Ethiopia teeters on the brink of civil war

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Desert Locust ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Intervention ◽  
The Military

Significance These developments threaten to ignite a multi-dimensional civil war pitting Tigrayan against federal and Amhara regional forces. Impacts The conflict will test the cohesion of the military, which was once dominated by Tigrayans but has been undergoing reforms under Abiy. Abiy is likely to view international intervention as a sign of loss of control and may reject mediation offers. Amhara forces may try to reclaim ‘historic’ Amhara areas that Tigray allegedly arrogated, potentially displacing many Tigrayans. Alongside desert locust swarms in parts of the country, including Tigray, the conflict may worsen food security risks. Elections tentatively rescheduled for May or June 2021 may be postponed again.

Ecuador’s military faces cuts as security risks build

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.

Russia risks mission creep as Syrian rebels dig in

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Population Displacement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mission Creep ◽  
Leadership Decapitation ◽  
The Military

Significance Since the start of Russian airstrikes last September, the rebels have suffered their largest territorial loss to the regime in two years. The new counter-insurgent strategy involves weakening the opposition through ground offensives, rebel leadership decapitation and population displacement. The Russian intervention has so far succeeded in removing the possibility of regime collapse in the foreseeable future. However, Moscow's ability to reshape military dynamics has its limits. Impacts Russian air strikes will foster the rebel movement's internal cohesion as well as that of their foreign backers. The stalemate in the civil war will persist, extending the conflict. Diplomacy will make little headway as a result of the military stalemate. Refugee flows into Turkey will increase, while those south into Jordan will decline. Radicalisation will increase in the insurgency, empowering groups such as al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra.

'Biafra' protests spur new security risks for Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Chinua Achebe ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Pipelines ◽  
Literary Output

Significance Kanu's arrest in October on treason and other charges ignited deadly protests in ethnic Igbo-dominated regions, spurring speculation of a violent revival of the Biafran separatism that caused the 1967-70 Civil War. Impacts Elders in Igbo communities outside the south-east will strike a conciliatory tone with other groups, reducing the risk of clashes. Literary output by Igbo authors such as Chinua Achebe will add to nostalgia for the Biafran cause among the global diaspora. Niger Delta militants will threaten further attacks on oil pipelines to pressure Buhari to continue their amnesty payments beyond 2017. Political fallout from the army raid on a Shia sect in December risks escalating Shia-Sunni tensions.

International ground force unlikely in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Intervention

Significance While intensified air attacks will help weaken and contain ISG, they will not destroy it unless accompanied by a substantial ground force to defeat ISG on the ground. However, the lack of workable military solutions to the Iraqi and Syrian conflicts, and the legacy of the Afghanistan and Iraq interventions mean that the United States and other allies are averse to carrying out a large-scale ground deployment. Impacts Without robust international intervention, Syria's civil war will drag on for years, enabling ISG to hold onto significant territory. A large-scale US ground force operation would risk enflaming anti-US sentiment and escalating the geopolitical rivalry with Iran and Russia. Proxy forces and militia groups will embed themselves in Syrian and Iraqi politics, weakening central government. Threat of attacks by ISG- and al-Qaida-linked jihadists in the West will increase. Russia and Iran's much greater military role in Syria compared to the West will give them a much greater say on the conflict's outcome.

El Salvador military action raises concerns

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Image ◽  
Security Operations ◽  
The Military ◽  
To Receive

Subject Bukele and congress. Significance Salvadoran troops on February 9 occupied the Legislative Assembly at the invitation of President Nayib Bukele. The occupation was intended as a high-profile stunt to pressure legislators into approving Bukele’s request for extra security funding. In reality, it revived memories of the country’s brutal civil war, sparking domestic and international criticism, undermining Bukele’s domestic and international image and probably bringing his honeymoon period to an abrupt end. Impacts The military is now less likely to take part in large-scale security operations given concerns raised by its visible presence. Bukele’s new anti-corruption body is set to receive less funding and powers via congressional grant. Bukele will maintain his antagonistic stance ahead of the 2021 elections, where he hopes to boost his party’s legislative presence.

From local separatism to foreign intervention: Tripolitania under Yusuf Pasha (1795-1832)

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (10-3) ◽  
pp. 264-273
Author(s):  
Natalya Zherlitsina
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ottoman Empire ◽  
The State ◽  
International Intervention ◽  
Foreign Intervention ◽  
The Right ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
The Military

Аbstract. The article examines the period of rule of Yusuf Pasha, Governor of Tripoli, a province of the Ottoman Empire. During the thirty-seven years of his rule, the Pasha seemed to have taken the right steps, consistent with his era and the state of the country, aimed at strengthening the sovereignty, centralizing power and strengthening the military potential of Tripoli. However, it was his rule that led to a crisis in the 1830s, culminating in the restoration of direct rule by the Ottoman Empire. The contradictory results of Yusuf Pasha’s rule are related both to the rivalry within the dynasty itself, which led to two stages of civil war, and to increased international intervention in the internal situation in Tripoli.

Civil War and international intervention in the Russian North: a critical review of the book by an Israeli historian

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (10-4) ◽  
pp. 265-272
Author(s):  
Vladislav Goldin ◽  
Flera Sokolova ◽  
Alexander Shaparov
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
International Intervention ◽  
Russian North

CIVIL WAR AND INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH: A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE BOOK BY AN ISRAELI HISTORIAN

Food security in Papua New Guinea: the need to go beyond “business case CSR”

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernanda de Paiva Duarte ◽  
Benedict Young Imbun
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Community Relations ◽  
Design Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Level Of Satisfaction ◽  
Corporate Social

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to canvass the views of villagers from a remote region of Papua New Guinea (PNG) on food security issues in their community and their level of satisfaction with food security initiatives provided by the extractive company that operated on their land. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative design: data gathered through 14 semi-structured, face-to-face interviews and a discussion forum with 20 villagers from Pawa. Purposive sampling. Snow-balling method of recruitment. Findings Food security was identified as a growing concern among the villagers, who also expressed dissatisfaction with the food security projects offered through the corporate social responsibility (CSR) program offered by the company operating on their land. Communication problems between company and community and lack of trust were evident. Research limitations/implications Possibility of self-selection bias among participants. The perspective of the company was under-represented. Practical implications The study highlights the need for CSR practitioners to be mindful of the importance of effective communication with local communities. Social Implications The study reveals the importance of meaningful dialogue between company and host communities, which can lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and empowerment of host communities. Originality/value The study bridges a research gap in the field of CSR in developing countries because food security, as a CSR issue in PNG communities, is under-researched. The study contributes to a better understanding of company –community relations in PNG and how these relations can be improved through a more normative approach to CSR. It also highlights the importance of empowering host communities through meaningful dialogue.

The Kurdish Civil War and Peace Negotiations, 1994–1998

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962110624
Author(s):  
Dana Ali Salih ◽  
Hawre Hasan Hama
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
War And Peace ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Contingency Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Military

The Kurdish Civil War between the military forces of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) began in 1994. Despite frequently occurring peace talks throughout the conflict, negotiations failed to bring about a durable settlement until the United States brokered the Washington Peace Agreement in 1998. This research explores why the earlier negotiations were unsuccessful, and whether it was only the US mediation in 1998 which made the difference. Although the US mediation was clearly an important factor, by employing the contingency model this research argues that both contextual variables and process variables determined the success of negotiations in 1998. Furthermore, they can explain the failure of the previous 4 years of negotiations.

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