Poor Nigerian state finances portend political clashes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Indirect Financing

Subject Nigerian state finances. Significance Nigeria’s 36 states and local governments are largely in poor fiscal shape, with many states struggling to meet basic recurrent liabilities. Significant debt burdens also continue to limit several states' ability to spend. However, states have limited funding options compared with the federal government: indirect financing via the Central Bank of Nigeria is mostly closed, and opportunities for tapping domestic and foreign debt markets are severely restricted. Impacts Attempts to link bank accounts to tax identification numbers should help states clamp down on tax evasion. Amendments to the VAT rate and provisions for personal income taxes are likely to have varying effects on state revenue. A previous push by subnational leaders for national ‘restructuring’ is off the federal government’s agenda for the time being. Passage of the new Finance Bill is likely to be delayed, as states seek to determine the varying impacts on their revenues.

China will press on with financial reform and opening

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Reform ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type

Subject Financial reform and opening in China. Significance Despite trade disputes with the United States and risks in emerging markets, China's leaders are showing determination to open the country's financial sector further to foreign businesses. Impacts Local governments and banks will come under pressure from waves of corporate defaults, but wider panic is unlikely. Struggling enterprises will be less able to rely on debt to survive. The strong supervision of the financial sector seen in 2017 will persist as the authorities seek to reduce systemic risk. The precise timeline given by the central bank shows policymakers' confidence that risks are adequately contained.

Russian budget plan points to shift in priorities

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health Education ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Spending ◽  
Education And Health

Significance Plans for the next three years point to a rebalancing in the structure of expenditure, with greater emphasis on spending on health, education and support for the economy. Federal government spending is projected to remain approximately at current levels while declining as a proportion of GDP as the economy grows. Impacts Gains in living standards may be unevenly distributed across regions as welfare spending declines as a share of GDP. Financial pressures on local government may ease with higher federal spending on education and health. The Central Bank has been given a free hand to deal with banking sector stress, but this may change if the sector experiences a crisis.

Risks are high despite Turkey’s policy 'normalisation'

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Government

Significance With the lira at a record low, the Central Bank continued to tighten monetary policy this week, funding the market through competitive one-month repo tenders at rates of around 12.5%. In recent weeks, the government and Central Bank have taken a series of steps to modify the expansionary and in some cases unorthodox policies adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Foreign portfolio investors could shun the Turkish market for some more months, and the risk premium will remain high. Although this year’s annual contraction in GDP, at 3-4%, may be less severe than expected, the recovery may decelerate or be interrupted. The lira may fall further with concerns about foreign debt, forex reserves, budgets, inflation and financial stability persisting into 2021. Given the weak lira, the jobs crisis and high inflation, the government will struggle to persuade the public it has managed the crisis well.

scholarly journals Accounting for Tax Evasion Profiles and Tax Expenditures in Microsimulation Modelling. The BETAMOD Model for Personal Income Taxes in Italy

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 148-151
Author(s):  
Andrea Albarea ◽  
Michele Bernasconi ◽  
Cinzia Di Novi ◽  
Anna Marenzi ◽  
Dino Rizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Expenditures

scholarly journals Accounting for Tax Evasion Profiles and Tax Expenditures in Microsimulation Modelling. The BETAMOD Model for Personal Income Taxes in Italy

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Albarea ◽  
Michele Bernasconi ◽  
Cinzia Di Novi ◽  
Anna Marenzi ◽  
Dino Rizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Expenditures

scholarly journals Political Alignment, Attitudes Toward Government, and Tax Evasion

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-166
Author(s):  
Julie Berry Cullen ◽  
Nicholas Turner ◽  
Ebonya Washington
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Causal Role ◽  
Real World Evidence ◽  
Positive Outlook ◽  
Political Alignment

We ask whether attitudes toward government play a causal role in the evasion of US personal income taxes. As turnover elections move voters in partisan counties into and out of alignment with the party of the president, we find with alignment (i) taxpayers report more easily evaded forms of income; (ii) suspect EITC claims decrease; and (iii) audits triggered and audits found to owe additional tax decrease. Coupled with evidence that alignment leads to more favorable views on taxation and spending, our results provide real world evidence that a positive outlook on government lowers tax evasion. (JEL D72, H24, H26, H31)

Federal aggregate personal income tax evasion/unreported income and its real interest rate yield effects on longer-term treasury debt issues

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Cebula
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the impact of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion on the real interest rate yield on 10-year Treasury notes, 20-year Treasury bonds and 30-year US Treasury bonds. Design/methodology/approach An open-economy loanable funds model is developed, with income tax evasion expressly included in the specification in the form of the AGI (adjusted gross income) gap and the ratio of unreported AGI to actual AGI, expressed as a per cent. Findings The empirical estimations reveal compelling evidence that income tax evasion thus measured acts to elevate the real interest rate yields on 10-year Treasury notes and both 20-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, raising the possibility of a tax evasion-induced form of “crowding out”. Research limitations/implications Ideally, tax evasion data for a longer time period would be very useful. Practical implications To the extent that greater federal personal income tax evasion yields a higher interest rate yield on 10-year, 20-year and 30-year Treasury debt issues, it is likely that the tax evasion will also elevate other interest rates in the economy. Social implications Higher interest rates resulting from tax evasion would likely slow-down macroeconomic growth and accelerate unemployment. Originality/value Neither the tax evasion literature nor the interest rate literature has ever considered the impact of tax evasion behavior on long-term interest rates.

Pakistan’s currency devaluation may not spur exports

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Economic Stress ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Religious Parties ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Support Fund

Significance Pakistan's central bank last month allowed the currency to weaken by more than 4% in a week, and is hoping that devaluation will stimulate exports. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, is under pressure to ease the country’s economic stress, with elections due in July. Impacts Suspension of US Foreign Military Financing and Coalition Support Fund payments will add to economic stress. Concerns over foreign debt may increase protests over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Deals with religious parties in the run-up to the election may help the PML-N to divert attention from the economy.

Labor's Western Australia win renews federalism debate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
State Level ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fed State ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
The Right ◽  
Border Controls

Significance The campaign was dominated by tensions with the federal government over the border controls instituted by Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan as part of efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19 in the state. These tensions have fed state-level concerns about the increasing reach of the federal government in Canberra. Impacts Labor continues to dominate state governments across the country but remains in opposition at the federal level. States may seek a new revenue model, including the right to levy income taxes. Business groups may side with the states as they push for reforms in their relations with Canberra.

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