Weak economy compounds Moldovan political instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Substantial Influence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
The Government

Significance Economic weakness plus popular resentment of an elite seen as corrupt creates potential for mass demonstrations by pro- and anti-EU factions. Russia's importance as an economic partner is waning but it retains substantial influence through sympathetic political parties. A presidential election this October will be coloured by the unresolved bank fraud scandal, which has created a gulf between the political establishment and the electorate. Impacts Mainstream politicians will be find it hard to shake off perceived links to corruption. Prominent figures, whether oligarchs or pro-Russian politicians, may therefore avoid standing as presidential candidates. Lack of systemic reforms is a constraint on Moldova's ability to engage with EU economies. Domestic turmoil makes the government less likely to challenge Transnistria, which will remain a conduit for Russian pressure.

Sri Lanka will struggle to escape its debt trap

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Outstanding Debt ◽  
The Government

Subject Sri Lanka's debt problem. Significance Sri Lanka late last month said it was planning to issue international sovereign bonds (ISBs) worth some 1.5 billion dollars, helping to repay loans soon to mature. The country’s gross outstanding debt stock rose to nearly 70% of GDP in 2018 from just under 40% in 2008. Impacts Debates around the presidential election due later this year will likely be dominated by security concerns rather than the economy. Political instability caused by rifts within the government will damage investor confidence in the country. Sri Lanka will step up efforts to attract tourists, hoping to sustain a key source of foreign exchange earnings.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Chile coalition crisis hints at new Pinera presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Pole Position ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Consistent Support ◽  
Actual Size

Significance Albeit expected, that defeat has widened divisions within its centre-left coalition and between the administration and its political parties. The election results put the centre-right opposition in the pole position to win the next presidential election in November 2017. Impacts The impact of the election outcome on the mood in government parties far exceeds the actual size of their defeat. High abstention is a criticism of both main coalitions and suggests potentially fertile ground for populism. Without consistent support from its own parties, it will be difficult for the government to pass promised reforms.

Mali peace is slipping away

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Question

Significance However, opposition political parties and former rebels, most prominently northern Mali’s main ex-rebel bloc, the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA), refuse to participate in the dialogue. Substantial tensions between the government and CMA present worrying signals about the trajectory of Mali's peace process. Impacts Rising insecurity will prompt neighbouring states to apply greater pressure on Bamako to resolve the situation in northern Mali. Jihadist leader Iyad ag Ghali will be central to resolving the political question in the north. France’s opposition to talks with jihadists may delay or preclude altogether such an option.

Reconciling access to information and political party funding in Malawi: a comparative analysis of legislation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Mapulanga ◽  
Dorothy Doreen Eneya ◽  
Diston Store Chiweza
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Resource Capacity ◽  
The Government ◽  
Party Funding

Purpose The purpose of this paper was to assess the similarities and differences between the Political Parties and the Access to Information Acts in Malawi. While political parties are largely funded by donations that are frequently kept as a secret, the Access to Information Act does not include political party funding among the categories of non-disclosed information. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on the qualitative content analysis of the legislation in Malawi. Content analysis of the two pieces of legislation was adopted. This paper is a review of the literature and an examination of Malawi's Political Parties and Access to Information Acts. The document study was supplemented by a review of related literature on the two legislations. Findings The Political Parties Act prohibits the government, ministries and departments from directly or indirectly funding political parties. The Access to Information Act to ensure information generated by Malawi government ministries, departments and agencies is readily made available by the citizens when needed or requested. The Access to Information Act does not exempt political parties from disclosing their funding sources. The two acts work in tandem to promote accountability and transparency in political party funding and sources. Research limitations/implications This study is limited to Malawi's Political Parties and Access to Information Acts. Only the South African related acts have informed the paper. However, several acts within developing countries would have greatly aided the paper. Practical implications The implementation of the two pieces of legislation has implications for the balance between disclosure and non-disclosure of political party funding. Oversight functions and credible human resource capacity are needed in both political parties and government enforcement institutions. Social implications Oversight functions by the Administrator-General through the Registrar of Political Parties and the Malawi Human Rights Commission are key to the implementation of Malawi's Political Parties and Access to Information Acts, respectively. Proper enforcement of the oversight functions is expected to result in an open, transparent and accountable Malawian society. Originality/value Various players are needed in the accountability chain to protect disclosure and non-disclosure of information. Very little information is known on the powers, functions and duties of office bearers capable of enforcing legislation to keep political parties' funding clean. Little is known on how the citizens can access information regarding political parties funding.

