Turkish invasion of north-east Syria is a risky gambit

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
Turkish Lira

Significance The offensive has, however, exacerbated Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s already-strained relations with the United States and EU. The longer fighting persists and the farther Turkey tries to penetrate, the higher the risk that the United States in particular will impose severe sanctions and send the Turkish economy deeper into recession. Although tensions between Washington and Ankara serve Moscow's interests, Russia too has no desire to see Turkey expand the area of Syria it already controls. Impacts The incursion has fuelled nationalist fervour inside Turkey and, in the short term at least, boosted Erdogan’s previously fading popularity. Yet it will not alleviate social tensions by providing a solution to the continued presence of so many Syrian refugees. US sanctions in particular would trigger a run on the Turkish lira. The international outrage over the incursion has made the PKK less likely to launch a bombing campaign inside Turkey. Such a respite may be short lived if international condemnations of Turkey are not followed by concrete measures.

Turkey-US talks over Syrian ‘safe zone’ will drag on

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Safe Zone ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Involvement ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
The Subject

Significance The plans are currently the subject of intensive discussions with the United States. For Erdogan, the safe zone is seen as key to boosting his flagging domestic popularity and defusing growing social tensions over Syrian refugees in Turkey. The outcome will have major repercussions not only for the future of US military involvement in Syria but also for Turkish-US bilateral ties. Impacts A final deal would help protect US Kurdish allies against Turkey, damaging Erdogan’s support among ultranationalists. A threatened unilateral Turkish invasion would be hugely costly, both politically and militarily. Erdogan cannot relocate sufficient numbers of refugees to north-east Syria to defuse domestic social tensions. Although it is content to stoke US-Turkish tensions, Russia will want to avoid Turkey increasing the Syrian territory it occupies. If his ambitions are frustrated in north-east Syria, Erdogan will compensate with a domestic crackdown on Kurds.

Brazil government coalition risks unraveling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Coalition ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Government Coalition ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance On her return from the United States and Russia, President Dilma Rousseff's problems have not changed; indeed, most worsened during her absence. Brazil's economic outlook is bleaker, the governing political coalition weaker and the scope of the corruption scandal has widened. Impacts Congress will push back more strongly against spending cuts as the government's situation weakens. The PMDB as a whole is unlikely to follow Cunha's lead, at least in the short term. Lula's fate will have major longer-term implications for the future of the PT.

COVID-19 aids US-China economic ties in the short term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Institutional Architecture ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance Pragmatism will be to the forefront in the early implementation of the Phase One trade agreement between the two countries that came into effect in mid-February. At the same time, the hard line is more prominent in the Trump administration’s efforts to curtail China’s telecoms giants, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corporation. Impacts The mistrust between the United States and China during the pandemic will discourage cooperation in other spheres. China’s drive to reshape the institutional architecture of global governance and to be self-sufficient in technology will continue. Despite disliking multilateralism, Trump will engage with multilateral bodies to curb China’s efforts to reshape global governance. Any US-EU trade agreement could seek to limit China exploiting additional fraying of US-EU relations caused by the pandemic.

Outsider Ko Wen-je could become Taiwan's president

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Subject Profile of Ko Wen-je. Significance There are strong indications that Ko Wen-je, the independent mayor of Taipei, will run for election as Taiwan’s president in January 2020. Presidential hopefuls often launch their election campaigns with US trips to shore up relations with Washington, Taiwan’s key security backer; Ko will make a nine-day visit to the United States later this month. He also stated last month that he was considering forming a new political party; the single reason he would need a party of his own would be to make a run for the presidency. Impacts Ko would be a controversial and probably one-term president. Ko could have a game-changing impact in the short term but is unlikely to alter Taiwan's political landscape fundamentally in the long term. Ko would likely take a more moderate stance on China than Tsai does. Ko's outspokenness is what makes him popular, but it also makes him prone to gaffes that could ultimately undermine him.

