France’s Macron faces tough choices on pension reform

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pension Reforms ◽  
Key Factor

Subject French pension reforms. Significance President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reform plans came to a halt in March. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Macron now has a crucial decision to make: to deliver on a key 2017 election pledge and prove that he is a reforming president, or focus everything on tackling the pandemic and rebuilding France’s society and economy ahead of the 2022 elections. Impacts Failure to recover quickly from the pandemic could well trigger anti-government protests and social unrest. A strong economic recovery is now the key factor determining Macron’s re-election chances. The defection of seven En Marche deputies weakens Macron in the legislature and creates pressure to adopt more left-wing policies.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Argentina reforms advance but carry political cost

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pension Reforms ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Political Cost ◽  
The Government

Significance Following its strong results in the October mid-term election, the government has been pressing tax and pension reforms and a new fiscal accord with provincial governors; all except the pension reform must now go to the Senate. The measures may ease investor concerns that the government’s inability to reduce the fiscal deficit could end in a new debt default. Impacts The tax reform’s effect on high tax pressure will be moderate at best. Provinces’ ability to reduce distortive taxes will depend on their ability to cut public spending. Changes to the pension system will prove especially conflictive politically.

Spain’s foreign investment appeal is under threat

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Regulatory Environment ◽  
Automotive Sector ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type

Significance Spain’s increasingly protectionist regulatory environment, and proposed tax and labour reforms, threaten to discourage investment. The foreign-owned automotive sector, which accounts for roughly 10% of GDP, is a source of particular concern. Impacts The ability to continue attracting FDI will be crucial for Spain’s economic recovery. The magnitude of the economic crisis may force the left-wing coalition to water down its changes to the 2012 labour reforms. Tourism and property will be among those sectors disproportionately affected by the ongoing uncertainty.

Labour reform will not end social unrest in Panama

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Infection ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
The Government

Significance Several workers’ unions launched protests in July in anticipation of the reform’s approval, claiming it undermines labour rights. The protests are symptomatic of growing frustration with the government’s efforts to mitigate the economic damage caused by COVID-19 lockdown measures. Impacts Panama’s economic struggles will be exacerbated by an ongoing trade spat with neighbouring Costa Rica. Increased protests will present major infection risks, perpetuating the challenges facing the government. Any surge in COVID-19 cases requiring a return of lockdown measures would further weigh on attempts to spark an economic recovery.

Economic progress will be slow to materialise in Sudan

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Economic reform efforts in Sudan. Significance Economic hardship was a key factor in the protests that began in December 2018 and culminated in April 2019 in the ouster of long-time President Omar al-Bashir. The new post-Bashir government has made economic recovery one of its top priorities. However, three decades of (mis)rule mean many economic challenges are deeply entrenched. Impacts Inflation may quickly erode the benefits of salary and wage increases. Pressure for a limited devaluation of the Sudanese pound will grow. Public dissatisfaction about economic conditions will remain high.

Prospects for Colombia in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Fresh Start ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Colombia in 2022. Significance With vaccine and economic growth figures suggesting Colombia may be emerging from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, legislative and presidential elections in March and May offer the prospect of a symbolic fresh start. Recent social unrest appears to have subsided and economic recovery has unemployment on the wane. Persistent challenges such as poverty and insecurity nevertheless look sure to test the new government from early in its term.

Clientelism will not avail Greek ruling party in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Education Reforms ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The agreement settles the Macedonian ‘name dispute' that has bedevilled bilateral relations since the mid-1990s. Foreign, not social, issues have taken centre stage in politics. Yet the economic crisis is not over for many socio-economic groups: the economic recovery is fragile and social assistance still haphazard. Impacts Enduring economic inequalities will disincentivise the highly skilled young who will prefer opportunities abroad to low-paid jobs in Greece. Syriza’s reversal of modernising education reforms will deepen inequalities with many failing to gain the skills needed in the 21st century. Inequalities may further radicalise frustrated youth, feeding into far-right anti-parliamentarism or left-wing urban terrorism.

West African governments will struggle with unrest

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
West Africa ◽  
West African ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
Roll Out

Significance This is due to a combination of factors, including high rates of vaccine hesitancy and inadequate supply to meet current demand. The Omicron variant has raised fears that economic recovery could be stifled. Meanwhile, inflation has increased in the region amid political and social unrest in many of its countries. Impacts Vaccine roll-out will continue to lag in West Africa. Coastal states may experience an uptick in jihadist attacks in border areas. Public sector strikes and street protests will occur frequently across the region.

France’s regional results intensify presidential race

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pension Reforms

Significance Neither Macron’s La Republique en Marche (LREM) nor Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) managed to win any of the country’s 13 regions. The main winner was the centre-right Republican Party (LR), to the extent that it hopes to overhaul Macron in the first round of next year’s presidential election. Impacts If internal party pressure forces Le Pen to adopt a more hard-line stance, she risks alienating centre-right voters. Electoral considerations will make Macron wary of imposing future COVID-19-related restrictions. While pursuing pension reforms prior to 2022 could improve Macron’s reformist credentials, it risks provoking more social unrest.

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