The political future of Colombia's FARC is bleak

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Civilian Life ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Shifts ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Transition To Civilian Life ◽  
The Government

Significance The meeting has been markedly less militaristic than previous gatherings, with unarmed FARC leaders in civilian clothes, addressing the group on demobilisation and their transition towards becoming a peaceful political movement. It has also been unusually open, with representatives from both the government and the international press being granted unprecedented access. Impacts While FARC leaders will have a quick transition to civilian life, mid- and low-ranking members will struggle. Power shifts in rural, former FARC-dominated areas could be bloody. In the long term, FARC fracturing and political instability in Venezuela could give rise to new cross-border criminal organisations.

Iraq's Abadi may consolidate power in reform battle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
State Group ◽  
Government Reforms

Subject Government reforms. Significance Although some of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's reform programme is purely aspirational and unlikely to be implemented, the measures already taken constitute an unprecedented downsizing of Iraqi government in the post-2003 era. The reforms were well received initially by the political parties, partly due to support from the Shia clergy. However, increasingly, critical voices are making themselves heard, not least from hardliners within Abadi's own Shia coalition. Impacts Failure of Abadi's reform programme could increase political instability in Baghdad, harming efforts to defeat Islamic State group (ISG). Reforms may damage ties with Tehran, with Iran fearing that Abadi is using the process to develop stronger autonomy from it. If the reforms succeed, this may increase Sunni Arab confidence in Abadi as a potential buffer against pro-Iranian forces. Impact on government efficiency and the economy will be limited given other major challenges, notably low oil prices.

Guinea-Bissau deadlock will threaten fragile growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Court Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance A month previously, the ECOWAS had reiterated its displeasure over the lack of progress in resolving the ongoing political impasse and issued an ultimatum to political actors to implement the 2016 Conakry Agreement or face sanctions. The UN has also threatened to initiate punitive measures if the political situation deteriorates further between President Jose Mario Vaz and his ruling party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Impacts Given the risk of a military coup, ECOWAS is likely to retain some of its troops until after the 2018 legislative election. A court action by two banks against the government could endanger IMF loans and donors' budgetary support. Ongoing political instability could lead to increased activities by organised criminal and terrorist networks.

Earthquakes will hit Mexico’s 2018 election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Political System ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Central Mexico ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
High Level

Significance Two major earthquakes hit southern and central Mexico on September 7 and 19, killing at least 340 people and damaging thousands of buildings. The disaster has sparked a public backlash against the political system (in particular the high level of public financing for political parties) which could see the government review its 2018 budget proposals, published on September 8. Impacts The fiscal cost, though substantial, should not dent Mexico's investment grade ratings. Any popularity boost Pena Nieto might receive due to the government’s swift disaster response will be fleeting. The army’s performance in the rescue efforts should help improve its tarnished image. Any more disasters, whether earthquakes, hurricanes or volcanic eruptions could push state funds and logistical capacity to breaking point.

COVID-19 colours Trinidad and Tobago election outlook

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Movement ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government

Significance The two main political parties, the governing People’s National Movement (PNM) and the opposition United National Congress (UNC) are jockeying for position, while internal divisions and efforts by smaller parties to make a breakthrough are further muddying the political waters. Impacts The number of small parties will make the election outcome more uncertain, with 19 parties and 150 candidates participating. The short-term ‘bounce’ enjoyed by the government owing to its COVID-19 response may favour the PNM. The outlook for both crime and economic recovery looks uncertain whatever the election outcome.

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