Turkey-US talks over Syrian ‘safe zone’ will drag on

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Safe Zone ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Involvement ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
The Subject

Significance The plans are currently the subject of intensive discussions with the United States. For Erdogan, the safe zone is seen as key to boosting his flagging domestic popularity and defusing growing social tensions over Syrian refugees in Turkey. The outcome will have major repercussions not only for the future of US military involvement in Syria but also for Turkish-US bilateral ties. Impacts A final deal would help protect US Kurdish allies against Turkey, damaging Erdogan’s support among ultranationalists. A threatened unilateral Turkish invasion would be hugely costly, both politically and militarily. Erdogan cannot relocate sufficient numbers of refugees to north-east Syria to defuse domestic social tensions. Although it is content to stoke US-Turkish tensions, Russia will want to avoid Turkey increasing the Syrian territory it occupies. If his ambitions are frustrated in north-east Syria, Erdogan will compensate with a domestic crackdown on Kurds.

Turkish invasion of north-east Syria is a risky gambit

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
Turkish Lira

Significance The offensive has, however, exacerbated Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s already-strained relations with the United States and EU. The longer fighting persists and the farther Turkey tries to penetrate, the higher the risk that the United States in particular will impose severe sanctions and send the Turkish economy deeper into recession. Although tensions between Washington and Ankara serve Moscow's interests, Russia too has no desire to see Turkey expand the area of Syria it already controls. Impacts The incursion has fuelled nationalist fervour inside Turkey and, in the short term at least, boosted Erdogan’s previously fading popularity. Yet it will not alleviate social tensions by providing a solution to the continued presence of so many Syrian refugees. US sanctions in particular would trigger a run on the Turkish lira. The international outrage over the incursion has made the PKK less likely to launch a bombing campaign inside Turkey. Such a respite may be short lived if international condemnations of Turkey are not followed by concrete measures.

Syria players’ next steps hinge on US withdrawal plans

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Us Military

Significance Confusion still reigns over US military policy on Syria two months after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a withdrawal. Washington is seeking a deal between Kurdish elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) -- its local allies -- and Ankara, which wants to invade areas of the north-east, but has not yet found one. Impacts Ankara will not engage in any offensive that could bring Turkish troops into conflict with US forces. If the United States leaves suddenly, the Turkish army will move quickly to seize priority targets. An emphasis on Kurdish identity by SDF elements could provoke unease among the north-east’s Arabs.

Misusing historical analogies limits US policy options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Future

Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

India-Pakistan tensions will hit US military strategy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Support Fund

Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

Arab gripes pose challenges for Syrian Kurds’ control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Dynamic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Underlying Causes

Subject Kurdish-Arab tensions in north-east Syria Significance Significant protests between April and June by Arab tribes in north-eastern Syria against Kurdish governance have subsided in north-eastern Syria after Saudi Arabia intervened to encourage de-escalation. However, the underlying causes, including grievances over economic distribution, heavy-handed security methods and a lack of Arab representation in decision-making, have not been resolved. Impacts A deterioration in cooperation between Arab tribes and the SDF may facilitate the operations of IS sleeper cells. The United States and partners will look for further ways to alleviate the concerns of Arab tribes in the area. Ankara and Damascus, which both have designs on the north-east, will play up protests to justify intervention. A mooted Turkish invasion of the border area could radically shift the power dynamic in the region.

North-east Syria’s frozen conflict will erode security

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
Frozen Conflict

Significance North-east Syria is divided into three zones: Damascus-controlled areas backed by Russia and Iran, SDF-held areas backed by the United States and territory dominated by the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey. Pro-Turkish forces have in recent days been shelling government positions near Tal Abyad and the strategic M4 road near SDF-held Ain Issa. Impacts The increase in more sophisticated IS attacks does not imply a full 'resurgence' of the group along 2014 lines. Even under US pressure, the SDF would be unwilling to break ties with the rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey. Any new offensive in Idlib, in the northwest, could temporarily relieve pressure on the SDF.

United States International Drug Policy: Recent Developments and Issues

1990 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 123-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael F. Perl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Assistance ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Involvement ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Military Support ◽  
First Time ◽  
President Bush ◽  
Host Nation

In a Nationally televised speech on 5 September 1989, President Bush outlined a comprehensive anti-drug program with both domestic and international dimensions. The objectives of this strategy, which was refined and submitted to the Congress on 25 January 1990, are to reduce the amount of cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and other dangerous drugs estimated to be entering the United States (a) by 15% within 2 years and (b) by 60% within 10 years.The strategy includes a number of international components which differ greatly from policies of previous years. New to the strategy are provisions which: (1) provide — for the first time — support for limited economic assistance to major cocaineproducing countries; (2) concentrate more on disrupting the activities of the trafficking organizations [i.e. on seizing processing labs, chemicals and assets] and less on disrupting the activities of farmers [i.e., crop eradication]; (3) encourage increased levels of Andean nation military involvement in counter-narcotics operations; and (4) provide for enhanced US military support to host nation counter-narcotics forces.

Trump uncertainty impedes NATO's Afghan strategy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject NATO plans in Afghanistan. Significance The United States has nearly 7,000 troops in Afghanistan, spread across two separate but complementary missions. One is led by the US military and the other by NATO, but both are commanded by US General John W Nicholson. Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s policy looms over NATO’s plans for the country. Impacts Afghanistan’s economic decline will accelerate if US aid falls markedly. The Taliban have no incentive to talk peace at present. Direct Chinese security involvement in Afghanistan may deepen.

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