El Salvador military action raises concerns

Subject Bukele and congress. Significance Salvadoran troops on February 9 occupied the Legislative Assembly at the invitation of President Nayib Bukele. The occupation was intended as a high-profile stunt to pressure legislators into approving Bukele’s request for extra security funding. In reality, it revived memories of the country’s brutal civil war, sparking domestic and international criticism, undermining Bukele’s domestic and international image and probably bringing his honeymoon period to an abrupt end. Impacts The military is now less likely to take part in large-scale security operations given concerns raised by its visible presence. Bukele’s new anti-corruption body is set to receive less funding and powers via congressional grant. Bukele will maintain his antagonistic stance ahead of the 2021 elections, where he hopes to boost his party’s legislative presence.

Significance Although large-scale social protest in Bahrain has been cowed over the ten years since the ‘Arab uprisings’, small-scale demonstrations recur, reflecting a base level of discontent. Mobilising issues include economic pressures, limited political representation (especially of the Shia majority) and, most recently, ties with Israel. Impacts Despite protests, Israel’s and Bahrain’s respective ambassadors will keep up high-profile activity and statements. The authorities are likely to exaggerate the role of Iranian interference in order to deepen the Sunni-Shia divide. If Riyadh manages to extricate itself from the Yemen war, that could partly reduce the pressure on Manama.


Significance Some MPs called for this action in the wake of the storming of the US Capitol last month, but the move has been considered for some time following concerns about extremism within the military. Impacts The growth of extremism is linked to a growing divide between conservative white rural areas and cosmopolitan cities. Separatist sentiment in the western provinces may develop a newly radical element from links to extremism. The business sector may face some disruption from an increase in protests and demonstrations. Canada’s reputation for welcoming immigrants could be damaged if there are high-profile incidents involving white supremacists.


Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.


Subject Amnesty law implications. Significance On July 13, the Supreme Court declared unconstitutional a civil-war amnesty law, which has been in force since 1993. This has led to fears of investigations against current politicians, and warnings that political stability could be undermined. Impacts The fall-out from the Supreme Court ruling will place a renewed focus on the independence of El Salvador's judiciary. The fact that both main parties are involved may discourage politicians from engaging in tit-for-tat allegations. There will be considerable military pressure on ARENA to oppose reopening civil-war cases.


Significance The most serious challenger to President Alassane Ouattara's re-election, N'Guessan's candidacy probably marks the end of election boycotts by FPI, but rifts linger from the 2010-11 civil war. Impacts Large-scale infrastructure investments will facilitate medium-term economic growth, despite possible volatility around the election. Foreign investors are likely to refrain from making major decisions before the poll but inflows will pick up in 2016. High user fees for the new Henri Konan Bedie toll bridge in Abidjan will probably reduce congestion by commuters. High global cocoa prices and robust output (Ivory Coast is the world's largest producer) will buoy government revenues.


Subject Belize migration and security. Significance High levels of gang-related violence, and a tougher approach to migration in the United States, have sparked a surge in refugees seeking to enter Belize from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. However, Belizean authorities are reluctant to receive them, citing concerns about the potential for increased gang activity. Impacts Belize’s location could see it become an important transit point in the international drug trade. There is potential for conflict between Central American and Belizean gangs. Costa Rica’s strong institutions make it relatively well equipped to deal with an influx of refugees.


Subject The political role of the armed forces. Significance The armed forces have recently assumed an unusually high political profile. The current government has appointed generals to high-level positions and ordered a large-scale intervention led by the army in Rio de Janeiro state security institutions. These measures, many of them unprecedented, are an attempt by President Michel Temer to boost his popularity as a ‘tough-on-crime’ leader. The armed forces are one of the few public institutions enjoying high levels of trust among Brazilians. Impacts Despite recent protest calls for a military coup, support for such a move is restricted to a radical minority. Resistance against further reliance on the military for domestic law enforcement will rise, including among senior officers. Bolsonaro will focus his message on crime, promising to bring more military members into his cabinet, including the Education Ministry.


Author(s):  
William D. Stanley

El Salvador experienced five decades of direct military rule from 1931 through 1982, followed by a semi-authoritarian phase from 1982 to 1992 during which elected civilians ostensibly governed while the military retained veto power and impunity. Twelve years of civil war produced significant political change, and a 1992 peace settlement finally brought constitutional and institutional reforms that curbed the military’s political power. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the armed forces had a somewhat informal structure, and while coups d’état occurred periodically, the military was more the tool of powerful individuals than the source of their power. An uncompetitive electoral system in the early 20th century broke down in 1931 after a combination of political reforms and financial crisis undermined civilian authority, and a coup enabled the minister of defense to seize power. Shortly thereafter, the fledgling military government suppressed a peasant uprising with extreme violence, thereby consolidating its own position and discouraging challenges from oligarchic elites. Initially military rule was personalistic, with power vested in General Maximiliano Hernández Martínez, but in the 1940s this transitioned to a more institutional system in which the officer corps collectively shaped the broad outlines of how the country would be governed and prevented any one leader from dominating. For over 30 years the institutional military government sought to achieve a degree of legitimacy through controlled elections, repressed opposition when it grew too strong, promoted economic growth, and implemented mild social reforms that always stopped short of challenging oligarchic interests. The military’s strategy failed to resolve severe social and political tensions that arose from the country’s highly unequal distribution of land and income. The military faced popular demands for access to land and adequate wages, while the agrarian elite resisted any reform. Factional strife broke out regularly within the military over whether to rely mainly on repression to contain social and political demands, or to break with the oligarchy and deliver deeper reforms. The result was an inconsistent policy that occasionally created political space for opposition and then violently closed it. By the late 1970s there were massive protests and the beginnings of armed insurgency. Outright civil war began in 1980, and the country began a partial transition to civilian rule in 1982. Despite ample help from the United States, the military failed to defeat the insurgents. In 1990, the conservative elected civilian government began negotiating with the insurgents, leading to accords that definitively excluded the military from political power. After 1992 the country struggled with a sluggish economy and pervasive crime, and questions remained about past human rights crimes. The political system was genuinely democratic, featuring unrestricted debate and a wide range of political ideologies. The military remained largely subordinate to civil authority under governments of both the right and the left. Yet legacies of authoritarianism persisted, and in 2020 a populist elected civilian president called on the military for political support and used it to detain people unlawfully during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject The implications of deploying troops domestically as a counter to terrorism. Significance In the aftermath of the attacks against the Paris offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, France deployed thousands of troops to patrol the streets and protect potential targets. The role of the military in domestic counterterrorism is a long-standing and controversial issue. Public pressure on decisionmakers to respond to terrorist attacks can be immense, yet the effectiveness of deploying the military domestically on a large scale is debatable. Impacts Large-scale troop deployments can have a negative effect on tourism. More visible patrols provide more targets for terrorists. They could also alienate those communities whose support is needed to combat extremism.


Significance Since the start of Russian airstrikes last September, the rebels have suffered their largest territorial loss to the regime in two years. The new counter-insurgent strategy involves weakening the opposition through ground offensives, rebel leadership decapitation and population displacement. The Russian intervention has so far succeeded in removing the possibility of regime collapse in the foreseeable future. However, Moscow's ability to reshape military dynamics has its limits. Impacts Russian air strikes will foster the rebel movement's internal cohesion as well as that of their foreign backers. The stalemate in the civil war will persist, extending the conflict. Diplomacy will make little headway as a result of the military stalemate. Refugee flows into Turkey will increase, while those south into Jordan will decline. Radicalisation will increase in the insurgency, empowering groups such as al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra.


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