Hong Kong security law will trigger fierce backlash
Subject The impact of Beijing introducing national security legislation for Hong Kong. Significance China’s central government is using a process that bypasses Hong Kong’s legislature to pass a law that criminalises ‘sedition’ in Hong Kong and allows mainland state security organs to operate there. This will reduce the scope of political freedoms and autonomy in Hong Kong. Impacts Activist and confrontational factions within the protest movement will probably gain more influence over moderate elements. A legislative election on September 6 is likely to proceed as planned; opposition candidates will probably do well. Western governments, firms and NGOs will feel pressure to lower their stakes in Hong Kong. Mainland Chinese firms will probably fill the vacuum, tying Hong Kong’s economy more closely to the mainland’s. Regional cities such as Singapore, Tokyo and Taipei will probably benefit.