an adequate response to Myanmar's protracted civil conflicts. Impacts A successful conference would bolster the government politically, and encourage international donors and investors. Excluding civil society groups from future conferences could exacerbate frictions. The talks will likely reveal tough remaining obstacles to a true nation-wide ceasefire, even if non-signatory EAGs are included. Chinese influence over the peace process will be a sticking point, potentially igniting nationalist concern.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Subject Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government. Significance Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process. Impacts Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats. To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas. The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

Warmer China-Myanmar ties may reshape local politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
Corporate Social

Significance Wang is the first senior foreign official to visit Myanmar following the installation of the new government on March 30, dominated by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD). The government faces an early test in easing relations with China that have been strained since 2011. Impacts Stronger ties with Naypyidaw will strengthen China's Asia-Pacific position, as the US presidency nears transition. The government will likely demand enhanced corporate social responsibility from Chinese and other extractives investors. The government will need Chinese support to advance Myanmar's peace process. However, the government will also need to assuage Myanmar military's concern about Beijing's influence.

Zambia’s Patriotic Front faces major election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Significance The country’s economy has been in decline for some time, and the government is increasingly plagued by corruption scandals. Impacts A contested election will likely further undermine the increasingly fraught relationship between Zambia and international donors. New government borrowing to fund populist policies will further complicate economic reform prospects. The replacement of recently deceased Chief Justice Irene Mambilima may become politicised given the courts’ role in resolving poll disputes.

Kokang conflict will damage China-Myanmar ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Culture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
National League ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
Near Term

Subject The fallout from the violence in Kokang. Significance On February 9, fighting broke out in Kokang between Myanmar's military ('Tatmadaw') and rebel group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which fights for greater autonomy within Myanmar. Kokang, in northern Shan State, borders China. Most Kokang people are ethnic Chinese and many speak Mandarin. Myanmar's government faces two problems: a peace process with ethnic armed rebel groups that is now adrift, and a sudden spike in frictions with Beijing while large numbers of refugees seek sanctuary in China. Impacts Absent a change in the institutional culture, the Tatmadaw will be wary of negotiating with the rebels. In the near term, further bilateral government-rebel peace deals are more likely than a nationwide deal. The opposition National League for Democracy will try to avoid dealing publically with Kokang if possible.

Colombia's future rests on justice talks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Similar Process ◽  
Peace Accord ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject As Colombia's peace talks approach their apparent end date, justice issues are a major sticking point. Significance With barely three months to go until the deadline for a final peace accord, negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) need to overcome an impasse on the issue of transitional justice. In August, President Juan Manuel Santos appointed an ad hoc team of six lawyers (three selected by each side) to break the deadlock that had persisted for a year. On September 23, a ten-point communique was revealed in Havana as a basis for further negotiations. Impacts Should the deadlock continue into 2016, Santos's public approval ratings are likely to suffer significantly. The sensitive nature of truth and justice negotiations will see opposition figures attempt to use the issue to discredit the government. The successful conclusion of peace talks could pave the way for a similar process with the ELN.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Rural protests could quickly snowball in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Tens of thousands of farmers and indigenous people have taken part in demonstrations since May 30 in protest at the government's economic policies. At least three people are reported to have been killed and some 200 injured in clashes with police. The protesters claim that promises made following similar protests in 2013 have not been honoured and that the government's free trade policies harm Colombian workers. Impacts While protests are unlikely to threaten the government or the peace process, they could complicate and draw out talks. In guerrilla-controlled areas, the government will strive to show it is capable of providing order and prosperity. Colombian protests will have no direct impact on TPP talks but may be an indicator of trouble ahead in countries that are party to the deal.

Ukraine talks will resume with glacially slow progress

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Government

Significance French President Emmanuel Macron initiated the call, signalling a determination to revive the four-party 'Normandy format' talks which had ground to a halt. Kyiv lodged a formal protest with the UN on July 21 at what it called an "intensification of Russia's aggressive actions", following an upsurge in clashes with rebel forces that left nine Ukrainian soldiers dead. Impacts Kyiv's caution on making disadvantageous concessions exposes it to external pressure to contribute more to the peace process. If the government has to make concessions on the conflict, political push-back could break up the ruling bloc and force early elections. Lack of progress in resolving the conflict will preserve but not strengthen sanctions against Russia.

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