Syria peace process unlikely in medium term

Headline SYRIA/US: Peace talks are a long-term prospect

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Stuart Holmes Rosenthal

Purpose Increasingly, the content that libraries collect is no longer on paper, a long-lived, medium whose technology changes very slowly and with which they have centuries of experience. Instead, it is stored on relatively short-lived digital media whose technology appears to change rapidly and with which they have little history. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The storage media industry is highly competitive and is currently evolving rapidly as flash, a solid state medium, displaces spinning disk from many applications. Long-term archival storage is a small part of the total storage market. It typically re-uses media and systems intended for more general bulk storage. Findings What are the medium-term prospects for change in this market? Originality/value Much of this material has appeared in blog posts and talks aimed at storage experts, such as the recent DARPA workshop on future of storage. It is presented here for a librarian audience with the necessary additional exposition and background.


Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.


Significance The Law and Justice (PiS) government has already enacted a bill changing the appointment system for the National Council of the Judiciary and another bill makes the justice minister solely responsible for selecting heads of district and appeal courts. After almost two years in power, the government is defying its critics and remains surprisingly strong and stable. It enjoys high popular support, presides over vigorous economic growth and has a stable working majority. Impacts Relative political stability and favourable economic conditions will encourage investors in the short-to-medium term. Concerns over the rule of law, especially judicial independence, may undermine Poland's long-term position. Growing political isolation will make it hard for Poland's voice to be heard in debates about the EU's future after Brexit.


Significance Abu Dhabi has long played a leading but quiet role in the Libya conflict, providing extensive military support to LNA leader Khalifa Haftar over the years, violating a UN arms embargo on Libya. Impacts The Berlin peace process and Europe will lose influence and relevance in a worsening security environment. A prolonged conflict gives Russia more opportunity to entrench at low cost, increasing the likelihood of a long-term ‘frozen conflict’. Algeria and Tunisia may be provoked to step up diplomatic action, as they face the prospect of prolonged instability on their doorstep. The LNA’s oil embargo will continue, harming mainly ENI and Repsol, and possibly provoking fighting around oil terminals.


Significance However, it failed to produce long-term solutions to a problem that not only affects the health of citizens and the rights of consumers, but also challenges the long-term national and global position of Germany's most vital industry. Impacts More legislation and detailed implementation strategies of a new national mobility concept are likely to come after the September election. Changes in road tax categories and the overhaul of government subsidies may incentivise the purchase of low-emission vehicles. The delicate balance between EU emission targets, national regulation and municipal implementation will remain a political challenge. Publicly coordinated (and possibly funded) scrap schemes for old diesel cars and investments in e-mobility are likely in the medium term.


Subject AMLO and business. Significance President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announced on February 18 the creation of an Investment, Employment and Growth Promotion Council. Led by his chief of staff, Alfonso Romo -- the agroindustry businessman who oversaw relations with business groups and investors during AMLO’s 2018 presidential campaign -- the council aims to improve relations between the public and private sectors with a view to doubling economic growth to 4% by the end of the administration's term in 2024. Impacts Businesses will welcome Romo’s return as a more prominent player within the administration but he has yet to prove his leverage with AMLO. The government’s discourse against the neoliberal economic model will continue to buttress AMLO’s support in the short-to-medium term. If AMLO continues to put infrastructure projects at the mercy of public consultations, investors will become increasingly wary of Mexico. In the long term, without tangible improvements in living standards, the government’s popularity will decline despite its rhetoric. Standard and Poor’s lowering of Mexico’s sovereign outlook on March 1 points to a possible rating downgrade, which would weigh on growth.


Significance As with the last two NDPs, the plan focuses heavily on major new infrastructure investments, especially on hydroelectric energy infrastructure. However, a marked economic slowdown following the COVID-19 crisis puts these plans in jeopardy. Impacts IMF and World Bank support of roughly USD790mn will help stabilise the economy, but the slowdown will still be significant. China’s appetite to offer development finance will be a key factor in the long-term viability of Uganda’s energy expansion plans. Medium-term concerns are exacerbated by slumping oil prices, which at current levels render Uganda’s oil resources economically unviable.


Author(s):  
Morten Kamp Andersen

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the question: human capital analytics (HR analytics) – are we there yet? It will seek to clarify what is meant by “being there yet” and it will argue that the most positive proponents for this field are way too optimistic about the current state and what impact it will have on HR in the short-to-medium term but that the long-term outlook remain positive for the field. Design/methodology/approach This is a viewpoint paper and the conclusions draw upon the author’s experience in the field. Findings It has been widely acknowledged that HR analytics is still a fairly immature field and has not yet reached its full potential. In this viewpoint, the author argues that the most positive proponents for this field are way too optimistic about the current state and what impact it will have on HR in the short-to-medium term but that the long-term outlook remains positive for the field. The author names four main reasons why HR analytics is still in its infancy: maturity, mindset, organization and competencies. Practical implications If these four aspects are addressed, the HR analytics function will be able to contribute much more to HR’s role as a value generator. Originality/value Focusing on these aspects will set HR analytics up for success and will lead to potentially large shareholder value creation.


Significance In fact, ten years after that conflict started, with President Bashar al-Assad still in control of two-thirds of the country, no foreign state shows any sign of making a major contribution to reconstruction, estimated to cost USD250bn-USD400bn. Impacts COVID-19’s economic impacts have further reduced the likelihood of Iran, Russia or Turkey making a new reconstruction push. International aid will remain concentrated on humanitarian goals, even as some development organisations point out the long-term pitfalls. In the medium term, donors may consider creating a special UN- or World Bank-administered trust fund for approved reconstruction.


Significance Zamili's remarks appear to signal Iraqi government concerns that the US-led international air campaign against the group is not going well. The effectiveness of airstrikes has been constrained by poor intelligence and strict rules of engagement; efforts to support local ground forces are at a standstill; and Iraqi offensive operations have virtually ground to a halt. Impacts Russia's strong intervention into Syria will not break the stalemate in either the fight against ISG or the Syrian civil war. The huge costs of a protracted campaign against ISG will further weaken Iraq's medium-term fiscal outlook. ISG's survival will limit Syrian Kurdish ambitions to establish a contiguous territory across northern Syria. It will also contain Syrian rebel forces, ensuring that the stalemate in the Syrian civil war continues. Continued flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria will ensure international terrorism threat persist over the long term.


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