El Salvador’s new corruption body faces challenges

Subject Anti-corruption efforts. Significance On September 30, Vice-President Felix Ulloa met a UN mission in San Salvador to discuss possible support for a new anti-corruption mission. Inspired by similar bodies in neighbouring Guatemala and Honduras, the International Commission against Corruption and Impunity in El Salvador (CICIES) is intended to scrutinise political malpractice and address public concerns surrounding the political elite. The announcement of its establishment last month by President Nayib Bukele came within the first 100 days of his term, meeting one of his election campaign pledges. Impacts The CICIES will probably have less autonomy than its Guatemalan and Honduran equivalents. The politicisation of anti-corruption debates threatens to hinder progress on the issue. Reducing corruption could weaken gangs’ influence over public institutions but will do little to ease violent crime.

Significance On May 8, Vice-President Roxana Baldetti resigned, following high-profile allegations that she was involved in a corruption network linked to the national tax agency. However, her resignation has not defused the situation, with major protests on May 16-17 calling for Perez Molina's departure. Impacts Public protests will continue and may increase in frequency before September elections, given public frustration with the political elite. The Perez Molina administration will now focus on trying to minimise the damage done by the corruption scandal. It will thus have little attention to spare for attempting to progress its legislative agenda in its final months in office. Longer-term, corruption revelations and the unprecedented public response may drive further anti-corruption initiatives.


Significance All the signs are that Xi will take a third term, though the secrecy of the political elite means alternatives cannot be ruled out completely.


Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.


Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.


Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.


Subject Morales pressures. Significance The UN-led International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the attorney general’s office on August 10 formally requested that the supreme court allow a legislative vote on whether President Jimmy Morales can be stripped of immunity from prosecution. Morales is facing investigation over allegations of illegal campaign financing, which undermine his stated commitment to combating corruption. Impacts Confrontation with the CICIG could affect aid financing from international donors, especially those linked to the UN. A successful push to remove Morales’s immunity would likely spark a series of similar motions against serving legislators. Popular frustration with the political establishment will position new, anti-corruption parties well for the elections in 2019.


Significance Kurz has said he wants a coalition agreement by the end of the month -- probably with the far-right populist Freedom Party (FPOe). Impacts Austria is likely to push for EU reforms on migration, border controls and social welfare benefits. The SPOe is struggling to find a niche in the party system and could face a long spell in opposition. The FPOe's rise to a potential government role will attract unwanted international attention. The political elite could be rejuvenated as younger Kurz supporters are promoted to top jobs in ministries and parliament.


Significance Biden’s choice will matter for all the normal reasons: running mates can help win votes, and every vice-president needs to be capable of stepping into the presidency and be popularly regarded as such. As Biden said in an interview earlier this month, he needs someone “if I were to walk away immediately from the office for whatever reason” who can become president and command public confidence. Impacts Biden will announce his running mate by August, when the Democratic Party’s convention will be held. At 74 and 78 respectively in 2021, Trump and Biden would be the oldest people to be inaugurated US president. Preparedness for another wave of COVID-19 and the state of the economy will be major election campaign issues.


Headline INTERNATIONAL: Digital taxes will test political elite


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Vishnu Juwono

There were high hopes that Gus Dur, after being appointed by the People Consultative Assembly (MPR) in 1999, would bring significant governance reform and more progressive anti-corruption measures for the first time because two top leaders (Gus Dur and Megawati) were from the opposition in the New Order era. This paper attempts to evaluate the governance reform and anti-corruption measures in 1999–2001. This paper argues that there was a valuable opportunity to push for further governance reforms and a bolder anti-corruption drive, as there was a legitimate political top leadership stemming from the free-and-fair election in 1999 embodied in the appointment of Gus Dur and Megawati Soekarnoputri as president and vice president, respectively, by the Consultative People Assembly (MPR). However, the political bickering and blatant competition over state resources for the election campaign in 2004 underlying Indonesia’s former government led to a setback in several governance reform areas, including judicial reform.


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