Canada-US tariff troubles may flare more broadly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
North American ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type

Significance Canada has a temporary exemption, but Trump is calling for North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations to be completed speedily. The NAFTA and tariffs issues have, therefore, become fused, raising questions about the outlook for Canada-US foreign relations. Impacts In the short term, Canadian steel companies may benefit from reduced foreign providers’ presence in the United States. Canada’s NAFTA negotiators will not respond to the Trump team’s threat to impose tariffs. Canadian businesses will begin to migrate south to take advantage of the new and more competitive US tax regime. Canada’s efforts to diversify its foreign trade and decrease US dependence will further accelerate, but still face hurdles.

China-Japan relations will improve in the short term

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Leadership ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
China And Japan

Subject China-Japan relations. Significance Recent developments suggest that the troubled relationship between China and Japan may be improving. Both sides appear willing to establish a measure of rapprochement and restart economic cooperation. Impacts Both governments see the Trump administration's unclear and inconsistent approach to Asia as an opportunity to exercise regional leadership. If Beijing can force Pyongyang to cease behaviour that threatens Japan, this would improve its relations with Tokyo significantly. Japan's outreach to China will be more than balanced by its cooperation with the United States, India and Australia.

Arab gripes pose challenges for Syrian Kurds’ control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Dynamic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Underlying Causes

Subject Kurdish-Arab tensions in north-east Syria Significance Significant protests between April and June by Arab tribes in north-eastern Syria against Kurdish governance have subsided in north-eastern Syria after Saudi Arabia intervened to encourage de-escalation. However, the underlying causes, including grievances over economic distribution, heavy-handed security methods and a lack of Arab representation in decision-making, have not been resolved. Impacts A deterioration in cooperation between Arab tribes and the SDF may facilitate the operations of IS sleeper cells. The United States and partners will look for further ways to alleviate the concerns of Arab tribes in the area. Ankara and Damascus, which both have designs on the north-east, will play up protests to justify intervention. A mooted Turkish invasion of the border area could radically shift the power dynamic in the region.

Syria players’ next steps hinge on US withdrawal plans

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Us Military

Significance Confusion still reigns over US military policy on Syria two months after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a withdrawal. Washington is seeking a deal between Kurdish elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) -- its local allies -- and Ankara, which wants to invade areas of the north-east, but has not yet found one. Impacts Ankara will not engage in any offensive that could bring Turkish troops into conflict with US forces. If the United States leaves suddenly, the Turkish army will move quickly to seize priority targets. An emphasis on Kurdish identity by SDF elements could provoke unease among the north-east’s Arabs.

North-east Syria’s frozen conflict will erode security

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
Frozen Conflict

Significance North-east Syria is divided into three zones: Damascus-controlled areas backed by Russia and Iran, SDF-held areas backed by the United States and territory dominated by the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey. Pro-Turkish forces have in recent days been shelling government positions near Tal Abyad and the strategic M4 road near SDF-held Ain Issa. Impacts The increase in more sophisticated IS attacks does not imply a full 'resurgence' of the group along 2014 lines. Even under US pressure, the SDF would be unwilling to break ties with the rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey. Any new offensive in Idlib, in the northwest, could temporarily relieve pressure on the SDF.

Erdogan will try to tighten grip on Turkey’s military

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Agreement ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Statement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Commitments ◽  
The Government

Significance They joined a public statement warning the government against undermining a landmark international agreement governing the strategic Turkish Straits. The government’s condemnation of the statement as a veiled coup suggests President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s fragile alliance with the military’s ‘Eurasianist’ wing has ended, and shows his aversion to criticism as he sets out to redefine Turkey’s international commitments. Impacts The falling out with the Eurasianists will not fundamentally alter Turkey’s relations with Russia or China in the short term. The reaction may facilitate Erdogan’s efforts to improve ties with the United States under the Biden administration. Ankara’s ties with Russia would be severely tested if Erdogan were eventually to pull Turkey out of the Montreux convention.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document