Southern Europe will pursue close relations with China

Significance The document marks a sharpening in the EU’s position towards China. In the paper, the EU puts forward ten points designed to balance EU-China relations, including greater protection of European industries from Chinese investment. Southern European countries will treat the paper with caution as they look to preserve strong economic ties with China. Impacts The EU and United States will find more common ground on their policies towards China once President Donald Trump has left office. European governments will become more interventionist on international mergers of ‘national champion’ firms. UK crackdown on Chinese technology will inhibit prospects of a future UK-China free trade agreement.

Subject Mexico-EU trade talks Significance Talks on modernising the Mexico-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have gained urgency since the election of US President Donald Trump as the prospect of an end to free trade within North America forces Mexican officials to get serious about diversifying relations. While negotiators hope to seal a new EU deal by the end of the year, many issues are yet to be addressed and renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is absorbing bureaucratic capacity. Impacts Anti-American sentiment stemming from Washington’s hostility could favour European firms and investors in Mexico. The rush to conclude agreements risks bad deals and political blowback from Mexico’s opposition. Transportation costs and connectivity will ultimately matter more for Mexican diversification than already low tariffs.


Significance The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers. Impacts The deal will make it slightly easier to reach a UK-US free trade agreement, though strong divisions remain. The strict conditionality associated with the FTA suggests Euroscepticism will remain an important feature of UK politics. The process and costs associated with Brexit makes it less likely that Eurosceptic member states will attempt to leave the EU.


Significance The two sides have long been dialogue partners. They are widely expected to step up negotiations over an inter-regional free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts ASEAN and the EU will collaborate more over COVID-19 recovery efforts, including development and supply of vaccines. The two sides will expedite talks on an air transport agreement to boost connectivity. Non-traditional security issues such as climate change will be key areas of focus in bilateral consultations.


Significance The country's vote to leave the EU has added momentum to a realignment of UK economic and foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region underway for some years. Parliamentarian Richard Graham, a prime ministerial trade envoy, visited Manila in late August to explore the prospects for closer ties, including a Philippines-UK free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts China will tolerate greater Philippine-UK engagement if London stays out of South China Sea disputes. If controversy over Duterte's crime crackdown grows, May might face domestic political pressures to keep Manila at arm's length for now. Duterte's abrasive political style may deter fresh investment pledges. Closer defence ties with Manila would aid improvements in the United Kingdom's ties with ASEAN and its other members.


Subject ASEAN-Hong Kong free trade deal prospects. Significance ASEAN expects to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) with Hong Kong at its leaders' summit in November, officials confirmed during a visit by Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam to Singapore and Thailand earlier this month. Impacts ASEAN will be able to access more development funds, especially for regional infrastructure. Despite prospects for enhanced trade, Hong Kong appears to have most to gain from closer economic ties. Hong Kong could find itself caught between its ASEAN trade ambitions and China’s strategic interests, which see ASEAN spats.


Significance For Germany and France, an important component of this is the treatment of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, prospects for an EU-wide response appear to divide the bloc, with many countries rejecting the principle of regulation by the European Commission. Impacts A Commission proposal on investment scrutiny will test the limits of Chinese influence and EU unity. If any move on investment scrutiny is seen as singling out China, it could undermine the country’s economic relationship with the EU. This could stall progress on a bilateral investment treaty and any free trade agreement that might follow. Successful resolution of EU-Chinese tensions could open up a more coherent and reciprocal approach to FDI scrutiny and control.


Subject Problems facing the Thai government. Significance Thailand’s government, led by a party with ties to the junta that ruled until July, is facing political and economic headwinds as it tries to establish civilian rule. The king is consolidating his authority, political opponents are pushing back on the ruling coalition and exports are weakening, raising quandaries for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Impacts A worsening trade outlook will prompt the government to step up efforts to secure a free trade agreement with the EU. Thailand and the United States will take time to strengthen bilateral ties, nominally mended when Prayut visited Washington in 2017. The army units under the king’s direct control could provide cover for rival factions to Prayut’s in the event of another military coup.


Author(s):  
Christina Plank

The non-signing of the association and free trade agreement with the EU by the former Ukrainian president Victor Janukovych triggered the on-going conflict in the Ukraine. By offering a deepening of the political and economic relations with the West, the EU did not consider Russia’s interests in the post-Soviet region. Drawing on Harvey, the article argues that within this process the territorial-geopolitical logic prevails over the capitalist logic of power. Economic interests of the European Union exist, but they are not sufficient to explain the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Rather, the conflict can be understood as a non-intentional consequence of the EU’s politics concernging the Ukraine. In particular, three sectors – finance, energy and agriculture – are relevant for the EU in Ukraine. However, up to now the European capital factions are facing difficulties in asserting their interests in these sectors due to strong oligarchic structures in the country. Together with the territorial-geopolitical logic of power they have to be taken into account to explain the conflict. Ultimately, the armed conflict in the Eastern Ukraine endangers the EU’s economic ties with Russia. These are more important for the EU than its economic relations with Ukraine. As a result, the territorial-geopolitical logic unfolds as opposed to the capitalist logic in the conflict.


Subject India-Europe ties. Significance Negotiations between India and the EU for a free-trade agreement (FTA) are to recommence in January. These talks began in 2007 and have been paused many times -- most recently in August 2015, over the EU's banning of 700 Indian generic drugs. Impacts India's rivalry with Pakistan is the greatest impediment to South Asian economic cooperation. European partners risk alienating voters by appearing soft on immigration. India will not allow its European links to erode other key alliances, especially its defence ties with Russia.


Subject FTA impact on business. Significance London and Brussels will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) in February. While an FTA is far preferable to trading without one in place, it will pose significant bureaucratic and financial costs for business. Impacts The first key obstacle is deciding on the sequencing of the talks, with London anxious to not allow the EU to dictate the timetable again. London will hope that this phase of talks exposes EU divisions, which could put pressure on Brussels to compromise on important issues. Brexit uncertainty means businesses will continue delaying significant investment decisions, which will dampen growth in 2020.


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