Russia devises bespoke solutions to Caucasus crises

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Witch Hunt

Subject New leadership in Ingushetia. Significance The new interim leader of Ingushetia, Mahmud-Ali Kalimatov, sacked seven of his predecessor's advisers on July 3, in an early move to establish his authority. Yunus-Bek Yevkurov's departure after more than a decade in charge of Ingushetia creates another challenge for the Kremlin in managing the complex and sometimes volatile North Caucasus. Moscow moved deliberately and waited for relative calm in Ingushetia before acting. Inadequate governance is a problem across Russia but can be explosive in the North Caucasian context. Impacts The appointment of ethnic Russian Mikhail Korobkov as Ingush interior minister is intended to enhance Moscow's control. Ingushetia is likely to see anti-corruption arrests (the Russian narrative) or a witch-hunt of Yevkurov's relatives (the Ingush reading). In another long-standing border dispute, the North Ossetian leadership is refusing to negotiate with Ingushetia.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

Violence threatens Russian stability plan for Dagestan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
National Guard ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Militant Groups

Subject Russian subsidies as a way of pacifying Dagestan. Significance Moscow's policy of subsidising the North Caucasus is designed to starve Islamic militant groups of recruits and funding by reducing unemployment and curbing the shadow economy. Dagestan's ethnic complexity and long-standing militant presence make it a particular flashpoint. Its leader has identified economic progress as the best way of countering insurgent activity, but a recent spate of attacks has shown the limits of this strategy. Impacts Police and military components of the new National Guard are likely to be deployed to support Dagestan's police. Budget cuts may prompt Moscow to rethink its strategy of injecting funds into Dagestan, especially as attacks continue. Other regions of the Russian Federation will argue that they too deserve higher funding from Moscow.

Russian leaders cannot let Chechnya win debt deal

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Power ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Legal Position

Significance The write-off looks like a ploy to dispel Chechen resentment and suggests President Ramzan Kadyrov is running out of ways of maintaining calm -- the function for which the Kremlin keeps him in power. Russia's prosecution service has effectively backed Gazprom's legal position, indicating which way the dispute will be resolved. Impacts Kadyrov will survive this row but cannot go on creating problems for the Kremlin, which has domestic and foreign policy matters to manage. The arrest of Gazprom Mezhregiongaz aide Raul Arashukov will raise more questions about gas and political power in the North Caucasus. After gaining the upper hand, Chechen security forces are again facing increasing clashes with Islamic militants, judging by 2018 figures.

Islamic State on the wane in Russian North Caucasus

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian North ◽  
History Of

Subject The evolution of North Caucasian insurgency. Significance As the Islamic State (IS) group retreats in Iraq and Syria, the North Caucasus seems an obvious place to relocate, with its history of guerrilla warfare and an IS presence. So far that has not happened. Many Caucasian fighters have been killed in the Middle East while local IS groups have been hit hard by Russian security forces. Armed Islamist groups that existed before IS are seeing a resurgence and are the main source of current security threats. Impacts IS's weakness in the Caucasus will not prevent sporadic attacks on urban centres in European Russia. Militant attacks will be an irritant and a brake on investment but are unlikely to become a major regional threat. Moscow is trying to force better governance on Dagestan and may do so elsewhere.

Russia will watch returning jihadists closely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian Soil ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group threat to Russia. Significance Russia is using arrests and violence to curb the growth of the Islamic State group (ISG), which has expanded in the North Caucasus at the expense of established domestic jihadist groups such as the Caucasus Emirate. The outflow of militants to the Middle East has contributed to relative calm in the North Caucasus, but as combatants return, some may be intent on violence. Russia's stated intention of defeating ISG on the ground in Syria could encourage reprisal attacks on Russian soil. Impacts Putin will cite domestic terrorist threats as justification for clampdowns on civil rights. The focus on security will be used to control dissent among the Crimean Tatars, who are unhappy with their new status as Russian citizens. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov will be even more indispensable as Moscow's most powerful ally in the North Caucasus.

Russia will take safest route in Ingushetia crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Leader ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Islam And Politics ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Public Campaign ◽  
Regional Leadership ◽  
Direct Elections

Subject Islam and politics in Ingushetia. Significance Rivalries in the North Caucasian republic of Ingushetia are creating political uncertainty ahead of elections in September. A long-running dispute pits the muftiate (the official Muslim body) against Ingushetia's political leader Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, whom 'establishment clerics' accuse of being too soft on Islamic radicals. A public campaign has now begun to replace indirect with direct elections for the regional leadership in September in a bid to unseat Yevkurov. Impacts Ingushetia will be high on the 'to do' list for Alexander Matoshnikov, the Kremlin's new North Caucasus overseer. Yevkurov will have to fend off accusations that his security forces have tortured and killed human rights defenders. Moscow will if possible save the Ingush muftiate from abolition to avoid setting a precedent for other Muslim areas. Ingushetia's tumultuous Muslim scene leaves little space for Islamic State.

Chechen leader campaigns for funds and re-election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The North ◽  
State Group ◽  
Unique Status

Subject Kadyrov's attacks on the Russian opposition. Significance After making a series of open threats against Russian opposition figures, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov recently claimed to have sent special forces to Syria to spy on Islamic State group (ISG) and guide Russian air strikes. Chechnya has unique status among Russia's regions and republics. In return for holding down the security situation, Kadyrov controls armed forces not subordinated to Moscow, introduces rules that would be unlawful elsewhere and enjoys impunity for numerous human rights abuses attributed to his men. Impacts Kadyrov will try to build a reputation as zealous defender of Russia against domestic and foreign enemies. While portraying himself as Moscow's indispensable ally in the North Caucasus, Kadyrov will not seek alliances with neighbouring regions. Further outspoken comments will alarm national and regional elites in Russia, but will not bring censure from Putin.

Russia trials new governance model for Dagestan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Power ◽  
New Governance ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Power Networks ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Governance Model ◽  
Personal Connections ◽  
Chief Prosecutor

Significance Vasilyev said he was appointing a new chief prosecutor and high-court judges, as people were crying out for justice. Through him, Moscow is strengthening its direct control of Dagestan, the most populous region in the North Caucasus with a reputation for low-level insurgency. A former deputy interior minister, Vasilyev has no roots or personal connections in Dagestan and faces an uphill battle to wrest control from local power networks based on ethnic and clan ties. Impacts The Kremlin's willingness to install outsiders will weaken local centres of power across Russia. Local elites in the North Caucasus and other ethnic regions will note that there are limits to Moscow's tolerance. By enhancing control of Dagestan, Moscow can use it as a route to closer contacts with the South Caucasus, Iran and Turkey.

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