România, Rusia și geopolitica conflictului transnistrean / Russia and the geopolitics of the Transnistrian conflict

In the context of the phenomenon of restructuring and opening of the Soviet society, respectively of the processes of “glasnost” and “perestroika” initiated by Mikhail S. Gorbachev, there will be an intensification of the national reawakening process of Bessarabian Romanians from the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic (MSSR). The new political realities in the Moldavian space generated a reaction from the conservative forces in the Soviet Union that led to the Dniester War (March 2 - July 21, 1992) which was to give rise to numerous sufferings, involving human and material losses, as well as a “frozen conflict” with implications in the geopolitics of places. Romania supported politically and diplomatically the second Romanian state in its efforts to consolidate the independence and to assert a democratic course in terms of political developments in Chisinau, as well as to resolve the serious insecurity problems at the eastern border of the Euro-Atlantic world.

Libya’s transition risks reverting to frozen conflict

Significance Moves are already underway that empower eastern actors to dominate the Libyan state. Appendages to Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) will increasingly govern the administration of eastern Libya (Cyrenaica), and the political head will be a de facto executive comprised of Saleh and key MPs. Impacts A new parallel government in the east could lead to an oil embargo from installations under its control. Saleh could empower tribal forces within local administration and foreign-contracted projects in the east. As infrastructure degrades, discontent will rise and an election delay could trigger popular protests.

Turkey’s Game Plan in Northern Syria and its Implications for the EU

Throughout the civil war, the Syrian opposition has been politically and militarily supported by several countries. At present, with its boots on the ground, Turkey is the main backer of the armed opposition in northern Syria. In the region, Ankara envisions a long-term presence which is characterized by a continuous control along the M-4 highway from Idlib in the west to the Iraqi border in the east. This will depend, however, on Turkey’s negotiations with Russia and its relations with the US. Meanwhile, the EU has limited its engagement with Ankara, by mainly focusing on the refugee crisis. Yet, divergent views and contesting interests are hindering an effective cooperation between the two on the Syrian “dossier”. In light of this, this paper argues that the EU should broaden its perspectives, while establishing permanent contact with Turkey. This necessitates the continuation of the EU’s financial support given to Ankara to host refugees; the backing of Turkey in maintaining a frozen conflict situation in Idlib; the increasement of diplomatic engagement in the provision of humanitarian aid; the backing of any effort that aims at ending the hostilities and establishing ceasefires; and the showing of empathy towards Turkish concerns on border security and terrorism. Keywords: Syrian crisis, Turkey, European Union, Northern Syria, humanitarian aid

Extended intergroup contact in frozen conflicts: Experimental evidence from Cyprus

How can ethnic reconciliation be achieved in conflict settings where populations are physically separated? We address this question by examining the role of “extended contact”—a form of indirect contact which entails learning about the contact experiences of others—in the context of Cyprus’s frozen conflict. We field a survey experiment in order to test two pathways through which extended contact works: (1) by helping build a common identity; and (2) by activating empathy. We find that our treatments are associated with greater trust in the outgroup and greater support for cross-ethnic interaction, but only among segments of the population that are initially less favorable toward reconciliation.

Escalation of Turkey-Syria conflict in Idlib in February–March 2020: based on the results of event analysis.

The subject of this research is the escalation of Turkey-Syria conflict in February–March 2020. The authors explore the prerequisites of the conflict, development stages, escalation factors, and consequences of confrontation. Description is given to the positions of the three opposing actors: Syrian-Russian, Turkish, and NATO bloc. The methodology of event analysis methodology is applied to the conflict. Emphasis is placed on the course of events reflected in charts. Use of the method of event analysis allows tracing the key vectors and their intersection: escalation – peacemaking. The author employs media reports of all parties to the conflict for demonstrating the peculiarities of escalation of the confrontation. The novelty lies in application of the method of event analysis method for assessing the specifics of escalation of the Spring Shield military operation in the conditions of modern hybrid warm, which provides different perspectives on the conflict. The conclusion is made on interaction of the actors and their impact upon escalation and peacemaking. It is established that Syria and Turkey exerted major impact upon escalation of the conflict, while Russia acted as the arbiter and the main force of moderation. Conflict potential of the Idlib crisis remains high and characterized as protracted semi-frozen conflict.

North-east Syria’s frozen conflict will erode security

Significance North-east Syria is divided into three zones: Damascus-controlled areas backed by Russia and Iran, SDF-held areas backed by the United States and territory dominated by the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey. Pro-Turkish forces have in recent days been shelling government positions near Tal Abyad and the strategic M4 road near SDF-held Ain Issa. Impacts The increase in more sophisticated IS attacks does not imply a full 'resurgence' of the group along 2014 lines. Even under US pressure, the SDF would be unwilling to break ties with the rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey. Any new offensive in Idlib, in the northwest, could temporarily relieve pressure on the SDF.

THE IMPACT OF THE ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TRANSCAUCASIA

The article deals with the frozen conflict between two sovereign States in Transcaucasia: Armenia and Azerbaijan, which can be undermined at any time due to unresolved issues, and destroy the economy not only in the region. The purpose of the article is to eliminate this conflict with possible instruments aimed at eternal peace and ensuring economic security in the region. During the research, the author used methods such as analysis, synthesis, comparison, grouping, etc. The history and causes of this conflict have been studied. In the result of the analysis, it is concluded that the influence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, today, in frozen form, has a negative impact, primarily on Azerbaijan’s economy since occupied over 20 percent of its territory, and, as a result of occupation, destroyed towns, the entire infrastructure, and there was more than one million Azerbaijanis refugees. As well as part of the territory of Azerbaijan - the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic-was blocked by Armenia. In turn, Armenia, because of its occupation policy, has also been blocked by Azerbaijan and Turkey, and thus does not allow its economy to grow. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has also become the main reason that global economic projects in the region have been implemented bypassing Armenia. Turkey is the only country in the region that does not have vested interests in the conflict, and supports and fairly protects the interests of Azerbaijan on all international political and economic platforms. Officially Russia and Iran recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, like all countries of the world, but not enough strongly supported and continue to support Armenia, since both countries have their own political and economic interests in the Caucasus. It was revealed that the fear of war at any time and the existing problems did not affect the leading position of Azerbaijan in the Transcaucasia, and this country could be one of the guarantors of economic security not only in the region, but also in the world. It is determined that if this conflict is resolved by military means, local problems can cause the creation of a world-wide war, since Azerbaijan and Armenia are members of various world organizations-military blocs. Peaceful solutions to this conflict are proposed.