Labour reform will not end social unrest in Panama

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Infection ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
The Government

Significance Several workers’ unions launched protests in July in anticipation of the reform’s approval, claiming it undermines labour rights. The protests are symptomatic of growing frustration with the government’s efforts to mitigate the economic damage caused by COVID-19 lockdown measures. Impacts Panama’s economic struggles will be exacerbated by an ongoing trade spat with neighbouring Costa Rica. Increased protests will present major infection risks, perpetuating the challenges facing the government. Any surge in COVID-19 cases requiring a return of lockdown measures would further weigh on attempts to spark an economic recovery.

Costa Rica’s OECD membership may assist its recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts

Significance Admission to the group demonstrates international confidence in Costa Rica’s economic management, even as the government struggles with the prolonged negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. OECD accession should provide an economic boost for Costa Rica, alongside domestic stimulus measures. Impacts The benefits of OECD membership will be felt well beyond the immediate post-pandemic period. OECD accession will help encourage more foreign investment into Costa Rica, potentially giving it advantages over neighbouring Panama. Costa Rican economic recovery may spur more migration from Nicaragua, especially if repression there worsens as November’s elections near.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Central America elections pose risks of unrest

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Central America ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Political Expression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Campaigning will be muted, as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will constrain public events. Government handling of the crisis will be a consideration for voters, alongside more traditional issues such as insecurity, perceived corruption and poor economic opportunities. Dramatic improvements in such areas will remain elusive, whoever secures election. Impacts State weakness will hinder governments’ abilities to face health challenges and roll out vaccine programmes. Perceived impunity for politicians suspected of wrongdoing will drive unrest, especially if peaceful political expression is constrained. Costa Rica has no elections this year, but post-pandemic economic damage could hit government support ahead of 2022 polls. Economic hardship will drive more US-bound migration; an issue that will be formative for new governments’ relations with Washington.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Diversification will be hard amid Kazakhstan slowdown

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
The Government

Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

New Cyprus parliament will be tougher to deal with

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Republic Of Cyprus ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Subject The May 22 parliamentary elections. Significance The elections had the lowest turnout in the history of the Republic of Cyprus and brought about significant changes in the composition of the chamber. They were conducted amid a climate of fragile economic recovery and talks with the Turkish Cypriots on reunification. The outcome was a weakening of parliamentary support for the talks and a louder voice for nationalist, anti-austerity and anti-reform views. Impacts The government that is in place will not be affected because Cyprus has a presidential system. However, the lack of a parliamentary majority could hinder the Cypriot economy's fragile recovery. Resolving the division of Cyprus problem would be a significant positive boost for the very insecure Eastern Mediterranean.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Azerbaijan looks to gas as oil's importance wanes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Impact

Subject Impact of oil output cuts on Azerbaijan. Significance Azerbaijan has agreed to cut oil production in the first half of 2017 in support of the agreement reached by OPEC and non-OPEC states. It can ill afford a further loss of revenues, but the bigger picture is that oil production is already on a downward curve. Impacts To avoid social unrest, the government will need to allocate spending to mitigate the impact of rising prices. Fiscal pressures may rein in lavish spending on Russian military hardware. The government will maintain strong ties with Turkey as an export route and security ally.

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