Sudan’s partial peace deal builds positive momentum

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Military ◽  
Significant Milestone

Significance The deal represents a significant milestone in both the peace process and the wider transition. However, it remains only a partial peace, given the absence of the main armed groups in Darfur (the Sudan Liberation Movement/Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM/AW)) and the ‘Two Areas’ (the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North/Abdel Aziz al-Hilu (SPLM-N/al-Hilu)). Impacts The prime minister may seek a more direct role in finalising the peace process, at the expense of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’. Integration of rebel groups will expand the bloated military, already a major drain on limited resources. Sharing of natural resource revenues may spur tensions with the military, whose affiliated companies control major mines in conflict areas.

Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Sudan may shift to containment of Two Areas conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Conflict resolution in Sudan's Two Areas. Significance Peace talks on February 1-4 between the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/North (SPLM/N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu failed to reach a relatively limited deal on a cessation of hostilities and provision of humanitarian assistance. While many outside observers had held high hopes for the talks, the outcome suggests that, even if conflict may remain limited for now, peace is a long way off. Impacts Hilu’s attempts to extend collaboration with other opposition forces, especially Darfur armed groups, will have little material impact. The government will use the military lull to seek outside patronage to bolster the economy and defuse austerity protests. Humanitarian conditions in the Two Areas will continue to worsen.

Myanmar will ignore West and push on towards new polls

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Military ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The army detained Suu Kyi and other National League for Democracy (NLD) officials on February 1, claiming fraud in the November 8 general election in which the NLD increased its parliamentary majority. It has declared a one-year state of emergency and promises to hold fresh polls thereafter. Impacts The coup will slow the progress of the peace process designed to end conflicts between the military and ethnically based armed groups. Naypyidaw is even less likely than before to cooperate with Dhaka over repatriating Rohingya refugees residing in Bangladeshi camps. Public opposition to the military regime will spike if the authorities fail to maintain a downward trend in COVID-19 infections.

Kokang conflict will damage China-Myanmar ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Culture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
National League ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
Near Term

Subject The fallout from the violence in Kokang. Significance On February 9, fighting broke out in Kokang between Myanmar's military ('Tatmadaw') and rebel group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which fights for greater autonomy within Myanmar. Kokang, in northern Shan State, borders China. Most Kokang people are ethnic Chinese and many speak Mandarin. Myanmar's government faces two problems: a peace process with ethnic armed rebel groups that is now adrift, and a sudden spike in frictions with Beijing while large numbers of refugees seek sanctuary in China. Impacts Absent a change in the institutional culture, the Tatmadaw will be wary of negotiating with the rebels. In the near term, further bilateral government-rebel peace deals are more likely than a nationwide deal. The opposition National League for Democracy will try to avoid dealing publically with Kokang if possible.

Sharif puts Pakistan army's India policy on back foot

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
The Military

Subject Civilian-military relationship. Significance In an apparently unprecedented and coordinated governmental move, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in parliament reportedly warned the military of growing international isolation faced by Pakistan due to its failure to suppress cross-border militant groups operating out of Pakistan. That the serious concern was shared publicly at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are rising is unusually bold for Pakistan's politicians. Such warnings have been given previously, reportedly by former President Asif Ali Zardari's government (2008-13), but always in private. Impacts Kashmir's 'jihadi infrastructure' will not be dismantled any time soon. Beijing and Washington are united in pressuring Pakistan's military to avoid escalation with India. Pakistan military's Afghan policy is unlikely to be amended.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

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