UAE's bolstering of Libya's Haftar is a risky policy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Arms Embargo ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Oil Embargo ◽  
Frozen Conflict

Significance Abu Dhabi has long played a leading but quiet role in the Libya conflict, providing extensive military support to LNA leader Khalifa Haftar over the years, violating a UN arms embargo on Libya. Impacts The Berlin peace process and Europe will lose influence and relevance in a worsening security environment. A prolonged conflict gives Russia more opportunity to entrench at low cost, increasing the likelihood of a long-term ‘frozen conflict’. Algeria and Tunisia may be provoked to step up diplomatic action, as they face the prospect of prolonged instability on their doorstep. The LNA’s oil embargo will continue, harming mainly ENI and Repsol, and possibly provoking fighting around oil terminals.

South Sudan peace process faces ingrained stagnation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

NATO disunity may undermine Warsaw summit agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Partner Status ◽  
Strong Signal ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Eastern Border ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Warsaw summit was held as the alliance seeks to develop a long-term posture for the turbulent security environment that has developed in and around Europe over the last five years. Policymakers in many NATO capitals saw the summit as a chance for the alliance to clarify its mission in light of security challenges along its eastern border and the Mediterranean rim. Given the United Kingdom's recent vote in favour of leaving the EU ('Brexit'), the summit also generated a sense of urgency in sending a strong signal of European political unity. Impacts Security relationships are likely to trump US concerns about internal constitutional arrangements in Poland and Turkey. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine will not be able to count on their NATO partner status in the event of a confrontation with Russia. US presidential candidate Donald Trump's call for significant NATO restructuring will find few natural allies in Washington or abroad.

Syria peace process unlikely in medium term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type

Headline SYRIA/US: Peace talks are a long-term prospect

Abu Dhabi seeks ‘smart power’ in the Horn of Africa

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Smart Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Facilities ◽  
The Military

Significance The move risks further exacerbating poor relations with Somalia. The UAE has a long-term commercial interest in the Somaliland port of Berbera, previously planned to include military facilities. However, the nature of Emirati engagement in the Horn of Africa is changing, as also reflected in the partial dismantling of the military base at Assab in Eritrea. Impacts The success of the UAE’s vaccination programme opens space for the export of vaccines to regional states to enhance its soft power. Emirati assets in the region may prove vulnerable to attacks by groups opposed to the UAE’s campaign against political Islam. In the post-Trump era, coercion of other regional countries to join the ‘Abraham Accords’ with Israel will be deprioritised.

Global airlines will need long-term productivity gains

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Productivity Gains

Subject Airline industry outlook. Significance The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that the global airline industry will record a fifth year of profitable operations in 2016. The average profit margin is foreseen at 5.6%, with the industry meeting the cost of capital for the second consecutive year. This is the first period of economic sustainability in the airline industry's history. Impacts Further consolidation is likely among North American airlines, but smaller carriers are reluctant to embark on major restructuring. In Asia, the appetite for looser alliances and joint ventures will prevail over mergers and acquisitions. Low-cost carriers offering cheap business class services, in addition to less expensive economy-class tickets, will pressure IATA members.

Martial law call could threaten Philippines’ Duterte

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Energy Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance He has now introduced martial law to Mindanao and confirmed yesterday that habeas corpus had also been suspended on the island. Impacts Internal security risks will likely delay or halt Mindanao investment pledges. This could hit Duterte’s development aims and dent his support in his Mindanao political heartland. The Philippines will seek Russian investment especially in tourism, energy, infrastructure and transport. Philippines-Russia trade will likely expand but this will be a long-term process, as will trade diversification. Retaliating against martial law, the New People's Army will conduct more attacks, underming the government-communist peace process.

Sudan’s road to comprehensive peace remains bumpy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
The Government

Significance Both sides expressed confidence that a full peace agreement can be concluded imminently. Impacts Mutual recriminations over insecurity in Darfur could delay or derail the peace process if this breeds conflict among key stakeholders. Delays in the peace process could force further delays in the transition from a UN-AU peacekeeping mission to a new UN political mission. Financing of the peace deal(s) could pose a major long-term threat to their stability, as the government struggles amid limited resources.

Examining the relationship between the economic environment and restaurant merger and acquisition activities

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 1054-1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jewoo Kim ◽  
Tianshu Zheng ◽  
Thomas Schrier
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Proper Time ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
Restaurant Industry ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine whether the economic environment affects the merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the restaurant industry. Design/methodology/approach The M&A transactions in the restaurant industry between 1981 and 2013 (n = 1,415) were examined. Data were collected from the Securities Data Corporation (SDC) database. Using an autoregressive distributed lag approach, this study developed three error correction models to explore the short- and long-term relationships between restaurant M&A activities and four macro-economic factors. Findings This study found that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the M&A activities and the four economic factors and that economic outlook had a significantly positive impact in the long term, while the effect of cost of debt was significantly negative in both the short and long terms. The findings suggest that restaurant firms are more likely to adopt M&A strategy when they are optimistic about the future economy and can take on debt at a low cost. Practical implications The findings of this study are expected to help practitioners make informative M&A decisions in the restaurant industry taking into consideration the economic environment. They will also help investors effectively manage their portfolios by predicting and ascertaining the proper time to invest in the restaurant industry based on the changes of economic environment. Originality/value No known study has been identified that examined the relationship between macro-economic factors and M&A activities in the restaurant industry. The findings of the study are expected to fill the gap in the literature by demonstrating the economic environment and the M&A activities in the restaurant industry are in a long-term equilibrium achieved by self-correction of their short-term disequilibrium.

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