Prospects for South-east Asia in 2021

Significance All are aiming to revive economies badly hit by the pandemic’s fallout. The ten ASEAN states and five of the bloc’s dialogue partners recently signed a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement (FTA) that will progressively lower tariffs.

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.


Subject South-east Asia's push for trade agreements. Significance Late last month, an Indonesian delegation led by Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita began a week of negotiations in Washington to lobby against the withdrawal of trade preferences for Indonesian exports to the United States. Meanwhile, South-east Asian states are involved in two major trade agreements: the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Impacts US trade reprisals against Indonesia could weaken Jakarta’s support for Washington’s diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US-China tariff escalation could prompt partners to redirect some of their trade, boosting trade between Taiwan and South-east Asia. ASEAN Economic Community integration will be slow despite progress in RCEP and the CPTPP.


Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019. Significance The early part of next year will feature important elections in some of South-east Asia's major economies. Meanwhile, financial volatility and a trade downturn pose risks to ASEAN economies. ASEAN under Thailand’s chairmanship will aim to advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea.


Significance Talks will be held virtually because of restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. A key focus will be finalisation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement (FTA) involving the ten ASEAN members and five of the bloc’s dialogue partners. Impacts Discussion at the summits about non-traditional security issues such as climate change are unlikely to result in substantive outcomes. Countries deemed to be at low risk from COVID-19 may push for a common framework to reboot business and leisure travel. Formal launch of a COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, announced at June’s ASEAN summit, may spur greater regional cooperation over the pandemic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Nghiem Thi Ngoan ◽  
Pham Ba Nam ◽  
Nguyen Thi Ngoc ◽  
To Minh Hieu ◽  
Dao Minh Phuong

Hiệp định đối tác kinh tế toàn diện khu vực (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership - RCEP) được ký kết ngày 15/11/2020, sau 8 năm đàm phán, là Hiệp định thương mại tự do (Free Trade Agreement - FTA) lớn nhất thế giới với sự tham gia của 10 nước thành viên ASEAN và 5 quốc gia gồm: Australia, Trung Quốc, Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc và New Zealand. Đến cuối lộ trình, giai đoạn năm 2035 - 2040, Việt Nam sẽ xóa bỏ thuế quan với khoảng 85,6 - 89,6% số dòng thuế với các nước đối tác và các nước đối tác xóa bỏ thuế quan cho Việt Nam trong khoảng 90,7 - 92% số dòng thuế. Bài báo so sánh thuế nhập khẩu của Việt Nam và thuế nhập khẩu của các nước (trong RCEP) từ Việt Nam và so sánh với biểu thuế của các FTA mà Việt Nam đã tham gia trực tiếp hoặc thông qua ASEAN đối với các sản phẩm chính của Tập đoàn Dầu khí Việt Nam (PVN) và các đơn vị thành viên gồm: xăng dầu, LPG, polypropylene (PP), urea, NPK, xơ, sợi. Từ đó, nhận diện cơ hội và thách thức trong hoạt động kinh doanh các sản phẩm này khi tham gia vào Hiệp định RCEP.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Deborah K. Elms

Abstract After eight years of effort, the 15 Asian members involved in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) met in a virtual ceremony to sign the final document on Sunday, 15 November 2020. The final deal matches the original objective – to knit the region together and allow firms to build supply chains across the region to deliver goods, services, and investment to Asian markets more seamlessly. Getting this free trade agreement (FTA) to this point involved repeated missed deadlines, the loss of one important negotiating partner, and thousands of miles of travel for a rotating cast of officials, trade ministers, and leaders. RCEP began in late 2012 as an effort to unravel what has often been called the ‘spaghetti or noodle bowl’ of overlapping and inconsistent rules that can impede trade. While most of the countries in the region have extensive experience in trade and are outward oriented, trade in Asia has been bedeviled with challenges. This includes a range of both tariff and non-tariff obstacles that have made it more difficult than might be expected to trade, especially for final products, within the region.


Subject The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Significance Shortly after Donald Trump was sworn in as US president on January 20, his administration announced withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. This leaves the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which unlike TPP includes China, as Asia's most ambitious planned regional trade agreement. The RCEP encompasses North-east Asia, South-east Asia, India, Australia and New Zealand. It has so far received less attention than the larger, more comprehensive TPP, but is now more likely to happen. Impacts The TPP's collapse leaves China as the leader of large-scale regional economic integration, with the RCEP as the main pillar. The RCEP will probably be more open to new members than the TPP would have been. The RCEP may enhance the regional and global role of China, potentially contributing to bilateral rivalry with the United States.


Significance Beijing’s announcement came shortly after it and 14 other Asia-Pacific countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA). Some US partners want Washington to join the CPTPP. Impacts As the largest economy in RCEP, China will have greater leverage in defining trade standards in the region. RCEP’s standardised rules of origin will enable its members to strengthen supply chains within the bloc. The United States remaining outside the CPTPP could diminish the pact’s appeal to the United Kingdom, which wants to become a member.


Significance Most of ASEAN’s dialogue partners will be present at the talks in Bangkok. High on the agenda will be attempts to conclude negotiations over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a projected free trade agreement (FTA) involving the ten ASEAN members and six dialogue partners with which the South-east Asian regional bloc has existing FTAs. Impacts ASEAN and China may announce progress on talks over a second draft of the South China Sea Code of Conduct, although this remains distant. Malaysia could renew calls for ASEAN to pressure Myanmar over the Rohingya crisis, testing the regional bloc’s unity. ASEAN members will likely adopt guidelines for cooperating on regulation of the digital economy and social media.


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