IS will retain a small but potent presence in Libya

Significance Weakened and dispersed since it was driven from its stronghold in Sirte in late 2016, IS has struggled to reassert itself, though it remains capable of carrying out attacks. Impacts Key state institutions in Tripoli will remain vulnerable to attacks by IS sleeper cells, as in late 2018. IS militants are likely to launch new attacks on energy infrastructure, particularly around the Sirte Basin and in Fezzan. IS's presence in Libya -- and its potential to exploit political power struggles -- will further deter foreign investment.

Significance Military courts have been bolstered under President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, who was re-elected in March for a second four-year term. His tenure has been marked by rising repression. Impacts Draconian responses to any sense of threat to regime stability can be expected. Opportunities for dissent by state institutions not affiliated with the military will decrease. Major business deals with foreign investors will remain secure regardless of domestic power struggles. Lucrative deals with foreign investors in energy and real estate are likely to bolster Sisi’s position for the coming years.


Subject Succession in Gulf Arab states. Significance While most systems in the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) vaguely follow patrilineal primogeniture, irregularities have occurred in each case, complicating claims of rightful leadership and making patterns less predictable. With younger generations coming to the fore in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular, questions of lawful succession are becoming more relevant. Impacts Democratic reforms are unlikely, even more so thanks to US withdrawal from Gulf domestic concerns. Participation in government will be filtered through state institutions, rather than emerging independently. Foreign investment could be damaged by political uncertainty over succession issues and upcoming generational changes in Kuwait and Oman.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Ha ◽  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Gazi Hassan

PurposeThis study focuses on the linkages between foreign direct investment and the research and development (R&D) and innovation activity of domestic enterprises in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachThe Heckman selection model approach is applied to a panel dataset of nearly 7,000 Vietnamese firms for the 2011–2015 study period to investigate the impact of foreign presence on the R&D of local firms through horizontal and vertical linkages. Probit model estimation is employed to examine how foreign investment influences the innovation activity of local companies.FindingsWhile there are a small number of firms carrying out R&D activities in Vietnam, foreign or joint domestic–foreign venture firms are less inclined than domestic firms to undertake R&D. Domestic factors that include capital, labor quality, location and export status of firm have a significant effect on the decision of domestic firms to participate in R&D activity. Only forward linkages and the gross firm output are found to have an impact on the R&D intensity of domestic enterprises, while other factors appear to have no significant influence on how much firms spend on R&D activities.Practical implicationsIn order to promote the R&D activity of domestic firms, policy should focus on (1) the backward linkages between local firms in downstream sectors with their foreign suppliers in upstream sectors, and (2) the internal factors such as labor, capital or location that affect the decisions made by domestic firms.Originality/valueGiven that foreign investment may affect R&D and innovation activity of local firms in host countries, the impact is relatively unexplored for many emerging economies and not so in the case of Vietnam. The availability of a unique survey on Vietnamese firm technology and competitiveness provides the opportunity to address this gap in the literature.


Significance At the beginning of 2021, the ZP coalition of the Law and Justice (PiS), Accord and United Poland (SP) parties is stable, but not as strong as it has been in previous years. This weakening in the PiS-led government’s condition is due to many factors, among which the coronavirus pandemic is one of the most important. Impacts The process will continue of subordinating any independent state institutions still left to party control. PiS will take further, similar steps regarding the media, academia and NGOs. After months of pandemic lockdown, the state of the economy is stable if not ideal, and will not lead to early elections.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


Significance The plan includes ambitious reforms and investment projects, but the Commission’s critical first reactions highlight questions around the feasibility of some of these reforms and the state’s capacity to implement them. The Commission will approve or reject the plan by September 30. Impacts Power struggles within the National Liberals, the senior coalition party, could weaken government ability to implement planned reforms. Success is important for the junior coalition party coordinating the plan, USR-PLUS, whose appeal relies on its expertise and competence. In several eastern EU states, the RRF could further entrench state capture and clientelistic networks.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (35) ◽  
pp. 38-51
Author(s):  
Marţian Iovan

Abstract The author analyzes in this paper principles and ides of philosophy of law issued by Mircea Djuvara, which preserve their contemporaneity, being useful for the perfecting of the state institutions and of the democracy not only at national level, but also at European Union one. His ideas and logical demonstration on the rational fundamentals of law, the autonomy of the moral and legal conscience, the specificity of truth and of juridical knowledge, the philosophical substantiation of power and Constitution, the principles of the democracy and the connections between the political power and the law are just few of the original elements due to which Djuvara became an acknowledged and respected personality not only in Romania, but also in the experts clubs of the Europe between the two World Wars.


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