ASEAN and partners are far from sealing key trade pact

Significance Most of ASEAN’s dialogue partners will be present at the talks in Bangkok. High on the agenda will be attempts to conclude negotiations over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a projected free trade agreement (FTA) involving the ten ASEAN members and six dialogue partners with which the South-east Asian regional bloc has existing FTAs. Impacts ASEAN and China may announce progress on talks over a second draft of the South China Sea Code of Conduct, although this remains distant. Malaysia could renew calls for ASEAN to pressure Myanmar over the Rohingya crisis, testing the regional bloc’s unity. ASEAN members will likely adopt guidelines for cooperating on regulation of the digital economy and social media.

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019. Significance The early part of next year will feature important elections in some of South-east Asia's major economies. Meanwhile, financial volatility and a trade downturn pose risks to ASEAN economies. ASEAN under Thailand’s chairmanship will aim to advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea.


Significance Talks will be held virtually because of restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. A key focus will be finalisation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement (FTA) involving the ten ASEAN members and five of the bloc’s dialogue partners. Impacts Discussion at the summits about non-traditional security issues such as climate change are unlikely to result in substantive outcomes. Countries deemed to be at low risk from COVID-19 may push for a common framework to reboot business and leisure travel. Formal launch of a COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, announced at June’s ASEAN summit, may spur greater regional cooperation over the pandemic.


Subject Negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Significance ASEAN and China last month agreed on a first draft of a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea, where four South-east Asian countries and Beijing have conflicting maritime and territorial jurisdictional claims. China wants the CoC to be signed by 2021. As ASEAN-China negotiations continue, tensions are rising in the South China Sea between Beijing and Washington, which supports ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea, and between Beijing and the South-east Asian claimants. Impacts China-US friction over trade, the political crisis in Hong Kong and US arms sales to Taiwan will exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will come under growing pressure to recalibrate his pro-Beijing policy. Vietnam will step up its vigilance in the South China Sea while trying to manage tensions with China through bilateral discussions.


Significance South-east Asian countries are concerned about growing Chinese assertiveness and anxious about growing superpower rivalry in the region. Impacts ASEAN-China negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will resume in 2021 but be prolonged and contentious. South-east Asian claimants will refuse to make concessions to Beijing in return for COVID-19 vaccine supplies. Brunei, ASEAN’s 2021 chair, will work hard to maintain consensus among the bloc’s ten members over the South China Sea.


Significance Beijing’s announcement came shortly after it and 14 other Asia-Pacific countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA). Some US partners want Washington to join the CPTPP. Impacts As the largest economy in RCEP, China will have greater leverage in defining trade standards in the region. RCEP’s standardised rules of origin will enable its members to strengthen supply chains within the bloc. The United States remaining outside the CPTPP could diminish the pact’s appeal to the United Kingdom, which wants to become a member.


Significance All are aiming to revive economies badly hit by the pandemic’s fallout. The ten ASEAN states and five of the bloc’s dialogue partners recently signed a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement (FTA) that will progressively lower tariffs.


Significance The meeting comes against the backdrop of a diplomatic spat between Vietnam, Cambodia and Singapore over Vietnam’s 1978 military incursion into Cambodia. South-east Asian leaders will discuss regional economic integration, for example through the ASEAN Single Window (ASW) trade facility and the ASEAN-centred Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade pact. Impacts ASEAN members will aim to capitalise on shifting regional supply chains precipitated by the US-China trade dispute. ASEAN and China may next month complete the first reading of the single draft negotiating text for a South China Sea Code of Conduct. An upcoming ASEAN assessment of the Rohingya crisis will do little to stem global criticism of Myanmar’s treatment of the minority group.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Vaya Nabila Safitri

Research conducted to find out what was done by Australia-ASEAN in the economic field. The method used by researchers is deductive, in which the paragraphs are collected in general or the main idea of the paragraphs and then conclusions are drawn specifically. The type of research conducted is qualitative research in which collects data used by researchers, namely Library Studies (Library Research). Based on the results and discussion of ASEAN is an important part of economic prosperity in Australia. As a regional organization in the Southeast Asian region, ASEAN is currently the largest trading partner with Australia. Cooperation between Australia and ASEAN includes the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program (AADCP), the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA). Australia has welcomed the cooperation agreement. This cooperation agreement is important for trade in our region which will drive export opportunities for Australian businesses and facilitate more local employment.


Subject ASEAN-China security cooperation. Significance China-ASEAN security cooperation has moderated the assertiveness Beijing displayed in the South China Sea during the first half of this year. In October, China and the ASEAN states held their first ever joint naval exercise. Impacts The verbal statements on regional maritime security cooperation will increasingly be followed by concrete actions. Negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will advance slowly and contentiously. China-Philippines joint energy explorations in the South China Sea will remain hamstrung by Philippine constitutional conditions.


Significance South-east Asian leaders will discuss the South China Sea dispute, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar and regional trade. ASEAN’s eight dialogue partners, including the United States and China, will be present at the talks. Impacts An eventual Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is likely to include an air code recently agreed by ASEAN defence ministers. Myanmar could face EU trade sanctions over the Rohingya crisis. ASEAN is likely to boost cooperation over counterterrorism, cybersecurity and climate change.


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